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Commercial Insight - CNS Market Overview - Commercial dynamics and outlook of the neurology, pain and psychiatry market sectors

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Report Summary

Introduction

The market for CNS drugs across the 7MM was worth a substantial $95.5 billion, accounting for a 21.4% share of the total pharmaceutical market value in 2007. Despite stalling R&D productivity and the genericization of the majority of leading CNS blockbuster brands, the market continues to offer a wealth of lucrative opportunities for all types of drug manufacturer.

Scope

  • An inter and intra-sector view of the CNS market and its key components—neurology, pain, and psychiatry—in Japan, the US, and 5EU
  • Market size, structure, key brands, and company prescription sales value and volume data analyzed in each sector
  • Top-line analysis of key indications in each sector, drawing on key insights with disease-specific market trends and forecasts
  • Assessment of the commercial viability of the future CNS market with strategic recommendations to aid R&D decisions


  • Highlights

    When comparing the three CNS sectors the pain sector is by far the largest by volume prescriptions, accounting for 53.5% of the 2007 CNS market total. However, in terms of value, psychiatry is the dominant sector, accounting for over 48% of total CNS sales, whereas neurology is the fastest growing sector.

    On top of growing patient numbers, there remains a comparatively high unmet need in treatment of many neurological diseases. With the potential of being one of the most lucrative therapy areas in the future pharmaceutical Industry, Alzheimer’s disease offers the greatest commercial opportunity for pharmaceutical companies in neurology.

    Currently dominated by Big Pharma players and a number of multi-blockbuster antidepressant and antipsychotic brands, the psychiatry market value will begin to decrease from 2010 onwards as key patents begin to expire. Nevertheless, continued investment will eventually see the R&D pipeline yield new improved agents with blockbuster potential.

    Reasons to Purchase

  • Identify the commercial and clinical characteristics for the major CNS markets across Japan, the US and M5EU
  • Understand the future market landscape to align R&D decisions and target the indications that offer the most opportunity to your company
  • Quantify the key historical company and brand dynamics that have shaped the three CNS market sectors

  • Table of Contents

    ABOUT DATAMONITOR HEALTHCARE 2
    About the CNS pharmaceutical analysis team 2
    CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
    Scope of the analysis 3
    Datamonitor insight into the CNS market 4
    Related reports 5
    CHAPTER 2 MARKET DEFINITION 9
    Introduction 9
    CNS sector sizing 9
    Neurology and Psychiatry sector sizing methodologies 10
    Pain 10
    Geographic coverage 11
    CHAPTER 3 BACKGROUND AND OVERVIEW 13
    CNS market performance 15
    Market comparison using the main CNS ATC1 class 15
    ATC N class is the largest in terms of both sales value and sales volume 15
    CNS market performance by sector 19
    The CNS market totaled $95.48 billion in 2007 20
    CNS market performance by region 25
    High price points means US market dominates 7MM CNS market value 25
    5EU sees greatest value growth over past 4 years 26
    CNS disease sector comparison 27
    Commercial viability of CNS sectors in 2015 28
    Market dynamics of key CNS indications through to 2015 30
    Growth to arise from all three key pain disease markets 30
    Historical sector dynamics 31
    Top-line sector comparisons 31
    Brand dominance 33
    Company dominance 34
    Generic dominance 35
    CNS product analysis 38
    Leading brand analysis 38
    Psychiatric brands take up 6 of the top 10 CNS brand positions 38
    Case study analysis 1: versatile drug classes excel in the CNS market 40
    N3A - Anticonvulsants 42
    N5A - Antipsychotics 44
    N6A - Antidepressants 46
    Case study analysis 2: promotional spend in the CNS market 49
    Promotional spend by region 49
    Promotional spend by ATC4 class 50
    Promotional spend by brand 52
    Leading company involvement in the CNS market 54
