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Mexico Telecommunications Report Q2 2010
Market |
Telecommunications |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Mexico |
Published |
9 March 2010 |
Number of Pages |
99 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Our Q2 2010 update on Mexico’s telecommunications market contains revised forecasts for the country’s fixed-line, internet and mobile telephony markets. Our forecasts incorporate the latest fixedline, internet and mobile subscriber data published by Mexican regulator Comisión Federal de Telecomunicaciones (Cofetel) as well as by the sector’s leading network operators. At the time of writing, Q309 data had been published by all four of the country’s mobile network operators, the largest of which were Telcel, the Mexican mobile arm of América Móvil, and Telefónica Móviles Mexico (Movistar). Together these two operators accounted for 92% of the country’s mobile subscriber base. The pattern of slowing mobile market growth, witnessed in H109, continued in Q309, when the number of Mexican mobile customers increased by just 1.2%. Throughout 2009, Mexico’s economic recession continued to dampen market growth. The market was also negatively affected by a lack of strong competition.
Despite the introduction of number portability in 2008, market leader Telcel continued to dominate the market at the end of Q309, accounting for over 71% of the mobile user base. The two remaining operators, Iusacell and Nextel, provide only minimal competition to Telcel and Movistar. At the end of September 2009, Mexico had more than 81.35mn mobile users. We estimate that this figure had risen to 82.3mn by the end of the year (equivalent to 76.5% penetration). Our new five-year forecast for the country’s mobile market envisages only slow steady growth and does not anticipate the 100mn subscriber mark being reached until late 2012.
We continue to believe that the arrival of increased mobile market competition would result in much faster rates of customer growth, as well as a new round of investment for the sector. As we have argued before, further competition could come in the form of mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs). In November 2009, it was reported that Mexico’s largest cable TV and triple-play service provider, Megacable, was planning to launch mobile voice services in the first quarter of 2010. For the purpose of launching an MVNO offer, the cable operator is understood to have signed an agreement with one of the existing network operators.
Our latest update on Mexico’s Telecommunications market also includes end-of-year data published by fixed-line incumbent operator Teléfonos de México (Telmex). In Q409, Telmex deducted 1.5mn customers from its fixed-line subscriber base. The move resulted from a decision to not include statistics for customers who were more than two months behind on their bill payments. As a result of Telmex’s deductions, we have significantly lowered Mexico’s fixed-line penetration rate. However, although the fixed-line sector continues to experience a net loss of customers, the latest regulatory data points to strong growth in the level of internet usage. This quarter has seen a number of developments that bode well for the future expansion of internet services in Mexico. These include moves by both Telmex and cable TV operator Cablevisión to boost their broadband access download speeds. They also include the January announcement that the government had begun the bidding process for leasing capacity on the fibre network of state-owned power company Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE).
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