West and Central Africa Telecommunications Report Q1 2009

The latest update on the telecommunications markets of West and Central Africa contains revised mobile market growth forecasts for all seven of the countries surveyed. In each case, we have also extended our forecasts to the end of 2013. Based on an assessment of Q308 subscriber data, we now estimate that the mobile markets of Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Gabon and Mali were larger than previously predicted at the end of 2008. Conversely, we believe that the mobile markets of Cameroon, Mauritania and Senegal were smaller than expected at the end of the year.

Our new five-year mobile telephony forecasts for West and Central Africa envisage the strongest subscriber growth occurring in Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Mali and Senegal. In Cameroon and Mali, penetration rates were still relatively low at the end of 2008, giving these markets considerable room for future growth. The prospect of increased competition in both Cameroon and Mali adds to our expectation of strong future growth trends. Meanwhile, Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana benefit from having highly competitive mobile markets which host three or more network operators. Ghana remains one of the region’s most dynamic markets, with four operators already present in the market, and with another two operators poised to launch commercial services before the end of 2008. Finally, Senegal’s mobile market bucks the regional trend whereby countries with just two operators tend to experience slower growth.

The release of Q308 operational results by South Africa’s MTN, France’s Orange, Kuwait’s Zain, Luxembourg’s Millicom Cellular International and Morocco’s Maroc Telecom, has allowed us to assess the state of the West and Central African telecoms market in the later half of 2008. These operators collectively account for 86% of all mobile subscribers in West and Central Africa. France Telecom also offers fixed line and internet services in Mali, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal (in the latter two countries, the French operator has a controlling stake in the national incumbent).

In addition to a diverse range of subscriber growth trends which are anticipated within the regions’ fixed voice, mobile and internet market segments, the last few months of 2008 saw a number of developments which have major implications for telecoms in the region. In September 2008, it was revealed that Moroccan incumbent, Maroc Telecom, had been shortlisted to buy 51% of Sotelma. Also, in October 2008, UK operator Vodafone announced a number of considerable achievements, just 60 days after its acquisition of a 70% stake in the Ghana Telecom. The achievements included a 6% expansion in Ghana Telecom’s mobile customer base and a substantial increase in cell site deployments.

This report features our updated business environment rankings for the African telecoms market. Our latest set of rankings for Africa sees South Africa and Nigeria respectively retake the first and second positions. Another major development involves Egypt’s fall from third to seventh place in our rankings.

The lower score awarded to Egypt arises mainly as a result of concerns about the country’s economy.