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Poland Telecommunications Report Q4 2009
Market |
Telecommunications |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Poland |
Published |
21 October 2009 |
Number of Pages |
98 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Polkomtel had consolidated its position in the mobile market, increasing its share to 33.1% in Q1 2009
The main development in the Polish telecoms market since our last quarterly update has been the commercial launch of the country’s fifth GSM mobile network operator. CenterNet launched services at the end of May, although at the time was offering just one prepaid tariff. The operator said that it launched solely to meet the requirement of its licence, and a full commercial launch would take place later in the year. In June it emerged that CenterNet would launch a mobile service called wRodzinie in partnership with the Lux Veritas Foundation. The Lux Veritas Foundation has a large number of foreign members and BMI believes wRodzinie has a good change of success in Poland’s highly penetrated market. Similar partnerships by CenterNet could see the operator approaching its ambitious targets of 200,000 customers within a year of launching and 2.5mn within five years. Whether there is room for the two other companies that possess GSM licences but are yet to launch remains to be seen.
At the end of Q109 mobile market leader Polkomtel had consolidated its position, increasing its market share to 33.1%. Meanwhile, Orange’s market share dropped to 31.1% on the back of a 501,000 subscriber net loss. This left Orange with just 272,000 more subscribers than third-placed PTC, which had a market share of 30.2% at the end of March 2009. With future growth in the market expected to come from the postpaid segment and declining prepaid subscriber numbers, the market leadership mantle could change hands several times. The key could be which of the big three forms the most fruitful mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) partnerships, in addition to their postpaid and mobile data offerings.
Poland’s fixed-line sector held 10.55mn fixed-line subscribers at the end of 2008 after declining 3.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), a slowdown from the 4.7% decline seen in 2007. The sector’s decline continued to slow through the first half of 2009, falling by less than 1% over the first six months of the year. The improved performance from the country’s fixed-line operators is being driven by their improved tariff offerings and the bundling of fixed-lines with broadband and pay-TV. Nevertheless, fixed-to-mobile substitution is continuing and Telekomunikacja Polska (TPSA) has reported this is being driven by a price war in the prepaid mobile segment.
As well as being the dominant fixed-line provider, TPSA also dominates the broadband sector, holding a 38.9% share of the market at the end of June 2009. Broadband subscriptions grew to 5.830mn by the end of H109, representing broadband penetration of 15.3%. Growth is being driven by fierce competition between TPSA and alternative operators such as UPC Poland and Netia, which have built out their own network infrastructure and have gained access to the incumbent’s network through wholesale line rental and unbundled local loop (ULL) agreements. Access to the incumbent’s network looks set to be made easier in the near future. The regulator, UKE, looks set to abandon its plans to force TPSA into a functional split into independent wholesale and retail units. In return TPSA will instigate a number of alternative procedures that should see competition in the market given a significant boost.
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