Romania Tourism Report Q2 2009

Tourism Overview With data almost complete for 2008, the growth rate in foreign visitor arrivals continues to show a downward trend. Whereas the rate of growth was some 20% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first nine months of 2008, the rate slowed to 16.6% y-o-y in the first eleven months to over 8.2mn. Almost 95% of visitor arrivals came from European countries, while 62.7% were from the EU member states. Of the latter, Hungary accounted for the largest proportion of arrivals (34.6% of the total), followed by Bulgaria (20%), Germany (9.4%), Italy (7.7%) and Poland (5.2%). During the same period, Romanian departures abroad were up nearly 21% y-o-y to some 12.2mn.

Hospitality In sharp contrast to the previous year, official figures for the period January to November 2008 indicate a poor outturn for the hospitality sector. Data show that tourism nights in all accommodation establishments amounted to 19.7mn (foreign and domestic tourists), up just over 1% compared with the eleven month period a year earlier. Foreign tourists though recorded a 5.9% y-o-y decline in overnight stays to some 3.2mn (16.3% of the total). In conjunction with this fall, foreign visitor arrivals in collective accommodation establishments declined by 5.2% y-o-y to 1.4mn visitors (nearly 21% of total arrivals).

Hotel occupancy rates were 36%, which was 0.8% weaker than in the corresponding period of 2007.

Forecast Scenario Growth in foreign visitor arrivals is expected to remain robust in 2008, at about 15% y-o-y, but the rate of growth will be markedly lower than in the previous year. Following revisions this quarter, however, BMI now expects only limited growth in 2009, although the growth rate is anticipated to pick up in the following year (but the risks are on the downside). This is largely based on downward revisions to real GDP growth in the eurozone – the major source of arrivals in Romania – along with our revised forecast of a deep recession in Hungary in 2009 and only modest recovery beyond 2011.

Bucharest Henri Coanda International Airport Recently released data show passenger traffic at Romania’s largest airport, Bucharest Henri Coanda International Airport (BHCIA), totalled just over 5mn in 2008, representing an increase of about 2% compared with the previous year. This was much lower than the airport had anticipated.

Tarom Latest figures for the first eleven months of 2008 record a continuing slowdown in the growth of passenger numbers (after very strong growth in 2007) for the national flag carrier, Tarom, with a 6.7% yo- y increase to almost 1.7mn. Furthermore, in recent months, the airline has recorded negative growth, with passenger traffic down a sizeable 11% in November compared with the same month in 2007.

Blue Air Romanian low-cost airline Blue Air recorded lower but buoyant growth in passenger numbers in 2008 at about 30% y-o-y to a total of 1.2mn passengers, making Blue Air the leading low-cost airline in the market. The carrier anticipates that it will go through a period of consolidation in 2009, with traffic up about 10% y-o-y.