Uzbekistan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2008 (Business Monitor International)

Uzbekistan’s pharmaceutical sector follows similar trends to other Central Asian countries. To this effect, per capita consumption is low (standing at around US$10 per annum), sales growth is high, low pricing is the norm, foreign companies dominate, state involvement is significant, and regulations are improving.

Overall, generic drugs account for the majority of the market (51.1%), followed by over-the-counter medicines (26.5%) and patented products (22.4%).

BMI’s Drug Expenditure Forecast Model reveals that spending on pharmaceuticals in Uzbekistan will increase significantly over next five years, from US$258mn in 2007 to US$645mn in 2012. This translates to compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.1%, which makes the country one of the fastest growing pharmaceutical markets in our coverage universe. In addition to the market’s previous performance, there are five other factors that contribute to our growth projection: GDP, inflation, exchange rate (UZS/US$) fluctuations, government spending, burden of disease, and demographic changes.

Uzbekistan’s pharmaceutical market is dominated by foreign firms. Indeed, all of the top ten ranking manufacturers according to sales are based abroad. Due to the anticipated emergence of high-priced patented products in Uzbekistan, we expect this scenario to continue.

Uzbekistan does not foster an environment where intellectual property rights are tightly upheld. As a result, a review is ongoing of the country’s status as a beneficiary of the US Generalized System of Preferences (GSP), a program designed to promote economic growth in the developing world. Uzbekistan has been on the USTR’s Special 301 Watch List since 2000.

BMI’s Burden of Disease Database (BoDD) reveals that Uzbekistan will become a healthier country over the next twenty years. The number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost to all disease will decrease from 3,249,699 in 2007 to 2,982,339 in 2030. The burden of non-communicable disease will fall faster than that of communicable disease - which will actually see a rise before the anticipated drop. The three main factors behind this projected drop in disease burden are: greater access to healthcare, earlier diagnoses of medical conditions and the increasing and more widespread use of pharmaceuticals.