Energy and Utilities
Energy and Utilities
home | energy and utilities | market report
Ukraine Power Report Q4 2008 (Business Monitor International)
- Market: Energy and Utilities
- Published Date: 05/11/2008
- Report Title: Ukraine Power Report Q4 2008
- Table of Contents: View Table of Contents
- Report Type: Market Report
- Country: Ukraine
- Number of Pages: 59
The new Ukraine Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 9.8% of CEE regional power generation by 2012, and remain a modest net exporter of electricity to neighbouring states.
CEE power generation in 2007 was 2,053 terawatt hours (twh), representing an increase of 1.9% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 2,471twh by 2012, representing an increase of 20.3%.
CEE thermal power generation in 2007 was 1,294twh, accounting for 63.0% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2012 is 1,505twh, implying 16.3% growth that reduces only slightly the market share of thermal generation to 61.0% – in spite of environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Ukraine’s thermal generation in 2007 was around 92twh, or 7.1% of the regional total. By 2012, the country is expected to account for 7.6% of thermal generation.
For Ukraine, gas is the dominant fuel, in 2007 accounting for 42.8% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by coal at 28.9%, nuclear energy at 15.4%, with oil having an 11.3% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,623mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2012, representing 19.2% growth over the period. Ukraine’s 2007 market share of 9.99% is set to rise to 10.18% by 2012. Ukraine in 2007 accounted for 26.83% of regional nuclear energy consumption, with its share down to 25.28% by 2012.
Ukraine now shares eighth and last place with Hungary in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment rating, trailing Slovakia and the Czech Republic. There is no reason to expect Ukraine to be able to mount a challenge to either country over the short to medium term. There is some risk of Hungary pulling away and leaving Ukraine on its own at the foot of the table. The current score reflects the considerable size of the country’s electricity market and infrastructure. Country risk factors offset the respectable industry scores.
BMI is now forecasting Ukrainian real GDP growth averaging 5.7% per annum between 2007 and 2012, although the 2008 forecast is 6.4%. Population is expected to contract from 46.4mn to 45.4mn over the period, but GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to increase significantly.
The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from around 189twh in 2007 to 210twh by the end of the forecast period, while potential exports are expected to rise from an estimated 6twh in 2007 to 31twh in 2012, assuming 3.9% annual growth in generating capacity.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Ukrainian electricity generation of 39.1%, which is towards the bottom of the range for the CEE region. This equates to 10.4% in the 2013-2018 period, down from 23.5% in 2007-2012. PED growth is set to fall from 21.6% in 2007-2012 to 15.9%, representing 44.4% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 119% in hydro-power use during 2007- 2018 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 39.3% between 2007 and 2018, with nuclear consumption up 29.7%. More detail of BMI’s long-term forecasts can be found in the appendix of this report.
CEE power generation in 2007 was 2,053 terawatt hours (twh), representing an increase of 1.9% over the previous year. We are forecasting a rise in regional generation to 2,471twh by 2012, representing an increase of 20.3%.
CEE thermal power generation in 2007 was 1,294twh, accounting for 63.0% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2012 is 1,505twh, implying 16.3% growth that reduces only slightly the market share of thermal generation to 61.0% – in spite of environmental concerns that should be promoting renewables, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. Ukraine’s thermal generation in 2007 was around 92twh, or 7.1% of the regional total. By 2012, the country is expected to account for 7.6% of thermal generation.
For Ukraine, gas is the dominant fuel, in 2007 accounting for 42.8% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by coal at 28.9%, nuclear energy at 15.4%, with oil having an 11.3% share of PED. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 1,623mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2012, representing 19.2% growth over the period. Ukraine’s 2007 market share of 9.99% is set to rise to 10.18% by 2012. Ukraine in 2007 accounted for 26.83% of regional nuclear energy consumption, with its share down to 25.28% by 2012.
Ukraine now shares eighth and last place with Hungary in BMI’s updated Power Business Environment rating, trailing Slovakia and the Czech Republic. There is no reason to expect Ukraine to be able to mount a challenge to either country over the short to medium term. There is some risk of Hungary pulling away and leaving Ukraine on its own at the foot of the table. The current score reflects the considerable size of the country’s electricity market and infrastructure. Country risk factors offset the respectable industry scores.
BMI is now forecasting Ukrainian real GDP growth averaging 5.7% per annum between 2007 and 2012, although the 2008 forecast is 6.4%. Population is expected to contract from 46.4mn to 45.4mn over the period, but GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita are forecast to increase significantly.
The country’s power consumption is expected to increase from around 189twh in 2007 to 210twh by the end of the forecast period, while potential exports are expected to rise from an estimated 6twh in 2007 to 31twh in 2012, assuming 3.9% annual growth in generating capacity.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Ukrainian electricity generation of 39.1%, which is towards the bottom of the range for the CEE region. This equates to 10.4% in the 2013-2018 period, down from 23.5% in 2007-2012. PED growth is set to fall from 21.6% in 2007-2012 to 15.9%, representing 44.4% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 119% in hydro-power use during 2007- 2018 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 39.3% between 2007 and 2018, with nuclear consumption up 29.7%. More detail of BMI’s long-term forecasts can be found in the appendix of this report.
Purchase Information
There are various ways to purchase products from our site. Select the report title(s) you are interested in, and add it to your basket. At the Checkout page, you will be requested to submit your details. You will then have the option to pay via various methods: Debit Card ; Credit Card ; Purchase via Invoice (inc. Purchase Order no. if required) and Paypal. Companiesandmarkets.com accepts Visa, MasterCard, Diners, American Express, JCB and all the major credit cards. Companiesandmarkets.com uses RBSWorldpay.
Once you have purchased your report(s), you will receive a confirmation email. You will then either be able to download your report(s) immediately from your Customer Area in PDF format, or the report(s) will be emailed to you directly, depending on the agreement we have with the publisher. Orders that are deliverable via email which are taken outside of working hours will be delivered next business day.
Please note, if you purchase by invoice, you will receive your report(s) once payment has been received. If you have any questions about how to order, please Contact Us.