    Sales performance of the top 10 CNS companies of 2007 54
    J&J consolidates its market leading position as its nearest rivals experience a decline in their CNS portfolios 54
    Sector presence 56
    Market leading company assessment 59
    J&J -CNS franchise faces a challenging future following key patent expiries 59
    Pfizer - Lyrica lays the groundwork for a new generation of CNS offerings 61
    GSK - protecting its neurology portfolio remains the immediate focus 63
    Forecast performance of other key CNS companies through to 2012 64
    Tactical acquisitions to provide greater CNS market presence for UCB and Schering Plough 65
    CHAPTER 4 NEUROLOGY 68
    Market dynamics 69
    Neurology market size and structure 69
    US and EU are key neurology growth regions 69
    Key indication market dynamics 70
    Commercial viability of key neurological indications in 2015 71
    Market dynamics and prevalence through to 2015 73
    Historical sales dynamics of key neurological indications over the period 2004-07 75
    Company analysis 81
    Neurological drugs definition 81
    Top five neurological drug companies' comparative marketed and pipeline portfolio potential 82
    Historical performance and top-line dynamics of the leading neurological drug companies in 2007 84
    Analysis of the top five neurological drug companies of 2007 87
    Star performers within the neurological drug market - Emergence of UCB, Forest and Sepracor 98
    Brand analysis 100
    Anticonvulsants dominate the top 10 selling neurological drug brands 100
    Key disease-specific insight 103
    Alzheimer's disease 103
    Key market insights 103
    Market forecast summary 104
    Disease definition 105
    Epidemiology 106
    Current market dynamics 107
    Issues affecting the global Alzheimer's disease market 109
    Key product launches and patent expiries through to 2016 113
    Epilepsy 115
    Key market insights 115
    Market forecast summary 116
    Disease definition 116
    Epidemiology 118
    Current market dynamics 120
    Key companies and leading brands in the epilepsy market 123
    Issues affecting the global epilepsy market 127
    Key product launches and patent expiries through to 2016 131
    Insomnia 133
    Key market insights 133
    Market forecast summary 134
    Disease definition 135
    Epidemiology 136
    Current market dynamics 137
    Key companies and leading brands in the Insomnia market 138
    Issues affecting the global insomnia market 141
    Key product launches and patent expiries through to 2016 143
    Migraine 146
    Key market insights 146
    Disease definition 148
    Epidemiology 149
    Current market dynamics 151
    Key companies and leading brands in the migraine market 154
    Issues affecting the global migraine market 157
    Key product launches and patent expiries through to 2016 163
    Multiple Sclerosis 166
    Key market insights 166
    Market forecast summary 168
    Disease definition 168
    Epidemiology 169
    Current market dynamics 170
    Key companies and leading brands in the MS market 173
    Environmental issues affecting the seven major MS markets 174
    Key product launches and patent expiries through to 2016 178
    Parkinson's disease 181
    Key market insights 181
    Market forecast summary 183
    Disease definition 183
    Epidemiology 184
    Current market dynamics 186
    Unmet needs in Parkinson's disease 187
    Key product launches and patent expiries through to 2016 189
    Other orphan neurological disorders 191
    Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS/Motor neuron disease) 191
    Huntington's disease 195
    CHAPTER 5 PAIN 200
    Market dynamics 202
    Pain market size and structure 202
    5EU is the key historical pain sector growth market 202
    Key indication market dynamics 203
    Commercial viability of key pain indications in 2015 204
    Market dynamics and prevalence through to 2015 206
    Historical sales dynamics of the three key pain indications over the period 2003-06 208
    Company analysis 211
    Pain drugs definition 211
    Top five pain drug companies' comparative marketed and pipeline portfolio potential 212
    Historical performance and top-line dynamics of the leading pain drug companies of 2007 214
    Analysis of the top five pain drug companies of 2007 217
