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Vietnam Oil and Gas Report Q4 2008 (Business Monitor International)
- Market: Energy and Utilities
- Published Date: 17/10/2008
- Report Title: Vietnam Oil and Gas Report Q4 2008
- Table of Contents: View Table of Contents
- Report Type: Market Report
- Country: Vietnam
- Number of Pages: 97
The latest Vietnam Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for just 1.45% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2012, while providing 4.53% of its supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.40mn b/d in 2001 reached 25.68mn b/d in 2007. It should average 26.32mn b/d in 2008, and then rise to around 28.99mn b/d by 2012. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2007 consumed 409bcm, with demand of 565bcm targeted for 2012, representing the strongest growth globally (34.40% between 2007 and 2012). Production of 336bcm in 2007 should reach 471bcm in 2012, but implies net imports rising from 85bcm per annum in 2007 to 94bcm in 2012. This is in spite of the fact that many Asian gas producers are major exporters. Vietnam’s share of gas consumption in 2007 was 1.83%, while its share of production was 2.29%. By 2012, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 3.54%, with the country accounting for 4.45% of supply.
In Q208, we estimate that the OPEC basket price averaged just under US$115 per barrel – up around 24% from the Q108 level. The OPEC basket price had exceeded US$127 on the 22nd of May, slipping back towards US$121/bbl later in the month. In June, we assumed an average of around US$120, to deliver our quarterly estimate of US$114.98/bbl. The estimated Q208 average prices for the main marker blends are now US$118.63 for Brent, US$119.61 for WTI and US$115.89/bbl for Russian Urals (Mediterranean delivery). Our projections for 2008 as a whole have been revised upwards from the last quarterly report.
We are now assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$106 per barrel for 2008, compared with the US$81 estimate provided by our last quarterly report. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$109.71, WTI averaging US$110.64/bbl and Urals at US$106.88/bbl.
Vietnamese real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 5.5% for 2008, down from the 2007 level of 8.5%. We are assuming 7.0% growth in 2009, followed by 8.5% in 2010/11, and 8.2% in 2012.
Exploration success is on the rise in Vietnam, with a growing number of international oil companies (IOCs) partnering PetroVietnam in finding and developing hydrocarbon resources – particularly gas. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 390,000b/d by 2011/12, and the country is expected to pump 390,000b/d in 2008. Consumption is forecast to increase by 6-10% per annum to 2012, implying demand of 422,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas supply and demand is forecast to increase from the 2007 figure of 7.7bcm to 20.0bcm by 2012.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting a reduction in Vietnamese oil production of just 3.0%, with crude volumes peaking at 400,000b/d in 2009/10, before slipping to 330,000b/d by 2018. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 101%, with growth slowing to an assumed 6.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 598,000 b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise from around 7.7bcm in 2007 to 25.0bcm in 2018. With identical demand growth, we see no potential for imports or exports during the period. Details of the new BMI 10-year The latest Vietnam Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 1.45% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2012, while providing 4.53% of its supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.40mn b/d in 2001 reached 25.68mn b/d in 2007. It should average 26.32mn b/d in 2008, and then rise to around 28.99mn b/d by 2012. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2007 consumed 409bcm, with demand of 565bcm targeted for 2012, representing the strongest growth globally (34.40% between 2007 and 2012). Production of 336bcm in 2007 should reach 471bcm in 2012, but implies net imports rising from 85bcm per annum in 2007 to 94bcm in 2012. This is in spite of the fact that many Asian gas producers are major exporters. Vietnam’s share of gas consumption in 2007 was 1.83%, while its share of production was 2.29%. By 2012, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 3.54%, with the country accounting for 4.45% of supply.
In Q208, we estimate that the OPEC basket price averaged just under US$115 per barrel – up around 24% from the Q108 level. The OPEC basket price had exceeded US$127 on the 22nd of May, slipping back towards US$121/bbl later in the month. In June, we assumed an average of around US$120, to deliver our quarterly estimate of US$114.98/bbl. The estimated Q208 average prices for the main marker blends are now US$118.63 for Brent, US$119.61 for WTI and US$115.89/bbl for Russian Urals (Mediterranean delivery). Our projections for 2008 as a whole have been revised upwards from the last quarterly report.
We are now assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$106 per barrel for 2008, compared with the US$81 estimate provided by our last quarterly report. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$109.71, WTI averaging US$110.64/bbl and Urals at US$106.88/bbl.
Vietnamese real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 5.5% for 2008, down from the 2007 level of 8.5%. We are assuming 7.0% growth in 2009, followed by 8.5% in 2010/11, and 8.2% in 2012.
