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Hong Kong Power Report 2008 (Business Monitor International) Market: Energy and Utilities Published Date: 22/08/2008 Market Research Report Title: Hong Kong Power Report 2008 Table of Contents: View Table of Contents Report Type: Market Report Country: Hong Kong Number of Pages: 61 
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Summary: The new Hong Kong Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.48% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2012, with a continuing requirement to import electricity from the Chinese mainland. BMI’s Asia Pacific power generation estimate for 2007 is 6,865 terawatt hours (twh), representing an increase of 9.6% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,370twh by 2012, representing a rise of 36.5%.
Asia Pacific thermal power generation in 2007 is estimated by BMI at 5,431twh, accounting for 79.1% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2012 is 7,104twh, implying 46.6% growth that reduces the market share of thermal generation to 75.8% – thanks partly to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Hong Kong’s thermal generation in 2007 is estimated at 38.9twh, or 0.72% of the regional total. By 2012, the country is expected to account for 0.63% of thermal generation.
For Hong Kong, oil is the dominant fuel, accounting for an estimated 63.7% of 2007 PED, followed by coal at 26.3%, and gas at 10.1%. Indirectly, HK is a significant nuclear energy consumer, in that imported electricity is generated by nuclear sites on the Chinese mainland. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 4,830mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2012, representing 37.3% growth over the period. Hong Kong’s 2007 market share of 0.82% is set to rise to 0.83% by 2012.
Hong Kong is ranked equal eighth with Thailand in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment rating, thanks to its modest market size and average growth prospects. Certain country risk factors offset some of the industry weakness, but the country seems destined to vie with Thailand and South Korea near the foot of the table for the foreseeable future.
BMI is forecasting Hong Kong real GDP growth averaging 5.73% per annum between 2007 and 2012, with the 2008 forecast at 5.60%. Population is expected to expand from 7.0mn to 7.2mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita both forecast to increase significantly. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 47.9twh in 2007 to 54.8twh by the end of the forecast period, requiring electricity imports rising from 9.0twh in 2007 to at least 10.0twh in 2012, assuming 2.5% annual growth in generating capacity. Mainland China will be the provider of imported power, largely from nuclear facilities.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in HK electricity generation of 41.4%, which is towards the lower end of the range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 18.8% in the 2013-2018 period, up from 15.0% in 2007-12. PED growth is set to fall from 30.7% in 2007-12 to 12.0%, representing 52.3% for the entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 41.4% between 2007 and 2018. More detail of the long-term BMI power forecasts can be found in the appendix of this report.
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