Cuba remains a market to watch owing to the possible changes that a renewed relationship with the US could bring. With considerable potential and low penetration rates it is a market that would benefit from competition and closer links to other countries. Already mobile growth looks set to take off after restrictions were lifted on mobile ownership and the number of net additions each quarter continues to increase, indicating a voracious appetite for mobile services in the market. Further growth can be expected across the market. Even with upgrades to our forecasts the Cuban market has the ability to grow even faster but it is believed that affordability remains a key issue for many Cubans, holding the market back.

The Caribbean’s only other monopoly market, Bahamas, looks set to finally see privatisation take place by the end of 2009 if government plans are to go ahead. Earlier failed attempts to sell 51% of the Bahamas Telecommunications Company (BTC) may have put off some potential investors and the already high penetration rate will make the market a challenge for any new entrants but the relatively wealthy population makes this an attractive prospect. Competition for the mobile market is not set to enter until two years after privatisation takes place and the prospects for growth for any new entrant are low but it is still believed there are opportunities to grow and the market will welcome new competitors.

The report has revised the forecasts for Trinidad and Tobago considerably following the release of 2008 subscriber numbers putting the penetration rate at 138%. This is the highest in the region and it is expected further growth to be minimal with a decline beginning in 2012. While there have been cases of mobile markets continuing to grow, way past 138%, bmobile is already losing subscribers and the report does not believe that the market can sustain much more growth.

With such a range of markets in the Caribbean it is hard to draw any generalisations but the overall trends for the region see decline for the majority of fixed-line markets owing to the already high penetration rates for mobile services. The mobile market is often the most competitive market and this has driven fast growth in the past. Future increases will come from offering advanced services such as mobile broadband, maintaining interest in mobile services.

The strongest growth patterns will be seen in broadband services with expectations of strong growth to be seen across the region. Haiti and Cuba will continue to report the lowest levels of broadband subscriptions as pricing and availability remain key issues.