    Star performer in the pain drug market 229
    Major sector loser in the pain drug market 229
    Brand analysis 230
    Generic nature of pain sector sees leading brands being less dominant over market 230
    Key non-traditional analgesics used in pain 231
    Anticonvulsants for pain - Pregabalin and gabapentin gain significant revenues from neuropathic pain 232
    Antidepressants for pain - Neuropathic pain an important revenue generator for Lilly's Cymbalta 233
    Key disease-specific insight 234
    Breakthrough pain 234
    Key market insights 234
    Market forecast summary 235
    Disease definition 235
    Epidemiology 236
    Unmet needs in breakthrough pain 237
    Fibromyalgia 237
    Key market insights 237
    Market forecast summary 238
    Disease definition 239
    Epidemiology 239
    Current treatment approaches for fibromyalgia 240
    Unmet needs in fibromyalgia 241
    Neuropathic pain 242
    Key market insights 242
    Market forecast summary 243
    Disease definition 243
    Epidemiology 244
    Current market dynamics 248
    Current treatment approaches for neuropathic pain 249
    Unmet needs in neuropathic pain 252
    Traditional analgesic class dynamics 252
    Opioids 252
    Key market insights 253
    Market forecast summary 253
    Current market dynamics 254
    Key product launches and patent expiries through to 2016 255
    NSAIDs 258
    Current market dynamics 258
    Key brands in the NSAID market 262
    CHAPTER 6 PSYCHIATRY 264
    Market dynamics 266
    Psychiatry market size and structure 266
    US psychiatry sales dwarf that from the 5EU and Japan 266
    Key indication market dynamics 267
    Commercial viability of key psychiatric indications in 2015 268
    Market dynamics and prevalence through to 2015 270
    Historical sales dynamics of key psychiatric indications over the period 2003-06 273
    Company analysis 276
    Psychiatric drugs definition 276
    Top five psychiatric drug companies' comparative marketed and pipeline portfolio potential 277
    Historical performance and top-line dynamics of the leading psychiatric drug companies of 2008 279
    Analysis of the top five psychiatric drug companies of 2007 282
    Star performers within the psychiatric drug market - Teva and Reckitt Benckiser 297
    Major psychiatric drug sector losers - Pfizer and GSK suffer after key antidepressants go generic 299
    Brand analysis 301
    Atypical antipsychotics and antidepressants fill nine of the top 10 places 301
    Key non-traditional psychiatric drugs used in psychiatry 302
    Anticonvulsants are regularly used to treat bipolar maintenance 303
    Key disease-specific insight 304
    Anxiety 304
    Key market insights 304
    Market forecast summary 304
    Disease definition 305
    Epidemiology 307
    Current market dynamics 308
    Unmet needs in Anxiety 309
    ADHD 310
    Key market insights 310
    Market forecast summary 312
    Disease definition 312
    Epidemiology 313
    Current market dynamics 316
    Issues affecting the global ADHD market 318
    Key product launches and patent expiries through to 2017 325
    Bipolar disorder 328
    Key market insights 328
    Market forecast summary 329
    Disease definition 330
    Epidemiology 335
    Current market dynamics 335
    Unmet needs in bipolar disorder 338
    Depression (Manic depressive disorder) 339
    Key market insights 339
    Market forecast summary 340
    Disease definition 341
    Epidemiology 342
    Current market dynamics 343
    Timeline of key events in the depression disease market 345
    Issues affecting the global depression market 347
    Key product launches and patent expiries through to 2016 351
    Nicotine dependence 354
    Key market insights 354
    Market forecast summary 355
    Disease definition 355
    Epidemiology 357
    Current market dynamics 358
    Unmet needs in nicotine dependence 361
    Schizophrenia 362
    Key market insights 362
    Market forecast summary 362
    Disease definition 363
    Epidemiology 364
    Current market dynamics 364
    Unmet needs in schizophrenia 365
    BIBLIOGRAPHY 367
    Literature 367
    Websites 381
    Datamonitor sources 389
    APPENDIX A 392
    International Classification of Diseases 392
    Disease of the nervous system (neurology) 392
