In this latest update on Hong Kong’s telecommunications market, BMI has revised and extended its forecasts for the development of fixed-line, internet and mobile telephony services. Our new forecasts reflect data published by OFTA, the country’s telecoms regulator, which depict the size of the sector at the end of August 2008. In addition to revising our estimate for the size of Hong Kong’s various telecoms market segments at the end of 2008, our new forecasts have, in most cases, been adjusted and, in all cases, extended to the end of 2013.

According to OFTA, Hong Kong had 11.231mn mobile subscribers at the end of August 2008; this reflects an increase of 13% in the 12 months since the end of August 2007. BMI estimates that the mobile subscriber base expanded by over 10% in 2008, to reach 11.67mn at the end of the year. Although the proportion of 3G customers was equivalent to less than 28% of Hong Kong’s mobile subscriber base at the end of 2008, it should be remembered that our figure for the total number of mobile subscribers includes a certain number of inactive users. If inactive users were discounted, this would make the actual 3G penetration somewhat higher. The recent expansion of the 3G market has been boosted by the introduction of Apple’s iPhone 3G handset by Hutchison.

In November 2008, Hong Kong saw the arrival of a fifth mobile operator, following the launch of code division multiple access (CDMA) 2000-based mobile services by PCCW-HKT. Initial service coverage will extend to parts of the Kowloon peninsula and the northern part of Hong Kong Island. Service coverage will later be extended to cover the airport, Mass Transit Railway stations, road tunnels and border control points.

Meanwhile, we estimate that, by the end of 2008, the number of broadband subscribers in Hong Kong had risen to almost 2.1mn, which is equivalent to nearly 30%. In October 2008, OFTA, Hong Kong’s telecoms regulator launched an auction of radio spectrum in the 2.3GHz and 2.5GHz-2.6GHz bands for the provision of broadband wireless access (BWA) services. A total of 195MHz of spectrum (90MHz in the 2.3GHz band and 105MHz in the 2.5GHz-2.6GHz bands) will be auctioned in January 2009.

Other notable developments within the past few months include the November 2008 news that PCCW Group chairman, Richard Li, along with PCCW’s other main shareholder, China Netcom, had reached an agreement to buy out other shareholders for up to US$2.5bn, and to move the company into full private ownership. The news comes after PCCW abandoned an attempted sale of its core assets in October 2008, causing its stock to fall to its lowest level since 1999 and its shares to be suspended from trading.