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Industry Sector |
Industrial |
Published |
12 January 2012 |
Author |
Mike King |
Type of News |
General |
The debt deleveraging economies are forecast to see relatively mixed quarter results during 2012 and 2013 with alternate quarters reporting up to 2% growth with others suggesting a slowdown. The debt deleveraging economies are forecasted to bounce either side of zero growth in 2012. The debt clearing process will take years and not months and the situation is unlikely to improve until a slice of this debt is cleared and overall burden on the economy reduced.
In the United States, it is forecast that muted growth towards continued contraction is going to be reported in the financial, housing and construction industries. However, the fortunes of the information technology, energy, healthcare, industrial and some retail market sectors are expected to fare better and expand over the same period.
China is forecast to continue asserting themselves on the global stage with a significant level of ammunition to manage the country's expected economic growth whilst also managing a soft landing for the real estate market. Slower growth is forecast for China in 2012. Leadership and political changes in the United States, China and Europe are expected to create new opportunities for managing the debt levels and economies whilst at the same time increasing risk. The developed economies are attempting to address the debt bubbles whilst at the same time attempting to ensure interest rates are kept to a minimum. The levels of debt reported in the developed economies means that any slight increase in interest rates would have dire implications for their economy and recovery plans.
During 2012, it is anticipated that the financial markets will remain volatile and hypersensitive to both government policy and the unwinding of both private and public debt. Chinese equities alongside developing market equities are expected to rally in 2012. High-grade to mid-grade corporate bonds are also expected to represent one of the only low-risk investments likely to see positive return over the year. Calamos offers a wide range of global investment solutions and their new report on the global economy seeks to forecast the next two years.
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