    Mental and behavioral disorders (Psychiatry) 392
    Estimated 2007 sales revenue 393
    Top five sector drug companies' comparative marketed and pipeline portfolio potential methodology 393
    Marketed potential 393
    Pipeline potential 394
    ATC classes included in 'others' to define the migraine market 395
    ICD-10 codes used to define neuropathic pain market 396
    APPENDIX B 398
    Report methodology 398
    About Datamonitor 398
    About Datamonitor Healthcare 398
    About the CNS analysis team 399
    Disclaimer 400
    List of Tables
    Table 1: Key dynamics - Nervous system versus other therapeutic sectors, 7MM, 2004-07 17
    Table 2: Central nervous system sector dynamic comparison - key volume and value metrics, 7MM, 2004-07 22
    Table 3: Central nervous system regional dynamic comparison - key volume and value metrics, 7MM, 2004-07 27
    Table 4: Commercial viability of the three CNS market sectors in 2015 29
    Table 5: Market attractiveness - brand, company and generic dominance of the three CNS sectors, 7MM, 2007 32
    Table 6: Top 10 selling CNS brands across the 7MM, 2007 38
    Table 7: Top 10 CNS companies by CNS drug revenues across the 7MM, 2007 55
    Table 8: Sector rankings of the top 10 CNS companies in 2007 56
    Table 9: Other leading CNS companies according to forecast revenues, 2006-2012 65
    Table 10: Commercial viability of key neurological indications in 2015 72
    Table 11: Top 20 neurological drug companies by 2007 seven major market revenues, 2004-07 81
    Table 12: Top five neurological drug companies in the 7MM by revenue versus the rest of the market, 2004-07 85
    Table 13: Top five neurological drug companies by 7MM revenue versus rest of market, 2004-07 86
    Table 14: GSK's neurological drug portfolio overview, 2004-07 88
    Table 15: GSK's late-stage neurology pipeline, 2004-07 89
    Table 16: J&J's neurological drug portfolio overview, 2004-07 91
    Table 17: J&J's late-stage neurology pipeline, 2008 91
    Table 18: Pfizer's neurological drug portfolio overview, 2004-07 92
    Table 19: Pfizer's late-stage neurology pipeline, 2008 93
    Table 20: Eisai's neurological drug portfolio overview, 2004-07 94
    Table 21: Eisai's late-stage neurology pipeline, 2008 95
    Table 22: Sanofi-Aventis's neurological drug portfolio overview, 2004-07 96
    Table 23: Sanofi-Aventis's late-stage neurology pipeline, 2008 97
    Table 24: Star performing neurological drug companies in the 7MM, 2004-07 98
    Table 25: Top 10 neurological brands in the 7MM by revenue, 2004-07 101
    Table 26: Population size and prevalence rate of Alzheimer's disease across the 7MM, 2008 106
    Table 27: Summary of key environmental issues in the AD market across the 7MM, 2008 110
    Table 28: Estimated launch dates for new Alzheimer's disease drugs in the 7MM, 2008-2017 114
    Table 29: Patent expiry dates for the key approved Alzheimer's disease brands in the 7MM, 2008-2017 114
    Table 30: Prevalence of epilepsy across the 7MM, 2008 118
    Table 31: Key players in the epilepsy market, 2007 125
    Table 32: Summary of environmental issues in the epilepsy market across the 7MM, 2008 128
    Table 33: Estimated launch dates for new epilepsy drugs in the 7MM, 2007-2016 132
    Table 34: Patent expiry dates for the key approved epilepsy brands in the 7MM, 2007-2016 133
    Table 35: Diagnosed prevalence of insomnia in the 7MM, 2008 136
    Table 36: Performance of the US, 5EU and Japan insomnia markets, 2005-06 137
    Table 37: Key players in the insomnia market, 2007 139
    Table 38: Summary of environmental issues in the seven major insomnia markets, 2007 141
    Table 39: Estimated launch dates for new insomnia drugs in the 7MM, 2008-2016 145
    Table 40: Dates of key patent expiries in the insomnia market across the 7MM, 2007-2016 145
    Table 41: Prevalence of migraine across the 7MM, 2008 150
    Table 42: Migraine population across the 7MM, 2008 151
    Table 43: Key players in the migraine market, 2007 154
    Table 44: Summary of environmental issues in the migraine market across the 7MM, 2007 157
    Table 45: Datamonitor's estimated launch dates for migraine products in the 7MM, 2008-2016 165
    Table 46: Key patent expiries of migraine brands across the 7MM, 2008-2016 166
    Table 47: Prevalence of multiple sclerosis across the 7MM, 2008 170
