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Poland Tourism Report 2008 (Business Monitor International) Market: Travel Published Date: 29/05/2008 Market Research Report Title: Poland Tourism Report 2008 Table of Contents: View Table of Contents Report Type: Market Report Country: Poland Number of Pages: 31 
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Summary: Forecast Scenario – 2007 And 2008 Remain Sluggish According to data from the Polish Institute of Tourism, there were 65.1mn visitor arrivals in 2006, of which 15.7mn were tourist arrivals. In 2007, performance has been pretty weak. In the first three quarters of 2007, there were 11.6mn tourist arrivals, unchanged from the same period in 2006. With that in mind, it is likely that the full year figure for tourist arrivals in 2007 will remain at around 15.7mn. For 2008, we are therefore again quite cautious. Whilst the low base of the 2007 performance should mean that there is at least a small rise in tourist arrivals during 2008, upside will remain capped by the stronger appeal of other European countries, a continued strengthening of the zloty and slowing consumer demand in the main source market (Germany). We therefore predict a rise of 2.75% y-o-y, to 16.1mn. Modest Negative Influence Of Zloty And German Consumer Demand The medium-term outlook for Germany is for a moderate slowdown over the coming years. In 2008, in unadjusted terms, a 2.0% real GDP growth figure looks realistic. This compares to 2.8% real GDP growth in 2006 and a predicted 2.7% in 2007. By 2011, real GDP growth is likely to be around 1.5%. Meanwhile, currency market developments are also likely to exert a modestly negative influence on tourist arrivals in Poland over the next year or so. The zloty has been strong during 2007, with BMI predicting a year-end exchange rate against the euro of PLN3.63/EUR. This is an appreciation of 5% over the course of the year. Adding to the expense of visiting Poland, we anticipate further appreciation, and forecast that the zloty is likely to reach PLN3.57/EUR by the end of 2008, taking total appreciation over two years to 7%. These factors are likely to exert a modest drag over the next year or so. 2012 European Football Championships Supports Long-Term Growth However, the longer-term picture has at least been boosted by the news in April 2007 that Poland will joint-host the 2012 European football championships, alongside Ukraine. The Poland-Ukraine bid beat off competition from two other bidders; Italy (the favourite) and a joint bid from Croatia and Hungary. The tournament involves 16 teams, and will therefore see visitors from 14 European countries, with crowds for each match likely to range between 30,000 and 80,000 (and over 30 matches in prospect). It is the first time that Poland will host a major football tournament. Germany′s hosting of the World Cup provided a moderate boost to the German economy in 2006. Much of the positive boost will come in the shape of an upgrade of accommodation and infrastructure links prior to the tournament. However, while clearly a boost to Poland′s tourism sector, the effect on visitor arrivals should be kept in perspective. For example, when Greece hosted the Olympic Games in 2004, it experienced a decline in tourist arrivals that year (largely due to the euro′s strengthening that year, which persuaded many potential visitors to take a holiday in Turkey instead). As such, we predict that tourist arrivals in Poland will rise by 6% in 2012, to 18.7mn. In 2009, 2010 and 2011, we predict annual growth in tourist arrivals of 3%. Outbound Tourism Surges In contrast to the recent fortunes of inbound tourism, outbound tourism performed well in 2006. There were 7.3mn trips abroad by Polish tourists in 2006, a rise of 18%. This was due to improved consumer demand, which had previously spent years in the doldrums. The strengthening zloty also helps (and should continue to help). Going forward, we expect that there will be a continued strong rise in outbound tourism over the coming years, so that annual visits abroad will be running at 10.6mn by 2012. Airlines – LOT Sees Profit Surge Based on the results for the first three quarters of 2007, LOT Polish Airlines reported a profit rise of 66% to PLN143mn Flight numbers are up 7% due to flights to new destinations, and passenger numbers have increased some 16%. LOT.s development programme has seen a 50% increase in its share in the low fare airline market. In October 2007 the Management Board of LOT presented guidelines for the company.s new strategy for the years 2008-2012. The company plans to unify its fleet, leave two brands at LOT Group, develop its eastern flight destinations (Russia, Ukraine) and increase its e-sales to at least 40% in 2012. The Managing Board plans also to launch the company on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in 2008, and to exceed a net profit level of PLN 200mn in 2012. Hotels – Orbis To Expand In the Orbis SA 2006 annual report it stated that by 2010 it plans to have 83 hotels and a total of 13,600 beds, helping to strengthen its leading position in the Polish hotel industry. The chain continues to invest in refurbishing its hotels, which has led to an improvement in operating results. Orbis SA profit for 2006 was PLN88.9mn, down 6.6% on 2005. Although occupancy is a relatively low 52.5%, the chain continues to invest in increasing capacity in anticipation of rising guest numbers. The Polish Institute of tourism in their report .2007 Hotel market. states that Poland has just 44 hotel beds per 10,000 residents, while Austria boasts 695, Greece has 615 and Spain, 364. This is the lowest figure across all 27 countries in the EU. Although the overall number of hotel beds is on the rise, it pales in comparison to Italy which has two million hotel beds. The report predicts rapid investment growth in Poland.s fledgling hotel sector, with forecasts calling for outlays to total EUR1.3bn by 2012 when Poland is set to co-host the European football championships with Ukraine. This could translate into 32,000 new beds across the country.
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