Global SMS Infrastructure Market to Reach Saturation by 2016

The global revenue for SMS platforms was approximately $xxx.x million in 2010. This largely represents the annual investments for capacity upgrades as well as revenue generated from maintenance services. We continue to believe that the inclusion of other viable opportunities (such as service creation platforms and middleware layers) could significantly increase the market opportunities during the forecast period and has the potential to offset any decrease in revenue from the core platform components.

Moreover, it should be remembered that with regard to network planning, operators are expanding their capacity with a long-term perspective of handling messaging traffic for longer periods (instead of opting for piecemeal capacity enhancements). This could also introduce 'spikes' in network investments, as some messaging vendors might achieve more profits in certain years, than others. In other words, it could result in inconsistent revenue increases or decreases during the forecast period.

Adoption and usage of SMS continues to increase. The service experience compared to next generation networks is not expected to be significantly different; neither will the emergence of alternate communication mechanisms such as email or instant messaging have a noticeable cannibalization effect on SMS. However, any data service has a natural 'upper-limit' in terms of service penetration and traffic. SMS is likely to reach this limit in the next five to seven years worldwide. Single-digit growth - measured in terms of yearly messaging volumes - is expected in a majority of mobile communication markets worldwide.

While there is a clear slowdown in the growth of legacy mobile messaging services such as SMS and MMS in several regions of the world (such as North America and Europe), high growth rates still exist in other regions such as Asia Pacific. Overall, it is unreasonable to expect a ‘hockey stick' growth in legacy mobile messaging in most of the regions of the world, which means that investments in messaging infrastructure licensing for core messaging platforms is slowing. At the same time, however, maintenance revenue and revenue from premium messaging services is helping sustain the market momentum and is providing a steady stream of revenue to the mobile messaging vendors.

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