    Table 48: Key players in the multiple sclerosis market, 2007 174
    Table 49: Summary of environmental issues in the multiple sclerosis market across the 7MM, 2007 175
    Table 50: Datamonitor's estimated launch dates for MS products in the 7MM, 2008-2016 180
    Table 51: Patent expiry dates for the approved multiple sclerosis disease-modifiers in the 7MM, 2008-2016 180
    Table 52: Prevalence of PD across the 7MM, 2008 184
    Table 53: Datamonitor's estimated launch dates for Parkinson's disease products in the 7MM, 2008-2016 190
    Table 54: Key patent expiries of Parkinson's disease brands across the 7MM, 2008-2016 190
    Table 55: Prevalence estimates of ALS across the 7MM, 2008 193
    Table 56: HD base scenario prevalence and patient population in the 6MM, 2008 197
    Table 57: Commercial viability of key pain indications in 2015 205
    Table 58: Top 20 pain drug companies by 7MM revenue, 2004-07 211
    Table 59: Top five pain drug companies in the by revenues versus the rest of the market, 2004-07 215
    Table 60: Top five pain drug companies by 7MM revenues versus rest of market, 2004-07 215
    Table 61: Pfizer's pain drug portfolio overview, 2004-07 217
    Table 62: Pfizer's late-stage pain pipeline, 2008 219
    Table 63: J&J's pain drug portfolio overview, 2004-07 220
    Table 64: J&J's late-stage pain pipeline, 2008 221
    Table 65: Mundi's pain drug portfolio overview, 2004-07 222
    Table 66: Mundi's late-stage pain pipeline, 2008 223
    Table 67: Endo's pain drug portfolio overview, 2004-07 225
    Table 68: Endo's late-stage pain pipeline, 2008 226
    Table 69: Teva's pain drug portfolio overview, 2004-07 227
    Table 70: Star performing pain drug company in the 7MM, 2004-07 229
    Table 71: Major pain drug sector company loser in the 7MM, 2004-07 230
    Table 72: Top 10 pain brands by 7MM revenues, 2004-07 231
    Table 73: Prevalence of fibromyalgia across the 7MM, 2008 240
    Table 74: The diabetic neuropathic pain patient populations across the 7MM, 2008 246
    Table 75: The HIV neuropathic pain patient population across the 7MM, 2008 247
    Table 76: The post herpetic neuralgia patient population across the 7MM, 2008 248
    Table 77: Estimated launch dates for new opioid drugs in the US and 5EU, 2008-2012 257
    Table 78: Estimated launch dates for new opioid drugs in the Japan, 2008-2012 258
    Table 79: Pivotal patent expiries for key marketed opioid drugs in the US and 5EU, 2008-2017 258
    Table 80: Commercial viability of key psychiatry indications, 2015 268
    Table 81: Top 20 psychiatric drug companies by 2007 seven major market revenues 276
    Table 82: Top five psychiatric drug companies 7MM revenues versus the rest of the market, 2004-07 280
    Table 83: Top five psychiatry drug companies by 2007 seven major market revenues versus rest of market 281
    Table 84: Lilly's psychiatric drug portfolio overview, 2004-07 283
    Table 85: Lilly's late-stage psychiatry pipeline, 2008 284
    Table 86: J&J's psychiatric drug portfolio overview, 2004-07 286
    Table 87: J&J's late-stage psychiatry pipeline, 2008 288
    Table 88: AstraZeneca's psychiatric drug portfolio overview, 2004-07 290
    Table 89: AstraZeneca's late-stage psychiatry pipeline, 2008 291
    Table 90: Wyeth's psychiatric drug portfolio overview, 2004-07 293
    Table 91: Wyeth's late-stage psychiatry pipeline, 2008 294
    Table 92: Forest's psychiatric drug portfolio overview, 2004-07 296
    Table 93: Star performing psychiatric drug companies in the 7MM, 2004-07 298
    Table 94: Top 10 psychiatric brands by 7MMrevenues, 2004-07 301
    Table 95: ICD-10 classification codes for anxiety disorders 306
    Table 96: DSM-IV classification codes for anxiety disorders 307
    Table 97: Prevalence rate of subcategories of anxiety disorder in the general population across the 7MM 308
    Table 98: Results of epidemiology studies of ADHD across the 7MM 314
    Table 99: Prevalence of ADHD in the 7MM, 2008 316
    Table 100: Performance of the seven major ADHD markets, 2006-07e 318
    Table 101: Summary of environmental issues in the ADHD market across the 7MM, 2008 319
    Table 102: Datamonitor's forecast launch dates for key ADHD pipeline products in the 7MM, 2008-2017 327
    Table 103: Key patent expiries for key marketed drugs in the US and 5EU, 2008-2017 328
