India’s Infrastructure Output Index, a measure of output growth from six industries related to infrastructure production, has shown resilience thus far in 2009 and according to the latest available data from June 2009, production increased by 6.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), the strongest month yet. Our forecasts are more bullish this quarter for 2009. Three factors influence the upward revision:

The latest infrastructure data
The re-election of the United Progressive Alliance party, which assures a level of policy continuity in infrastructure investment policy
The 2009/2010 budget announcements

In the Q409 India Infrastructure Report, we forecast that India’s construction sector will grow, in real terms, at a rate of 2.6% y-o-y in 2009. This still remains a historically low figure for India, but growth is forecast to resume strongly in 2010, when we forecast real growth of 9.4%.

Infrastructure was the focal point of the new budget. A combination of higher government funding and public private partnerships (PPPs) will drive new investments in infrastructure projects. The main goal behind the provisions for infrastructure is increasing liquidity in the market, which in turn will sustain mega-projects in power, gas, highways and railways. For the transport sector, funding earmarked for the national highways development program increased by 23% compared with the previous budget, while funding for railways increased by close to 45%. In the power sector, allocations for the power development program increased by 160%. Finally, the project to create a national system of natural gas pipeline corridors will see a blueprint developed within the new fiscal year. Even though infrastructure got the lion’s share of attention in the budget, Reuters reports that domestic infrastructure players sought more clarity over the allocation of earmarked funds.

India ranks 10th out of the 14 countries rated in our Project Finance Ratings for the Asia Pacific region.

The country’s particularly low score in contract enforceability and market orientation drags its total project finance score down. In addition, finds itself in fifth place this quarter owing to South Korea’s fall from the top of the table; India’s score remains the same this quarter. The country's weak points lie in the limited expertise of the domestic sector which, with the possible exception of companies such as Gammon, GMR Infrastructure and Larsen & Tourbo, cannot meet the demands of the mega-projects the government is seeking to implement in the transport and energy sectors.