The Czech drug market should grow at a reasonable rate over BMI’s forecast period, with drug expenditure reaching a value of US$3.78bn by 2012. Although growth should slow in the short-term, it should pick up towards the end of the forecast period, driven by a strong underlying economic performance and growing out-of-pocket spending. Fiscal austerities, although lauded by the OECD, should have a deflationary impact on the Czech drug sector with many drug makers looking to expand abroad in order to secure revenues. In terms of company activity, the biggest news in Q308 has been the takeover bid for generic drug maker Zentiva by the country’s richest businessman, Petr Kellner. Zentiva is currently mulling over the bid, which valued the company at CZK950 (US$58.2) per share.

Meanwhile, Zentiva has made the news in a different way recently after it announced that it was to develop a generic form of Pfizer’s erectile dysfunction (ED) drug Viagra (sildenafil) to be sold in its existing markets when the patent expires in 2011. Meanwhile, the country’s health reforms, which finally came into being in January 2008, are continuing to cause controversy. Most political parties, including the CDDS, the Communists (KSCM) and the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) have reservations about the scheme. These parties vary in their stance on whether health fees should be completely abolished or not; however, a common theme is that groups such as the very young, elderly and socially disadvantaged should be exempt from paying.

A poll carried out by local newspaper Lidove Noviny in March 2008 supported this view, with three quarters of Czechs wanting certain social groups to be exempt from payments. The Czech Republic remains in second place in the CEE regional Business Environment Ranking. The United States Trade Representative (USTR) is concerned about the country’s intellectual property accords, however BMI believes that a restructuring of the State Institute for Drug Control (SUKL) will have benefits for the drug market in general.