    Table 104: Diagnostic criteria for bipolar I disorders 333
    Table 105: Diagnostic criteria for other types of bipolar disorders 334
    Table 106: Prevalence data overview of bipolar disorder in the US, Canada and Switzerland, 2008 335
    Table 107: Prevalence rate and population size for MDD across the 7MM, 2008 343
    Table 108: Summary of environmental issues in the seven major MDD markets, 2007 347
    Table 109: Datamonitor's forecast launch dates for key depression pipeline products in the US and 5EU, 2008-2016 352
    Table 110: Datamonitor's forecast launch dates for key depression pipeline products in Japan, 2008-2016 353
    Table 111: Key depression drugs forecast to face generic competition during the forecast period, 2007-2016 353
    Table 112: DSM-IV criteria for nicotine dependence 356
    Table 113: Prevalence of nicotine dependence in the 7MM, 2008 358
    Table 114: Sales, growth and market share of Zyban and Chantix, 2005-06 360
    Table 115: Key OTC nicotine replacement products, 2008 361
    Table 116: Other ATC classes included for migraine market definition 395
    Table 117: Neuropathic pain market definition by ICD-10 codes 396
    List of Figures
    Figure 1: Key dynamics - Nervous system versus other key therapeutic sectors, 7MM, 2004-07 19
    Figure 2: Central nervous system market sales value split by sector, 2004-07 21
    Figure 3: Central nervous system overview - key value and volume sales dynamics by sector, 7MM, 2004-07 24
    Figure 4: Central nervous system market sales volume and sales value split by region, 2004-07 26
    Figure 5: Market dynamics of key CNS indications, 2007-2015 31
    Figure 6: CNS overview - market attractiveness by sector, 7MM, 2007 33
    Figure 7: Comparative concentration of product sales in the neurology, pain and psychiatry markets - cumulative market share of top selling products in the 7MM, 2007 34
    Figure 8: Comparative concentration of company sales in the neurology, pain and psychiatry markets - cumulative market share of top companies in the 7MM, 2007 35
    Figure 9: CNS sector branded versus generic share as a proportion of 2007 sector sales revenues 36
    Figure 10: CNS sector branded share as a proportion of sector sales revenues, 2004-07 37
    Figure 11: Leading brand sales versus rest of market, 7MM, 2007 39
    Figure 12: Seven major market CNS market sales value comparison by ATC3 class, 2006-2007 41
    Figure 13: N3A-anticonvulsant ATC3 class sales value split by diagnosis, 2004-2007 42
    Figure 14: Sales split of key anticonvulsant brands by diagnosis, 2007 43
    Figure 15: N5A-antipsychotic ATC3 class sales value split by diagnosis, 2004-2007 44
    Figure 16: Sales split of key antipsychotic brands by diagnosis, 2007 45
    Figure 17: N6A-antidepressant ATC3 class sales value split by diagnosis, 2004-2007 47
    Figure 18: Sales split of key antidepressant brands by diagnosis, 2007 48
    Figure 19: Promotional spend in the US and 5EU CNS markets, 2004-06 50
    Figure 20: Key dynamics of the top 10 highest promotional spend CNS ATC4 classes in the US, 2005-2006 51
    Figure 21: Key dynamics of the top 10 highest promotional spend CNS ATC4 classes in the 5EU, 2005-2006 52
    Figure 22: Key dynamics of the top 10 highest promotional spend CNS brands in the US, 2005-2006 53
    Figure 23: Key dynamics of the top 10 highest promotional spend CNS brands in the 5EU, 2005-2006 54
    Figure 24: Top 10 CNS companies' portfolio sector bias across the seven major market neurological, pain and psychiatric drug sectors, 2007 58
    Figure 25: Neurology market sales value split by region, 2004-07 69
    Figure 26: Neurology market sales volume split by region, 2004-07 70
    Figure 27: Market dynamics and prevalence of key neurological indications, 2007-2015 74
    Figure 28: Seven major market sales volume dynamics of the key neurology indications, 2003-06 76
    Figure 29: Seven major market sales value dynamics of the key neurology indications, 2003-06 78
    Figure 30: Regional variations in volume and value sales of key neurology indications, 2006 80
    Figure 31: Comparative potential of the top five neurological drug companies' marketed and late-stage pipeline portfolios, 2008 83
    Figure 32: Top five neurological drug companies 7MM revenue versus rest of market, 2004-07 87
