In this report, it is forecasted that Qatar will account for 1.97% of Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional power generation by 2013, having a growing generation surplus throughout the period. The MEA power generation estimate for 2008 is 1,200 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of 6.1% over the previous year. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 1,561TWh by 2013, representing a rise of 30.14% between 2008 and the end of the period.

MEA thermal power generation in 2008 is estimated at 1,135TWh, accounting for 94.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2013 is 1,453TWh, implying 37.59% growth that reduces slightly the market share of thermal generation to 93.1% – thanks in part to environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Qatar’s thermal generation in 2008 was 19.7TWh, or 1.74% of the regional total. By 2013, the country is expected to account for 2.12% of thermal generation.

For Qatar, gas was the dominant fuel in 2008, accounting for 79.4% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by oil at 20.6%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 887.6mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2013, representing 20.7% growth over the period since 2008. Qatar’s 2008 market share of 3.06% is set to ease to 3.02% by 2013.

Qatar is now ranked third behind the UAE in the updated Power Business Environment rating, thanks largely to its market size, low level of energy import dependency and a particularly low proportion of renewables use. The power sector is competitive, with good progress towards privatisation. The regulatory environment remains relatively unattractive. Qatar has the longer-term potential to challenge the UAE for second place.

The report forecasts real GDP growth averaging 7.82% a year in 2009-2013, with the 2009 estimate being 5.60%. The population is expected to expand from 1.45mn to 1.67mn over the period. GDP per capita is forecast to rise by 19% during 2008-13, and electricity consumption per capita is expected to increase by 25%. The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 18.0TWh in 2008 to 25.8TWh by the end of the forecast period, providing a growing generation surplus that should provide the basis for exports to other Gulf states – assuming 9.9% average annual growth in electricity generation.

Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Qatari electricity generation of 112.3%, which is one of the highest in the range for the MEA region. This equates to 35.0% in the 2013-2018 period, down from 56.5% in 2008-2013. PED growth is set to increase from 19.1% in 2008-2013 to 22.0%, representing 45.3% for the entire forecast period. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 112.3% between 2008 and 2018. More details of the longer-term power forecasts can be found towards the end of this report.