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Nigeria Telecommunications Report Q4 2009
Market |
Telecommunications |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Nigeria |
Published |
28 October 2009 |
Number of Pages |
73 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
The first half of 2009 has seen a remarkable slowdown in the growth of Nigeria’s mobile market
The first half of 2009 has seen a remarkable slowdown in the growth of Nigeria’s mobile market. 2008 was a year of incredible growth for the sector, with over 22.5mn new subscribers added to the market during the course of the year. While it is true that more than 57% of these were added during the second half of the year, that still leaves H109’s net additions of less than 4mn paling in comparison to the same period a year earlier.
It is not time to panic however, or give in to a sea change in the growth rate. Q109 was the worst quarter, and Q209 was dramatically better. The report fully expects Q309 to be better again, and so on. This being said, we have still seen it as necessary to downgrade our expectation for the mobile market at the end of 2009.
One of the reasons for the poor growth performance in the first half of 2009 was Zain, which reported subscriber losses in both quarters. More recently, Zain has been suffering from uncertainty over its future which can have been doing it no favours, but in its Q109 and H109 reports, the Kuwaiti company has blamed its declining subscriber figures on adjustments in the reporting of inactive SIMs. This should mean that the decline is a temporary thing, and the operator should see a return to growth soon. This being said, Q309 will probably be the quarter in which the company is worst hit by the doubts that have been circulating around it, so it may be that its return to growth will not at first be very strong.
Growth in the fixed-wireless segment has continued to be strong and steady, and is also slightly above our expectations, and as such we have raised our forecasts slightly. Things may also be looking up for Nitel, although as ever with the beleaguered former monopoly holder, it is wise not to get too hopeful until there is proof of a recovery of fortune. Nitel has officially been renationalised, but with an agenda to get it ready for sale within two months of the government’s specially appointed committee taking over. In August 2009 it was revealed that there were 13 parties that had been deemed to be qualified after expressing interest in the purchase. These included Etisalat and Spain’s Telefónica, as well as former favourite Globacom. This is a positive development that leads the report to become slightly optimistic that a new investor may yet be found and put in place within a reasonable timescale, leaving the incumbent still worth rescuing. Maybe.
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