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East and Southern Africa Telecommunications Report Q1 2009
Market |
Telecommunications |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Africa |
Published |
19 February 2009 |
Number of Pages |
78 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
The latest update on the telecommunications markets of East and Southern Africa contains revised mobile market growth forecasts for all eight of the countries surveyed. In each case, we have also extended our forecasts to the end of 2013. Our new forecasts are based on an assessment of Q308 subscriber data published by the region’s telecoms regulators and by its various mobile operators.
In our last update, we noted the arrival of a third mobile operator in Botswana and the launch of services by Orange Kenya, the new name for Kenya’s incumbent operator, in which France Telecom now has a 51% stake. At the end of November 2008, Kenya saw the arrival of fourth GSM network when Econet Wireless Kenya (EWK) launched commercial services, almost five years after it was first granted a licence. Econet reportedly has Essar of India as a major financial backer.
The past few months have also seen the arrival of additional competition in Uganda, which followed the acquisition by France Telecom of a 53% stake in HITS Telecom Uganda. The company subsequently rebranded as Orange Uganda and revealed plans to launch services under the Orange brand in the coming months. The launch of commercial services by Orange Uganda will raise the total number of Ugandan mobile operators to five. Meanwhile, Tanzania already has five mobile operators and a sixth is expected to launch. The high level of competition in these markets is expected to bring about impressive growth over the next five years.
In light of their higher levels of competition, it is perhaps unsurprising that our most notable forecast changes have occurred in relation to Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda; these three countries registered the greatest increase in customers in the first nine months of 2008. In Uganda, where we expect to see the strongest subscriber growth over the next five years, we now predict that mobile penetration will reach 44% at the end of 2009 and almost 93% by the end of 2013. Meanwhile in Kenya and Tanzania, we predict annual average growth rates of around 30% over the next five years. Penetration is predicted to surpass 100% by the end of our newly extended forecast in 2013.
We have once again lowered our estimate for the number of mobile customers in Angola, Mozambique and Sudan at the end of 2008. Angola and Mozambique continue to be mobile market duopolies, and this phenomenon appears to have contributed to their relatively slow customer growth. The slowest growth rates continue to be seen in Botswana and Mauritius, where penetration rates are already relatively high.
In our latest set of business environment rankings for Africa, Tanzania and Botswana have moved to third and fourth place respectively, and are now just behind South Africa and Nigeria. Although Sudan and Uganda join these two countries in the upper section of our table, most of the countries surveyed in our East & Southern Africa telecoms report continue to be located in the lower half of our table.
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