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Market |
Telecommunications |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
United Kingdom |
Published |
3 February 2010 |
Number of Pages |
98 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
In our United Kingdom Telecommunications Report for Q110 we have extended our forecasts for the mobile, fixed-line and internet markets through to the end of 2014. Current trends are expected to continue into 2014 with muted expansion in the mobile market, a muted contraction in the fixed-line market and a steady increase in the number of broadband subscribers.
The UK’s mobile market is arguably the most competitive in the region with five major players. Four operators provide 2G and 3G services: Telefonica O2 UK, Vodafone UK, Orange UK and T-Mobile UK. The market is also home to a 3G only operator, Hutchison Whampoa’s 3 UK. The intense competition in the market has put pressure on prices forcing down average revenue per user (ARPU) and squeezing operator margins. The operators had claimed that this was eating into their capital expenditure requirements. Speculation had been rising that there could be some consolidation in the mobile sector and in September 2009, T-Mobile UK’s parent company Deutsche Telekom, and France Télécom, the parent company of Orange UK, announced that they had agreed to merge their UK mobile units. The deal will create a new mobile market leader and pave the way for huge cost savings. The reduction in competition should also relieve pressure on ARPU. However, at the time of writing the deal was still awaiting regulatory approval. The mobile operators are increasingly focusing on attracting higher value customers and boosting mobile broadband and mobile data subscriptions in an effort to bolster ARPU rates. A relaxing of competitive pressures could be beneficial in affording the operators greater capital expenditure funds.
The fixed-line sector remains in a state of steady decline driven by fixed-to-mobile substitution and the growing popularity of VoIP services. That said the UK is just one of three countries in West Europe to have fixed-line penetration above 50%. There are two key factors that have helped the UK’s fixed-line sector stave off a steeper decline. Firstly, the abundance of flat-rate tariffs offering inclusive minutes, which has resulted from the operators looking to compete with mobile tariffs, and intense competition between the fixed-line operators such as incumbent BT and alternative operators Virgin Media and Carphone Warehouse’s TalkTalk. Secondly, in the UK a fixed-line connection is required if a customer wishes to receive an ADSL broadband service; ADSL is the most popular broadband access technology. If ‘naked’ ADSL is permitted then we would expect a sharp drop in the number of fixed-line connections in the UK.
The broadband market is also highly competitive and operators are turning their attention to boosting service quality through the deployment of ADSL2+ and fibre-optic networks. The UK’s broadband download speeds do not compare favourably with some of its regional peers such as France and Germany. However this is beginning to change. Virgin Media’s fibre-optic cable network now covers half of UK households and the operator is seeing its customers rapidly migrate to its faster service offerings. BT is busy deploying its own fibre-optic network and plans to cover 40% of households by 2012.
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