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Turkey Tourism Report Q1 2009
Market |
Travel |
Report Type |
Market Research |
Country |
Turkey |
Published |
18 March 2009 |
Number of Pages |
46 |
Download |
|
Immediate |
|
Publisher |
Business Monitor International |
After an impressive recovery in foreign visitor arrivals in 2007, with growth of 17.8% year-on-year (y-oy), the most recent data for the first three quarters of 2008 show continuing buoyant growth of 15.5% y-oy to around 21mn visitors. As we expected, however, growth appears to be slowing, with increases in arrivals in Q208 and Q308 amounting to over 18% and 13.5% y-o-y respectively.
Forecast Scenario On the strength of recent data, we have edged up our forecast for foreign tourist arrivals in 2008 but maintain that there will be an overall slowdown in growth, although it will remain relatively strong. In 2009 though, growth in arrivals is expected to fall sharply. The background economic scenario reflects downward revisions to our global forecasts across the board, including Germany, Russia and the UK – major source markets for Turkey. Furthermore, after sharp weakness of the Turkish lira towards the end of 2008, BMI expects appreciation of the currency against the US dollar and the euro in 2009 and 2010.
This is likely to dampen growth in visitor arrivals to Turkey over the next few years.
Hospitality In the hospitality sector, although the performance in the first nine months of 2008 has been solid, a slowdown in the sector is evident. The most recent data for Q308 are favourable but growth rates are lower than in the corresponding period of the previous year (as in Q108 and Q208). The total number of tourist room nights amounted to some 129mn nights in Q308, up just over 8% y-o-y (compared with nearly 11% y-o-y growth in Q307). Over the same period, the number of foreign tourist room nights – which accounted for almost 72% of the total – was up a strong 10.9% y-o-y to about 92.6mn nights (after growth of some 13% y-o-y in Q307).
Turkish Airlines Turkey’s national airline, Turkish Airlines (THY), looks set to achieve a strong performance in 2008. In financial results for the first nine months of the year, the carrier reported a net profit of TRY668mn (US$415mn), up a substantial 244% on the corresponding period of 2007. Revenue in the period was up a buoyant 24% y-o-y to TRY4.4bn (US$2.7bn), with the airline adding new destinations and additional flights. The company stated that fuel costs accounted for 36% of total operating costs during the ninemonth period, compared with 27% in the same period a year earlier. The number of passengers carried by THY in the first ten months of 2008 rose a strong 14.7% y-o-y to 18.9mn. Meanwhile, in October 2008, the airline announced that it intended to embark on an ambitious expansion programme, with plans to buy up to 105 aircraft from Airbus and Boeing over the next few years.
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