By the beginning of 2010, the situation for India's farmers was looking a little less dire. Above average rains in the final quarter of 2009 replenished reservoirs left depleted by the poor monsoon. From the beginning of October to mid-December 2009 India received 9% more rain than the long-term average for the period. By mid-December, water levels in the country's 81 major reservoirs had climbed just above the long-term average for the month. This is a large improvement from the end of August when the levels stood at 73% of the long-term average.

The improvement in water supplies has led us to increase our forecasts for India's major grain crops, wheat and rice. We now expect wheat production to have another bumper year in 2009/10 coming in at a forecast 81.00mn tonnes. Rice production is still expected to be well down from last year, but we have raised up our forecast from 82.66mn tonnes to 84.84mn tonnes. This will still represent a 14.4% fall fromthe previous year's output of 99.15mn tonnes.

The fall in Indian rice production is having a large impact on the world rice trade. With only a very small proportion of the world's rice crop traded internationally, the potential that India will become a netimporter of the grain has contributed to a rapid rise in the world rice price. Expected high-demand from the typhoon-lashed Philippines has also fed the rise in price. The fall in grain production has also contributed to a surge in food prices at home through the final months of 2009. By mid-December, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry's index of food prices was up by almost 20% year-on-year. The government is hoping to calm the price rises by releasing grain from its stockpiles onto the market. Despite this, we expect food price inflation to be a tricky problem for the government in 2010. Any doubts about the 2010/11 crop later in the year would be sure to send prices soaring again with the government likely going into the next harvest year with depleted grain stocks.Supplying the domestic market with sugar is causing more headaches for the government. 2009/10 will see the second consecutive year of drastically reduced output as cane production has been hurt by the poor monsoon. The government has responded to the problem by allowing duty free imports of both raw and refined sugar. This, however, has caused further tension between cane growers and millers. In November these boiled over with an attack on a train carrying imported raw sugar to mills in Uttar Pradesh, India's main sugar producing state. This prompted the state government to ban imports of raw sugar into the state. While this has, as hoped, allowed cane growers to secure a higher price for their crop, it has also left many of the state's mills operating well below capacity and caused falls in the share price of major millers. We expect India to be a major importer of sugar in 2009/10. The high cane prices should see domestic production bounce back next year, weather permitting.