    Figure 33: Top 10 neurological brands in the 7MM by sales revenue, 2007 102
    Figure 34: Datamonitor's base scenario Alzheimer's disease market forecast across the 7MM, 2007-2017 105
    Figure 35: Overview of Datamonitor's AD population size methodology, 2008 107
    Figure 36: AD-specific sales revenue, 7MM, 2003-07 108
    Figure 37: AD-specific sales revenue ($ billions) by region, 2004-07 109
    Figure 38: Forecast AD population, 2005-2050 110
    Figure 39: Ageing population across 7MM, 2005-2050 111
    Figure 40: Impact of each key event on the AD market across the seven major markets, 2008-2017 113
    Figure 41: Datamonitor's epilepsy market forecast across the 7MM, 2007-2016 116
    Figure 42: Incidence of epilepsy in different age groups 119
    Figure 43: Epilepsy market value across the 7MM ($ billions), 2003-06 120
    Figure 44: Sales volume (SUs billions) and value ($ billions) of first- versus second-generation anticonvulsants, 2003-06 121
    Figure 45: Performance of the nine key epilepsy therapies ($m), 2005-06 122
    Figure 46: Timeline: launch dates and patent expiries impacting the epilepsy market, 1995-2007 124
    Figure 47: Impact of key events on the 7MM epilepsy market, 2007-2016 131
    Figure 48: Datamonitor's insomnia market forecast across the 7MM, 2007-2016 135
    Figure 49: Performance of the key insomnia therapies, 2005-06 138
    Figure 50: Key drug launches and patent expiries in the insomnia market 1992-2006 139
    Figure 51: Population aged over 65 years in the 7MM, 2007-2017 142
    Figure 52: Key events impacting the insomnia market, 2007-2016 144
    Figure 53: Datamonitor's migraine market forecast across the 7MM, 2007-2016 148
    Figure 54: Migraine-specific sales revenue across the 7MM ($ billions), 2003-06 152
    Figure 55: Performance of the nine key migraine therapies across the 7MM ($m), 2005-06 153
    Figure 56: Migraine-specific sales in the 7MM for the four leading migraine prophylaxis drug classes ($m), 2003-06 158
    Figure 57: Migraine-specific standard units prescribed in the 7MM for the four leading migraine prophylaxis drug classes, 2003-06 159
    Figure 58: Total Topamax brand sales ($m) by indication in the US, 2003-06 160
    Figure 59: Generic sumatriptan's impact in the German, Spanish and UK migraine markets ($m and SUs), 2006 162
    Figure 60: Forecasted impact of Imitrex and Topamax patent expiry on the US migraine market ($ billion), 2006-2016 163
    Figure 61: Key events impacting the migraine market, 2007-2016 164
    Figure 62: Datamonitor's multiple sclerosis market forecast across the 7MM, 2007-2016 168
    Figure 63: World distribution of multiple sclerosis 169
    Figure 64: Multiple sclerosis market value across the 7MM ($ billions), 2003-06 171
    Figure 65: Performance of the six disease-modifying multiple sclerosis therapies , 2005-06 172
    Figure 66: Timeline: launch dates of disease-modifying therapies for treatment of multiple sclerosis, 1993-2006 173
    Figure 67: Key events impacting the multiple sclerosis market, 2007-2016 179
    Figure 68: Datamonitor's Parkinson's disease market forecast across the 7MM, 2007-2016 183
    Figure 69: Age at diagnosis for each stage of PD, 2007 185
    Figure 70: Parkinson's disease-specific sales revenue across the 7MM ($ billions), 2003-06 186
    Figure 71: Performance of the seven key Parkinson's disease therapies across the 7MM ($m), 2005-06 187
    Figure 72: Key unmet needs in Parkinson's disease, 2007 188
    Figure 73: Key events impacting the Parkinson's disease market 2007-2016 189
    Figure 74: Total ALS market sales revenue ($m), 2003-06 194
    Figure 75: Key unmet needs in ALS treatment 195
    Figure 76: Total sales revenue of the six major HD markets by drug class, 2003-06 198
    Figure 77: Unmet needs in HD treatment, 2007 199
    Figure 78: Pain market sales value split by region, 2004-07 202
    Figure 79: Pain market sales volume split by region, 2004-07 203
    Figure 80: Market dynamics and prevalence of key pain indications, 2007-2015 207
    Figure 81: Seven major market sales volume dynamics of the key pain indications, 2003-06 209
    Figure 82: Seven major market sales value dynamics of the key pain indications, 2003-06 210