Exploration success is on the rise in Vietnam, with a growing number of international oil companies (IOCs) partnering PetroVietnam in finding and developing hydrocarbon resources – particularly gas. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 390,000b/d by 2011/12, and the country is expected to pump 390,000b/d in 2008. Consumption is forecast to increase by 6-10% per annum to 2012, implying demand of 422,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas supply and demand is forecast to increase from the 2007 figure of 7.7bcm to 20.0bcm by 2012.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting a reduction in Vietnamese oil production of just 3.0%, with crude volumes peaking at 400,000b/d in 2009/10, before slipping to 330,000b/d by 2018. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 101%, with growth slowing to an assumed 6.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 598,000 b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise from around 7.7bcm in 2007 to 25.0bcm in 2018. With identical demand growth, we see no potential for imports or exports during the period.
In Q208, we estimate that the OPEC basket price averaged just under US$115 per barrel – up around 24% from the Q108 level. The OPEC basket price had exceeded US$127 on the 22nd of May, slipping back towards US$121/bbl later in the month. In June, we assumed an average of around US$120, to deliver our quarterly estimate of US$114.98/bbl. The estimated Q208 average prices for the main marker blends are now US$118.63 for Brent, US$119.61 for WTI and US$115.89/bbl for Russian Urals (Mediterranean delivery). Our projections for 2008 as a whole have been revised upwards from the last quarterly report.
We are now assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$106 per barrel for 2008, compared with the US$81 estimate provided by our last quarterly report. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$109.71, WTI averaging US$110.64/bbl and Urals at US$106.88/bbl.
Vietnamese real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 5.5% for 2008, down from the 2007 level of 8.5%. We are assuming 7.0% growth in 2009, followed by 8.5% in 2010/11, and 8.2% in 2012.
Exploration success is on the rise in Vietnam, with a growing number of international oil companies (IOCs) partnering PetroVietnam in finding and developing hydrocarbon resources – particularly gas. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 390,000b/d by 2011/12, and the country is expected to pump 390,000b/d in 2008. Consumption is forecast to increase by 6-10% per annum to 2012, implying demand of 422,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas supply and demand is forecast to increase from the 2007 figure of 7.7bcm to 20.0bcm by 2012.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting a reduction in Vietnamese oil production of just 3.0%, with crude volumes peaking at 400,000b/d in 2009/10, before slipping to 330,000b/d by 2018. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 101%, with growth slowing to an assumed 6.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 598,000 b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise from around 7.7bcm in 2007 to 25.0bcm in 2018. With identical demand growth, we see no potential for imports or exports during the period. Details of the new BMI 10-year The latest Vietnam Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 1.45% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2012, while providing 4.53% of its supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.40mn b/d in 2001 reached 25.68mn b/d in 2007. It should average 26.32mn b/d in 2008, and then rise to around 28.99mn b/d by 2012. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2007 consumed 409bcm, with demand of 565bcm targeted for 2012, representing the strongest growth globally (34.40% between 2007 and 2012). Production of 336bcm in 2007 should reach 471bcm in 2012, but implies net imports rising from 85bcm per annum in 2007 to 94bcm in 2012. This is in spite of the fact that many Asian gas producers are major exporters. Vietnam’s share of gas consumption in 2007 was 1.83%, while its share of production was 2.29%. By 2012, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 3.54%, with the country accounting for 4.45% of supply.
In Q208, we estimate that the OPEC basket price averaged just under US$115 per barrel – up around 24% from the Q108 level. The OPEC basket price had exceeded US$127 on the 22nd of May, slipping back towards US$121/bbl later in the month. In June, we assumed an average of around US$120, to deliver our quarterly estimate of US$114.98/bbl. The estimated Q208 average prices for the main marker blends are now US$118.63 for Brent, US$119.61 for WTI and US$115.89/bbl for Russian Urals (Mediterranean delivery). Our projections for 2008 as a whole have been revised upwards from the last quarterly report.
We are now assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$106 per barrel for 2008, compared with the US$81 estimate provided by our last quarterly report. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$109.71, WTI averaging US$110.64/bbl and Urals at US$106.88/bbl.
Vietnamese real GDP growth is now forecast by BMI at 5.5% for 2008, down from the 2007 level of 8.5%. We are assuming 7.0% growth in 2009, followed by 8.5% in 2010/11, and 8.2% in 2012.
Exploration success is on the rise in Vietnam, with a growing number of international oil companies (IOCs) partnering PetroVietnam in finding and developing hydrocarbon resources – particularly gas. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 390,000b/d by 2011/12, and the country is expected to pump 390,000b/d in 2008. Consumption is forecast to increase by 6-10% per annum to 2012, implying demand of 422,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas supply and demand is forecast to increase from the 2007 figure of 7.7bcm to 20.0bcm by 2012.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting a reduction in Vietnamese oil production of just 3.0%, with crude volumes peaking at 400,000b/d in 2009/10, before slipping to 330,000b/d by 2018. Oil consumption between 2007 and 2018 is set to increase by 101%, with growth slowing to an assumed 6.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 598,000 b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to rise from around 7.7bcm in 2007 to 25.0bcm in 2018. With identical demand growth, we see no potential for imports or exports during the period.
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