Indonesia’s security forces scored a major victory in September by killing fugitive Islamist militant Noordin Mohammad Top in a shoot-out in Central Java. The authorities stated that DNA tests had confirmed Top’s identity. The tests were necessary because following a similar shoot-out in August, a man initially thought to be Top turned out not to be.

Top was one of South East Asia’s most wanted men due to his role in masterminding terror attacks in Indonesia, including Bali and Jakarta, over the past decade. Although born in Malaysia, he was most active in Indonesia under the regional militant group Jemaah Islamiah (JI), but later broke with JI to set up his own group. His elusiveness had been a thorn in the side of the Indonesian security forces, whose effectiveness was questioned after bomb attacks against major hotels in Jakarta in July. As such, Top’s death should reduce the immediate security risk ahead of US President Barack Obama’s planned visit in November.

Nevertheless, Top’s death does not mean that Indonesia can lower its guard. Local police are said to be concerned about knee-jerk retaliation by Top’s associates and it is quite likely that Top’s knowledge and experience of planning terror attacks have been passed on to his followers, who are still at large.

More broadly, there are several structural reasons for Indonesia’s continuing vulnerability to terror attacks. First, there is the country’s sheer geographical size, with thousands of remote and sparsely populated islands where terrorists can train. Second, despite modest economic growth in recent years, tens of millions of people remain in deep poverty and are unemployed or underemployed, meaning that there is a sizeable pool of potential recruits for militant groups.

Third, terror groups have shown great determination to target Westerners in Indonesia. Fourth, despite the decline in support for hard-line Islamic parties in recent years, there have been signs of increasing intolerance, mainly in socio-cultural matters (e.g. the adoption of shari’a law in some localities). These factors mean that the security forces will need to remain vigilant going forward.