    Figure 83: Comparative potential of the top five pain drug companies' marketed and late-stage pipeline portfolios, 2008 213
    Figure 84: Top five pain drug companies by 7MM revenues versus rest of market, 2004-07 216
    Figure 85: Key neurological drugs used for pain indications, 2007 232
    Figure 86: Cymbalta total brand sales breakdown by sector, 2007 233
    Figure 87: Datamonitor's breakthrough pain market forecast across the 7MM, 2006-2016 235
    Figure 88: US and 5EU fibromyalgia market ($m), 2006-2016 238
    Figure 89: Datamonitor's neuropathic pain market forecast across the 7MM, 2007-2016 243
    Figure 90: Neuropathic pain-specific sales revenue across the 7MM ($ billions), 2003-06 249
    Figure 91: Key unmet needs in neuropathic pain, 2008 252
    Figure 92: Datamonitor's opioid market forecast across the 7MM, 2007-2017 254
    Figure 93: Opioid sales revenue (as a percentage of total 2004 sales) across the 7MM, 2004-07 255
    Figure 94: Impact of each key event on the opioid market across the 7MM, 2007-12 256
    Figure 95: NSAID sales revenue across the 7MM ($ billions), 2003-07 259
    Figure 96: NSAID sales volume across the 7MM (SU billions), 2003-07 260
    Figure 97: Sales revenues of the M1A1 and M1A3 ATC classes across the 7MM ($ billions), 2003-07 261
    Figure 98: Sales volume of the M1A1 and M1A3 ATC classes across the 7MM (SU billions), 2003-07 262
    Figure 99: Performance of the key NSAID brands across the 7MM ($m), 2006-07 263
    Figure 100: Psychiatry market sales value split by region, 2004-07 266
    Figure 101: Psychiatry market sales volume split by region, 2004-07 267
    Figure 102: Market dynamics and prevalence of key psychiatric indications, 2007-2015 271
    Figure 103: Seven major market sales volume dynamics of the key psychiatric indications, 2003-06 273
    Figure 104: Seven major market sales value dynamics of the key psychiatry indications, 2003-06 275
    Figure 105: Comparative potential of the top five psychiatric drug companies' marketed and late-stage pipeline portfolios, 2008 278
    Figure 106: Top five psychiatry drug companies by 7MM revenues versus rest of market, 2004-07 282
    Figure 107: Performance of Pfizer's and GSK's psychiatry portfolios by 7MM revenues versus the top five and the rest of the market, 2004-07 299
    Figure 108: Key neurological drugs used for psychiatric indications, 2007 303
    Figure 109: Datamonitor's anxiety disorders market forecast across the 7MM, 2006-2015 305
    Figure 110: Anxiety-specific sales revenue across the 7MM ($ billions), 2002-05 309
    Figure 111: Reasons why patients receiving antidepressant therapy are non-compliant 310
    Figure 112: Datamonitor's ADHD market forecast across the 7MM, 2007-2017 312
    Figure 113: ADHD market value across the 7MM ($ billions), 2004-07 317
    Figure 114: Sales revenue ($m) of ADHD drugs prescribed for pediatric, adolescent and adult patients, 2004-07 320
    Figure 115: Growth of sales revenue ($m) of drugs prescribed for pediatric, adolescent and adult ADHD in the US, 2004-07 322
    Figure 116: Impact of each key event on the ADHD market across the seven major markets, 2008-2017 326
    Figure 117: Datamonitor's bipolar disorder market forecast across the 7MM, 2006-2015 330
    Figure 118: Symptoms associated with the two primary phases of bipolar disorder 332
    Figure 119: Bipolar-specific sales revenue across the 7MM ($ billions), 2002-05 336
    Figure 120: Key unmet needs in bipolar disorder, 2006 339
    Figure 121: Datamonitor's MDD market forecast across the 7MM, 2007-2016 341
    Figure 122: MDD market value across the 7MM ($ billions), 2003-06 344
    Figure 123: MDD-specific sales revenues across the 7MM by drug class, 2006 345
    Figure 124: Key events impacting the MDD market, 1950-2007 346
    Figure 125: Generic incursion on branded MDD-specific antidepressant sales in the US (SUs), 2003-2016 349
    Figure 126: Key events impacting the MDD market, 2007-2016 351
    Figure 127: Datamonitor's nicotine dependence market forecast across the 7MM, 2007-2016 355
    Figure 128: Total sales of the key prescription nicotine dependence products by region ($m), 2003-06 359
    Figure 129: Datamonitor's schizophrenia market forecast across the 7MM, 2006-2015 363
    Figure 130: Schizophrenia-specific sales revenue across the 7MM ($ billions), 2002-05 365