Strained relations between North and South Sudan continue to define the country’s political and security dynamic as it approaches elections in 2010 and the South’s intended referendum on independence in 2011. While the situation in Darfur remains of concern, problems in the implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) between North and South are of growing significance, and its failure has the potential to return Sudan to widespread conflict. Both the 2010 poll and the 2011 referendum could serve as flashpoints between two sides struggling to find common ground.

Signed in 2005 to end a 21-year civil war between North and South Sudan, deadlines for certain substantial provisions of the CPA are rapidly approaching. As they do, tensions between the North’s ruling National Congress Party (NCP) and the South’s Sudanese People’s Liberation Army/Movement (SPLA/M) are rising. While the NCP and SPLM signed a bilateral, and co-operative, action plan in August 2009 covering key issues including the 2010 elections, there is still disagreement over the legitimacy of the 2008 census and deadlock on the details of the 2011 referendum. In addition, both sides have accused the other of training or arming groups against them.

Worsening North-South relations are set against the backdrop of rising insecurity in South Sudan, where a complex series of local alliances and ethnic disputes have erupted on numerous occasions, with as many as 1,200 killed in 2009. The security dynamic in the South is further complicated by the presence of an unknown number of fighters from the rebel Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), an insurgency originally based in northern Uganda. After continuous low-level violence, the UN in August 2009 reported an increase in attacks and abductions by suspected LRA elements, with at least 200 reportedly killed by the LRA in the South.

On a positive note, both the NCP and SPLM welcomed the border ruling handed down by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in July 2009 for the contested province of Abyei, a resource-rich province lying between North and South Sudan. The judgement shifted the border to give the North access to the region’s richest oil field, while giving an ethnic group – expected to vote for independence in 2011 – control of the rest of the area.

Meanwhile, in Darfur, a peace deal remains elusive. Although the outgoing UN military commander for the region stated in August 2009 that the war was over, low-level violence continues. Attacks and abductions of peacekeepers and humanitarian workers have not abated, while both government airstrikes and rebel activity have been reported in the last quarter. The volatile security situation was exacerbated by the March 2009 issue of an arrest warrant for Sudan’s President Omar al-Bashir by the International Criminal Court, but appears to have since stabilised.

Intensified efforts to bring together parties for peace talks have raised hopes of a marginally closer deal, with four rival Darfur rebel factions recently announcing that they would unify for the purposes of negotiations. The lack of inter-faction unification had delayed a promised first round of peace talks with the Sudanese government, to be held in Qatar under the auspices of the Doha process. Meanwhile, Qatarmediated talks between the rebel Justice and Equality Movement (JEM) and the government were suspended in June 2009.