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Indonesia Tourism Report Q1 2009
Market |
Travel |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Indonesia |
Published |
18 March 2009 |
Number of Pages |
46 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
Tourism Arrivals Figures Still Strong Indonesia has maintained the strong start seen to 2008 tourist arrival figures. The number of tourists visiting the archipelago during the first half increased by 11.66% year on year (y-o-y), to 2.9mn. Figures released in December showed that tourist arrivals were up 13% y-o-y over the first 10 months of the year, at 5.09mn. Against this backdrop, we believe that there may now be a slight downside risk to our forecast of 6.35mn tourist arrivals for the year. However, this would still mark a solid year for Indonesian tourism, in the face of many challenges, including the global economic crisis and travel advisories warning against travel to the archipelago. To some extent, Indonesia may benefit from tourists switching holidays away from troubled Thailand, where anti-government protests closed the country’s main international airport during November 2008.
But 2009 will be challenging Despite Indonesia’s resilience in 2008, it is hard to see how the country will escape from the ongoing economic crisis gripping developed world markets. As such, although Indonesia might still fare better than its competitors, due to its image as a ‘low-cost’ travel destination, we still think it prudent to make some downward revisions to our previous forecasts for tourist arrivals in 2009 and beyond. We now believe that a slight fall in tourist arrival numbers is the best-case scenario for 2009, with 2010 proving essentially flat. Beyond this point however, we see scope for a rapid rebound in the industry as demand returns.
New aviation law should boost safety In December 2008, the Indonesian parliament passed a new aviation law which should improve the safety situation for air travellers in the archipelago. As part of the new law, Indonesia is to set up an independent national commission that will carry out investigations into air accidents and report directly to the president.
The EU has welcomed the new law, saying it is a ‘significant development for the improvement of air safety in Indonesia’. However, there is no word yet on whether the EU is reconsidering its current ban on Indonesian aircraft entering European airspace. Although no Indonesian carriers currently fly to the EU, this ban acts as a deterrent to European travellers wanting to travel around the archipelago on domestic flights, as European travel agents are obliged to warn their clients over the risks of travelling by air.
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