China Telecommunications Report Q4 2009

Executive Summary ..................................................................7
SWOT Analysis....8
China Wireline (Fixed-Line and Broadband) Business Environment SWOT .................................. 8
China Mobile Business Environment SWOT............ 9
China Political SWOT ............................................ 10
China Economic SWOT ......................................... 11
China Business Environment SWOT...................... 12
Business Environment Rankings ...........................................13
Asia........ 13
China ..... 16
Table: Asia Telecoms Business Environment Rankings ............................................................... 17
Industry Forecast Scenario....................................................18
Mobile .................................................................... 18
Table: China Telecoms Sector – Mobiles – Historical Data & Forecasts....................................... 18
ARPU ..................................................................... 20
Table: China ARPU................................................ 20
Fixed Line............................................................... 21
Table: China Telecoms Sector – Fixed Lines – Historical Data & Forecasts ................................. 21
Internet.................................................................... 22
Table: China Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts ....................................... 22
Market Data Analysis ..............................................................24
Mobile Market ........................................................ 24
Table: China Mobile Market, June 2009................ 24
Subscriber Mix ....................................................... 25
ARPU & MOU....................................................... 26
Table: China ARPU Levels, 2007-Q109................. 26
3G..... 27
3G Industry Developments ..................................... 29
Mobile Contract Wins.................................................. 31
Table: Mobile Contract Wins, (2009) ..................... 31
Mobile Content ............................................................ 32
Regional Outlook.................................................... 32
Table: Asia VAS Market By Service (US$bn)........ 32
Country Outlook ..................................................... 33
Table: China Mobile VAS Revenues (CNYbn) ...... 33
SMS........................................................................ 34
Ringtones................................................................ 34
Mobile Broadband .................................................. 35
Mobile Gaming....................................................... 35
Mobile TV.............................................................. 36
Value-Added Services Timeline .................................. 37
Table: Selected VAS Services Launched, 2008-2009................................................................... 37
Regional Mobile Markets............................................. 38
East China............................................................... 38
East China Regional Mobile Markets ..................... 38
Guangdong ............................................................. 39
Zhejiang.................................................................. 40
Shanghai ................................................................. 40
Beijing .................................................................... 41
West China .................................................................. 43
West China Regional Mobile Markets .................... 43
Sichuan ................................................................... 44
Chongqing .............................................................. 44
Central China............................................................... 46
Central China Regional Mobile Markets................. 46
Hubei ...................................................................... 46
Mobile Operator Data .................................................. 48
China Mobile .......................................................... 48
China Unicom......................................................... 50
Fixed Line.................................................................... 52
Table: China Local Access Market, May 2009 ....... 52
Regional Fixed-Line Markets ...................................... 54
East China............................................................... 55
East China Regional Fixed-Line Markets ............... 55
Central China.......................................................... 57
Central China Regional Fixed-Line Market ............ 57
West China ............................................................. 58
West China Regional Fixed-Line Markets .............. 58
Broadband.................................................................... 60
China Telecom........................................................ 60
China Unicom......................................................... 61
Broadband Content ................................................. 61
Table: China's Internet Applications, 2008 ............. 62
Handset Manufacturers ........................................... 64
Table: Nokia Mobile Device (mn) And Equipment Net Sales (EURmn) By Region..................... 64
Regulatory Environment.........................................................67
China: Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities.................................................................. 68
Regulatory Developments....................................... 72
Industry Developments ........................................... 73
Competitive Landscape..........................................................75
Competitor Analysis Tables......................................... 75
Table: Key Players – China Telecoms Market........ 75
Table: Selected Operators – Revenue Growth, 2002-2008 ........................................................... 75
Company Monitor....................................................................76
Table: Alcatel-Lucent Revenues By Service Type (EURmn) ........................................................ 76
Table: Alcatel-Lucent Revenues By Region (EURmn)................................................................. 77
Table: Alcatel-Lucent – A Selection Of Major Contracts ............................................................. 80
Selected Profiles – Operators ....................................... 81
China Telecom........................................................ 81
China Mobile (Hong Kong) .................................... 86
China Unicom......................................................... 90
Appendix ............94
Table: Telecommunications Glossary Of Terms..... 94
Country Snapshot: China Demographic Data .............. 95
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030............ 95
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ........... 96
Section 2: Education And Healthcare ..................... 96
Table: Education, 2002-2005.................................. 96
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030........................... 96
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power..... 97
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006............. 97
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)... 97
BMI Methodology ....................................................................98
BMI Forecast Modelling & Sourcing........................... 98
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts.............. 98
Telecommunications Industry Forecasting.............. 98
Key Indicators......................................................... 98
Business Environment Ratings ............................... 98
Sources ................................................................. 100
Business Environment Ratings Methodology ............ 100
Weighting .................................................................. 101
Table: Weighting .................................................. 101
Table: Indicators ................................................... 102