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Croatia Tourism Report Q2 2010
Market |
Travel |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Croatia |
Published |
26 January 2010 |
Number of Pages |
57 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
The most recent data for the first 10 months of 2009 show a decline in foreign tourist arrivals of just 1.0% year-on-year (y-o-y), to about 9.2mn. The rate of decline showed broad improvement during the course of the year – boosted in particular by favourable growth in arrivals of 5% y-o-y in August. Domestic tourism fared far worse, however, over the same 10 months, with tourist numbers down by 13% y-o-y. Overall foreign and domestic tourism numbers fell by 3% y-o-y to 10.6mn tourists. Among the top six source markets, four recorded positive growth in arrivals during January-October 2009, while visitors from Slovenia and the Czech Republic declined by 3% and 2% y-o-y respectively. Although arrivals from the top two source markets, Germany and Italy, grew by a modest 2% and 3% y-o-y respectively, there was stronger growth in the number of visitors from Austria (up by 8% y-o-y) and Poland (9% y-o-y). The number of visitors from France and the UK declined relatively sharply.
Hospitality
During the first 10 months of 2009, the number of tourist nights totalled 55.5mn, a slight fall of 1% y-o-y. The number of foreign tourist nights declined marginally to just under 50.1mn (90% of the total), with the average number of nights per tourist at 5.5 nights. The number of domestic tourist nights fell by 10% y-oy to about 5.5mn. Among the key source markets, only Slovenia and the Czech Republic recorded falls yo- y in tourist nights, which were slight.
Industry Forecast Scenario
Regarding foreign visitors, the tourist sector is likely to have performed slightly better in 2009 than we originally anticipated, although we maintain a subdued outlook for the Croatian tourism sector in the short term. Due to better than expected foreign tourism in the summer of 2009, we edged up our forecast for foreign tourist arrivals for the year as a whole and now expect a fall of -2.0% y-o-y. We also revised up our forecast for 2010 to positive growth in arrivals of 1.0% y-o-y, as opposed to slight negative growth in our previous report. Underlying these forecasts is mild economic recovery in major source markets, with the eurozone in particular only tentatively emerging from recession in 2010, but growth is anticipated to pick up to 1.7% in 2011. Interestingly, despite eurozone recession in 2009, the number of foreign arrivals from key markets such as Germany and Italy appears to have held up reasonably well. Additionally, although the seasonal dynamics that framed the Croatian kuna in previous years will remain a dominant feature over the forecast period, we believe that much of the medium-term appreciatory pressure on the kuna has been alleviated. This will help support the competitiveness of the tourism sector for foreign visitors from the eurozone.
Air Passenger Traffic
The downturn in the tourism sector had a sizeable negative impact on international passenger air traffic. Data for the first nine months of 2009 show a substantial fall of 14% y-o-y in international passenger numbers on Croatian carriers. At Zagreb Airport, the main international airport in Croatia and the primary hub for the national flag carrier Croatia Airlines, the most recent data show that total passenger numbers fell by 5.5% y-o-y in the first 11 months of 2009. For 2009 as a whole, Dubrovnik Airport recorded a fall in numbers of nearly 6% y-o-y to 1.12mn passengers.
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