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Croatia Tourism Report Q2 2009
Market |
Travel |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Croatia |
Published |
25 March 2009 |
Number of Pages |
52 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Tourism Overview As we anticipated, the most recent data for the first eleven months of 2008 show a marked weakening in the growth of foreign tourist arrivals, with an increase of just 1% year-on-year (y-o-y) to around 9.3mn.
Domestic tourism was down marginally y-o-y over the same period, while overall tourism (domestic and foreign) increased 1% to nearly 11.1mn tourists. Of the top five source markets, only one country recorded positive growth, with arrivals from Slovenia up 3% compared with the corresponding period in 2007. Cruise ship tourism, on the other hand, performed much more favourably, with foreign vessels realising 820 cruises in Croatia in the eleven-month period, a buoyant increase of over 31% y-o-y.
Passenger numbers on these cruises also increased a considerable 35% y-o-y to close to 940,000 (each passenger stayed on average two days).
Forecast Scenario Confirmed by almost complete annual data, foreign tourist arrival growth in 2008 will fall sharply, with our growth estimate revised down marginally this quarter to under 1% y-o-y, compared with strong 7.5% annual growth in 2007. Futhermore, we expect negative growth in arrivals in 2009 but modest recovery next year. Underlying the forecasts are the deteriorating economic conditions in major source markets – particularly the eurozone. In 2009, we forecast a contraction of 1.6% in the eurozone (including Slovakia). A slow recovery is expected in 2010, however, with real GDP growth of 0.7%. Given that we now expect Croatia to become an EU member around 2012-2013, a relatively strong pick-up in the tourism sector during that period, however, is anticipated.
Hospitality Latest data for the period January to November 2008 record a particularly weak performance in the hospitality sector, compared with recent years. The number of tourist nights totalled 56.7mn (domestic and foreign tourists), up just under 2% y-o-y, with the number of foreign tourist nights increasing by 2.1% y-o-y. Out of the key source markets, only Germany and Slovenia recorded positive (but marginal) growth y-o-y in tourist nights over the eleven-month period, equivalent to 1% and 2% y-o-y respectively.
Adris Group In the first nine months of 2008, total revenues of Adris Group amounted to HRK2.59bn (US$525mn), while operating revenue remained unchanged compared with a year earlier at HRK2.4bn (US$486mn).
Profit before tax amounted to HRK728mn (US$147mn). Tourist business units reported a reasonable 5.4% y-o-y increase in the number of guest nights over the nine-month period. In 2009, the group will make investments of almost HRK500mn, mostly in tourism and, in particular, on a new five-star hotel – the Hotel Istra on the island of Sveti Andrija.
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