Bulgaria Freight Transport Report 2008 (Business Monitor International)

Market: Logistics

Published Date: 15/03/2008

Market Research Report Title: Bulgaria Freight Transport Report 2008

Table of Contents: View Table of Contents

Report Type: Market Report

Country: Bulgaria

Number of Pages: 50

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Summary: Bulgaria was due to take loans and provide guarantees for EUR815mn (US$1.02bn) in 2007, its first year of EU membership, for infrastructure projects financed by the bloc, the government said. Five of the eight projects were part of a EUR7.6bn (US$10bn) investment plan aimed at fixing Bulgaria′s dilapidated roads, railways, sewage and waste disposal sites and other infrastructure until 2015. One of the biggest items is a road upgrade for which Bulgaria will receive EUR380mn. Other deals include repairs to roads and sewage systems in small towns across the country. In fact, taking into account the gradual improvement of the highway system, in BMI’s newly-released Bulgaria Freight Transport 2008 report, we conclude that freight carried by road will grow by an annual average of 76.7% in the 2008-2012 period.

A number of factors underpin this projection. We believe that tonne/kms will now start to increase, driven by improvements in both GDP and trade volumes, as the rate of decline of average length of haul slows significantly or stops. Bulgaria’s EU accession on January 1 2007 is clearly supportive, helping link the country closer to continental road networks. Public-private partnership (PPP) models will help unlock additional investment funds for motorway construction. Work has begun on a second US$318mn bridge over the Danube River, linking the country’s port of Vidin with Romania′s Calafat by mid-2010. And the outlook for Bulgarian economic growth is encouraging, with GDP set to expand by an annual average of 5.3% over the next five years.

Looking across all freight transport modes, we now project airfreight to grow at the strongest pace (7.8% per annum), followed by inland waterways freight traffic (7.7% pa), oil and gas pipelines (6.8%), road haulage (6.7%), maritime freight (6.1%) and rail (5.9%). Taken together all freight, measured in million tonne-km (mntkm) will grow by an annual average of 6.2% per annum during 2008-2012, ahead of GDP.

The total value of transport and communications GDP will rise to US$7.19bn in nominal terms by 2012, representing 14.4% of Bulgaria’s GDP. The transport and communications sector employed 198,400 people, or 7.4% of the labour force, in 2006. Against the backdrop of a falling population, we see that figure reducing holding roughly steady to 2012.

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