Executive Summary .................... 5
SWOT Analysis .............. ...... 6
Sudan Political SWOT .................. ........ 6
Sudan Economic SWOT .................. ...... 7
Sudan Business Environment SWOT ................ ....... 7
Global Political Outlook .............. 8
Global Hotspots: Eurozone, MENA, Afghanistan And Korea ............ .. 8
Table: Election Timetable, 2012 ................ ... 14
United States .................. ... 16
Latin America ..................17
Western Europe ........................ 19
Central, Eastern And South Eastern Europe ................. 20
Russia And The Former Soviet Union ................ ... 21
Middle East And North Africa .................... 23
Sub-Saharan Africa .................. ... 25
Asia ......................... 27
Wild Cards To Watch .................. ........ 32
Security Risk Analysis .............. 35
Defence And Security Ratings ..................... 35
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings ............ ...... 35
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index ..........36
Political Overview ............37
Domestic Politics ...................... 37
Foreign Policy .......................... 39
Security Overview ............42
Internal Security Overview .................. .... 42
Conflict In Darfur ..................... 42
Justice And Equality Movement .................. 48
North-South Civil War .................. ...... 50
Security Threat In South Sudan ................... 55
External Security Situation .................. .... 56
Sudan And Uganda .................. ... 56
Relationship With Washington .................... 57
Sudan And Ethiopia .................. .. 58
Sudan And Chad: From Enemies To Friends ................ 58
South Sudan And The East Africa Community .............. .. 59
Sudan And Israel ....................... 59
Armed Forces .............. ...... 61
Arms Trade Overview .................. ....... 62
Industry Forecast Scenario ............ ..... 64
Armed Forces ..................64
Table: Armed Forces, 2001-2008 (000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) .......... ..... 64
Table: Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) ...... .... 64
Defence Expenditure .................. .. 65
Defence Expenditure .................. .. 65
Table: Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 ..............65
Table: Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) .......... 66
Arms Trade .................... ... 66
Table: Sudans Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) ................... 67
Key Risks To BMIs Forecast Scenario .............. ... 68
Macroeconomic Forecast ................ ... 68
Table: Sudan – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 .............. .. 69
BMI Methodology ............71
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ................... 71
Defence Industry ....................... 71
Sources .................... .. 72