Caribbean Tourism Report Q3 2010

Slow Start To 2010 ; The Caribbean experienced a mixed start to 2010, with sharp differences between countries in terms of tourist arrivals. In general, the picture was positive, with several countries posting increases in tourist arrivals, following a year of overall decline in 2009. St Lucia and the US Virgin Islands registered high levels of arrivals growth in Q110, with arrival numbers growing by 12.5% and 15.0% year-on-year (y-oy) respectively, reminiscent of the regional growth levels experienced prior to the 2008-2009 global economic slowdown. Other countries experienced smaller levels of arrivals growth, with the number of visitors to Aruba and Barbados increasing by 3.1% and 1.7% respectively. Regional bellwether the Dominican Republic, a major tourist destination, experienced growth of 3.9%.

The picture was less positive for Bermuda and Curaçao, which experienced arrivals declines of 17.9% and 13.5% respectively. These countries have only reported figures for January, so full first quarter figures are likely to show a more moderate decline. Continuing the Q110 trend, the region is likely to report further growth for Q2, although arrivals will slow during the June-November hurricane season. With the 2010 hurricane season forecast to be heavier than in 2009, arrivals are likely to slow again before picking up in the pre-Christmas high season.

Focus On Bermuda
Bermuda is one of the most far-flung locations in the Caribbean, located to the north of the Caribbean proper, off the North Carolina coastline. Although Bermuda is actually in the Atlantic rather than the Caribbean Sea, it has a warm, tropical climate all year round and is therefore regarded as part of the Caribbean in terms of tourism. Despite its attractions, Bermuda has suffered heavily in the tourist slowdown of 2008-2009. In 2009, tourist arrivals fell by 6.8% y-o-y, which was about average compared to the rest of the Caribbean. However, performance was poor in early 2010, with a decline of 17.9%. We believe this decline will only be temporary and is perhaps related to the slow pickup in demand from US tourists. However, we expect arrivals to Bermuda to return to growth in 2010’ albeit more subdued. Air Jamaica Sold At Last
In April 2010, Air Jamaica was sold to regional rival Caribbean Airlines after a two-year effort by the Jamaican government to sell off the struggling airline. The carrier, with an estimated US$1bn in debts, was renationalised pending its sale and several efforts to sell it off had fallen through. Under the terms of the agreement, the Jamaican government will hold a 16% stake in Caribbean Airlines, reflecting the US$30mn valuation of Air Jamaica. On May 1 2010, a new company was created, Caribbean Airlines Air Jamaica Transition Limited, to manage the process of transferring Air Jamaica’s routes and assets to Caribbean Airlines. This process is expected to take up to a year, after which all flights will operate under Caribbean Airlines. Of Air Jamaica’s 1,500 workers, 1,000 will be retained on short-term contracts during the transition period. While it is positive that the airline had finally been sold, the number of redundancies and the loss of the national airline brand led to criticism in Kingston. For Caribbean Airlines it is a strategic investment, allowing it to increase its market share in the region and cementing its position as the dominant carrier.