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Indonesia Telecommunications Report Q4 2009
Market |
Telecommunications |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Indonesia |
Published |
27 August 2009 |
Number of Pages |
93 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Indonesia reported a total of 146 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2008, representing growth of 50.4%
This is the first full update since the sections on mobile, fixed-line and broadband were extended. We have also, for the first time, introduced a new forecast table for mobile ARPU rates into the Industry Forecast Section.
The continued dominance of prepaid subscribers, accounting for around 95% of the total has largely been to blame for the falling blended ARPU rates. In addition, the rise in the number of new entrants into the mobile industry has seen overall price plans decline so that this has also negatively impacted ARPUs. At the end of 2008, the average ARPU rate stood at IDR44,160, and down from IDR58,092 in the previous year. The report is forecasting that 2009 will also experience a decline reaching IDR34,354, falling further to IDR22,501 as of 2013.
There is the potential, however, for blended ARPU rates to improve in the longer term. Improvements in the 3G market, in particular, should help to raise spending. At present, 3G accounts for around 5% of the market total, despite its early introduction. While tariffs remain a major barrier to take-up, the lack of appealing mobile content, combined with limited handset models and variety, has similarly contributed to the slow adoption rates.
Following Telkomsel’s announcement that it had 65.3mn mobile subscribers at the end of 2008, we are now able to present a fuller picture of the current mobile competitive landscape. At the end of the year, there were 146.332mn mobile subscribers, representing growth of 50.4%, largely flat from the previous year, which expanded by 49.3%. This revealed itself to be due to operators discounting inactive subscriber figures from their total customer bases, so that the Indonesian market continues to exhibit strong potential for growth. By 2013, it is forecast that the total market will have doubled, with penetration rates at 172.3%.
The culling of inactive customers by operators also meant that Indonesia’s maturity levels dropped, adding to its attractiveness in the latest Business Environment Ratings index. This, together with the rise in independence of regulator score from 50 to 60, due to improvements in competition, led Indonesia to rise up the table to joint 10th place with Pakistan, out of a total of 18, compared to its previous quarterly position of 12th.
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