Kenya Tourism Report Q1 2009

While being a traditional favourite with visitors, Kenya’s tourism industry took a very large downturn as a result of the violence that marred the elections held at the end of 2007. More than 1,000 people were killed and large numbers displaced. Most governments were quick to issue strongly worded travel advice and tourist numbers fell by 90% in January. According to the Kenyan Bureau of Statistics’ latest economic report, the tourism sector declined 34.7 percent over 2008. The KTB estimates tourist arrivals between January and October of 2008 shrunk 35.2 per cent, from 873,00 to 565,000. The impact on the industry has been substantial, with widespread lay-offs and hotel closures. The government has been marketing heavily to try to repair the damage and bring back the record numbers of 2007. Whether it will succeed is an open question. On the surface, at least, it is optimistic.

Economic Outlook: Kenya in 2009 is set to see real GDP growth of 5.0% as it bounces back from the 3.7% estimated for 2008. Although an improvement on the annus horribilis of 2008, this will hardly be a stellar rate of growth, considering the 7.0% witnessed as recently as 2007. We believe that a combination of subdued demand for exports, high inflation, reduced capital inflows and waning remittances will weigh on economic expansion over the year, and indeed, over the coming years. Our forecasts are for real GDP growth to rise slightly to 5.1% in 2010, before trending down gradually to reach 4.2% by 2013.

Political Developments: In the six months since Kenya's coalition government was formed in April, political progress has surprised on the upside. The new structure – with Mwai Kibaki as president and Raila Odinga as prime minister – has held together despite its inherent weaknesses, and looks relatively secure. There seems to be a broad-based desire to put post-election unrest firmly in the past, and focus on the economy. An overhaul of the beleaguered electoral commission is in the pipeline – a development which would further boost confidence in the polity.