The price of this market report covers 4 quarterly reports on this sector. This quarterly report will be downloadable instantly as a PDF document, with the 3 remaining reports delivered at regular intervals throughout the year.

The rate of growth in foreign tourism broadly slowed during the course of 2011, after an impressive start earlier in the year, including growth in visitors of over 21% year-on-year (y-o-y) in January-April (probably boosted by the unrest in regional tourist rival Egypt). The figures for the first 10 months of the year show growth down, although still favourable, to just over 10%, compared with the same period in 2010. Arrivals growth in September was also relatively strong at nearly 13% year-on-year (y-o-y). Of the top six source markets for arrivals to Turkey, four of them recorded solid growth: Germany (up by 10% y-o-y), Russia (12%), the Netherlands (14%) and France (23%). Visitors from Bulgaria were up by a modest 5% y-o-y, while the third most important source market, the UK, recorded a 4% fall in arrivals over the 10-month period.

Hospitality

Following growth in the total number of foreign and domestic tourist room nights of 44% and 8.5% y-o-y in Q111 and Q211 respectively, figures for Q311 show a further slowdown in growth, with room nights up by just under 7% y-o-y. Growth in foreign tourist nights fell to below 7% compared with Q310, while domestic tourism recorded a recovery (after negative growth in Q211), with nights up by nearly 8% y-oy. Foreign tourists accounted for about 72% of all room nights in Q311.

Terrorist Incidents

Towards the end of 2011, violence between the Turkish army and separatist rebels increased. In October, following attacks on military installations in Hakkari province (close to the Iraqi border) that killed at least 26 Turkish soldiers, troops pursued Kurdish rebels into Iraq. The attacks are thought to have inflicted the biggest loss on Turkish forces for nearly two decades. Also in October, a bomb blast in the south-east Bitlis province killed five police officers and three others. At least two people were killed and 10 people were injured by an explosion reportedly caused by a female suicide bomber in Bingol, southeast Turkey, in the same month.

Forecast Scenario

BMIs estimates for foreign visitor arrivals in 2011 remains favourable, with annual growth calculated at just under 10% (adjusted down slightly this quarter). We also maintain that growth in arrivals will slow in 2012 but remain fairly robust. This outlook is largely based on economic conditions in Turkeys major source markets, including the eurozone, Russia and the UK. We have revised down our growth projections for the eurozone: to 1.6% from 1.7% for 2011; to -0.2% from 1.2% in 2012; and to 1.4% from 1.9% in 2013. Growth in Germany – the main market for inbound tourism – is forecast to slow sharply from 3.1% in 2011 to 0.3% in 2012, picking up to 2.1% in 2013. In Russia, we expect solid economic growth of over 3% in 2011 and 2012, edging up to 4.2% in 2013. Growth in the UK is only expected to recover in 2013, after growth of just 1.1% in 2011 and 2012. The sharp depreciation in the Turkish lira against the euro and the US dollar in 2011 improved the competitiveness of the tourism sector. At the time of writing, the lira has come off its all-time low near TRY2.6000/EUR and we believe movement towards TRY2.4000/EUR and below could see the lira rally against the euro.

Istanbul Atatürk Airport

Data for January-July 2011 show international passenger traffic at the countrys main airport, Istanbul Atatürk Airport, was up strongly, by nearly 16% y-o-y, to over 13mn passengers.

Turkish Airlines

Traffic figures for Turkish Airlines (THY) for January-November 2011 show a relatively strong increase in total passenger numbers of 11.7% y-o-y to about 30mn customers. The number of international business class passengers was up markedly, by over 28% y-o-y. In October, the airline announced the following new routes for winter 2011: Ankara-Kocaeli, Trabzon-Kocaeli, Istanbul-Misrata, Istanbul- London Gatwick, Istanbul-Novosibirsk and Istanbul-Mogadishu. In November, THY said it will start an Istanbul-Bilbao-La Coruna-Bilbao-Istanbul route. In 2012, the following routes will begin: Istanbul- Abuja-Kano-Istanbul and Istanbul-Novosibirsk-Ulan Bator-Novosibirsk-Istanbul.