BMI calculates that pharmaceutical sales in Portugal reached EUR3.61bn (US$5.31bn) in 2008. We calculate that the sales of prescription and over-the-counter (OTC) medicines will reach a value of EUR0.302bn by 2013, equating to a constant annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.79% in local currency terms. We note that as a result of the weakening euro, drug market expenditure in US dollar terms will experience a decline 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012, before reaching a value of US$5.11bn by 2013, equating to a CAGR of -0.77%.

In BMI’s Q409 Business Environment Ratings table for Western Europe, Portugal scores 59.7, down from its Q309 score of 62.6. In regional terms, Portugal is rated 8th of the 9 countries in the Western Europe matrix, above Italy and below Belgium. In global terms, Portugal is positioned in 15th place (down one place compared to the previous quarter), above the Czech Republic and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and below Belgium and the Netherlands, out of the 71 markets surveyed by BMI. The government plays a significant role in the healthcare. Public sector expenditure accounted for 70.5% of spending in 2008. However, an increase in the uptake of private insurance will result in this number falling to 69% over the next five years.

In July 2009, new data showed that approximately a third of the population (3mn out of 10.7mn) are turning to the private sector for treatment, a figure that has tripled over the past 30 years. The private healthcare sector in Portugal is worth approximately US$994mn- US$1.14bn annually and in 2008, the Mello Group’s private healthcare scheme earned revenues of US$397mn, Banco Esperito Santo’s private healthcare plan earned revenues of US$119mn and stateowned Caixa Geral de Depositos’ healthcare scheme earned US$89mn. In August 2009, Portugal’s National Health Plan said that the consumption of sedatives and antidepressants in Portugal is on the rise.

Consumption of anxiolytics, soporifics, sedatives and antidepressants increased by 32% between 2002 and 2008. In Portugal in 2002, 115.6 doses of sedatives and antidepressants were consumed per 1,000 inhabitants per day, and by 2008 this figure had increased to 152.1 doses per 1,000 inhabitants per day. Portugal is therefore way above the European average for consumption of this type of medicine, which stands at 41.3 doses per 1,000 people per day. The National Health Plan aims to reduce the consumption of sedative and antidepressant medicines to 92.5 doses per 1,000 inhabitants per day by 2010. In September 2009, Hovione announced its plans to move to large-scale manufacture of its TwinCaps inhaler, following its use in Phase III trials of Daiichi Sankyo/Biota’s long-acting neuraminidase inhibitor, laninamivir (CS-8958). Daiichi Sankyo and Biota have a worldwide licence to use TwinCaps for the treatment and prevention of influenza infections and it is available for licensing in other indications, according to Hovione.