Jordan continues to perform a regional diplomatic, defence, and security balancing act. Under King Abdullah the country remains an important US ally in the Middle East, quietly lobbying the George Bush administration to coax the main regional players towards an Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement, which still remains a distant prospect. Alignment with Washington carries both benefits (not least over half a billion dollars in annual economic and military assistance) but also costs. Supporting the US military intervention in neighbouring Iraq has been at times a diplomatically lonely affair as the prospects of stabilising the murderous conflict there looked remote. It has also exposed Jordan to attack from al Qaeda and other Islamist extremists, most notably in the Amman hotel bombings of November 2005, which left a toll of scores of Jordanian dead and injured. In domestic politics the government also faces dilemmas.

Minded in principle to move towards a more open political system, the King and his officials now fear that relaxation will benefit the opposition Islamic Action Front (IAF), the political wing of the Muslim Brotherhood. As in Egypt, the government cannot quite make its mind up if the Brotherhood is a legitimate political movement or the thin edge of a wedge that leads to fundamentalism and sectarian violence.

The need to crack down on the kingdom’s Islamists reflects the wider turmoil across the region. It was only a matter of time before the pro-US Amman fell victim to the Islamic militancy that is rife in its neighbourhood. Now King Abdullah must face the Islamist challenge head on without causing further disaffection amongst the population. This may not be so easy.

Increased US military aid has supplemented Jordan’s traditionally low military expenditure. Such aid has accelerated Amman’s modernisation programme through the provision of advanced military exports to Jordan and foreign investment in its defence industry. Jordan’s indigenous defence industry provides the country’s armed forces with many of its defence requirements, and represents a respectable upgrade capability that is attracting attention across the region, and increasingly into the global arena. Production aside, Jordan is a recipient of an extensive range of advanced Western military hardware.

In such a volatile region, King Abdullah is well advised to hold his current course. He must maintain good relations with the West and keep a lid on the country’s Islamists without losing the support of the Jordanian people. Whilst in favour with the West, Jordan is likely to continue to develop its military relationship with the US. US military aid has accelerated extensive modernisation programmes, especially for the Jordanian Air Force, which would otherwise be hampered by the need to maintain low operational costs. If all continues as planned, and Jordan welcomes international investment in its defence industry, the kingdom could be set to become a significant player in the region.