Vietnam Tourism Report Q3 2009

Vietnam Airlines is pressing ahead with an ambitious fleet expansion plan despite only 0.6% growth in tourist arrivals in 2008. Arrivals Slump In 2009 Figures released by the Vietnam National Administration of Tourism (VNAT) in May indicate that the tourist industry is continuing to suffer in 2009. In the first four months of the year arrivals fell by 17.8% y-o-y, to 1.29 million. This was particularly disappointing, since Vietnam traditionally receives a boost to tourist arrivals around the spring and Easter holidays, which fell in April this year.

This sustained decline in tourist arrivals follows minimal growth of only 0.6% y-o-y in 2008, demonstrating that Vietnam is suffering heavily from the global slowdown in the tourist industries. Those traditional source markets currently experiencing particularly harsh economic conditions showed the greatest contraction in arrivals, such as nearby Japan, China and South Korea. Vietnam will continue to experience slow visitor arrivals in 2009, although we expect these to pick up towards the end of the year, as the global economy begins to recover. Moreover, Vietnam may benefit slightly from the ongoing unrest in nearby Thailand, which may encourage visitors to visit Vietnam instead.

Industry Launches Promotion Campaign In an effort to bolster the flagging tourist industry, hotels and tour operators have combined to launch a promotional campaign. Named ‘Impressive Vietnam’, this runs from January-September 2009, and is aiming at attracting tourists to return, particularly via package holidays. The government has provided an incentive to sign up to such offers, by temporarily waiving visa requirements for tourists participating in any of the tours on offer. Vietnam Airlines is also offering a 10% discount on international and domestic flights. In addition, all the participating hotels and operators have made price reductions. By May, 118 hotels and 85 travel operators had joined the campaign. So far this campaign appears to have had more effect on domestic tourism, with domestic travel rising by 30% y-o-y in Q109.

Despite the dismal outlook for the tourist industry in 2009, state-owned carrier Vietnam Airlines is pressing ahead with an ambitious fleet expansion plan. From its current fleet of 58 (including Airbus 320s, Airbus A321s and Boeing 777s), the airline plans to expand to 107 by 2015 and 110 by 2020. By 2015, all the fleet is planned to consist of new generation aircraft. In May its first new ATR-72-500s will begin to arrive, replacing its ATR-72-200s. In addition, the government has approved the airline’s purchase of 10 new A321, and it considering expanding its order. Replacement of its A330s and Boeing 777s is scheduled to begin in 2013. The airline is seeking to position itself strongly for the expected recovery in the tourism industry in 2010, with its new fleet allowing it to expand rapidly once demand picks up again.