Report Summary

Years of hostilities and political stalemate have taken a heavy toll on the Côte d'Ivoire. Measured by the Human Development Index (2006), the Côte d'Ivoire is ranked 164th out of 177 countries. The HIV/AIDS prevalence rate is currently estimated at 4.7% and is higher in conflict-affected areas. Poverty has increased from 38.2% just before hostilities commenced in 2002 to 43.2% in 2006.

The hostilities have also taken a heavy toll on Côte d'Ivoire's business environment. The stabilisation of the political situation and the potential for long-anticipated elections to take place in November 2008 suggest that significant improvements could be on the cards over the coming years. However, the challenges are considerable: aside from a frail physical infrastructure and low education levels, the country's institutions, especially the judicial system, remain weak and plagued by corruption. Moreover, personal security on the ground is likely to remain compromised by high crime levels and inefficient law enforcement over the medium term.

We project that the Ivorian economy has the potential to experience sustainable economic growth over the coming decade on the back of base effects following the civil war and a noticeable expansion in the extractive industry, with real GDP growth expected to average 4.5% annually between 2008 and 2017.

While the government will make efforts to diversify the country's export industry more towards manufactured goods, we believe that the agricultural sector and the extractive industries will represent the backbone of Côte d'Ivoire's economic growth over our 10-year forecast period.

We acknowledge that our favourable outlook is highly dependent on the assumption that political stability and an effective reunification of the southern and northern parts of the country can be achieved over the medium term. We acknowledge that there are considerable downside risks to the peaceful holding of the presidential elections scheduled for November 2008, and a renewed outbreak of violence would substantially undermine the prospects for sustained long-term economic recovery. Having said that, compared to previous years, the unity government led by incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo and Prime Minister Guillaume Soro has made considerable progress regarding preparations for the elections over the course of 2007 and 2008, which have significantly increased the chances of a successful conclusion of the poll and a normalisation of politics.

Encouragingly, the government announced several infrastructure projects in mid-2008, such as expanding the road network and increasing the capacity of the country's main sea ports in Abidjan and San Pedro.

These projects, some of which have been enabled by assistance from the African Development Bank, will assist Côte d'Ivoire to become a strategic maritime transit hub for landlocked West African countries such as Mali. The World Bank has granted some US$94mn for projects to improve urban infrastructure, including water and sanitation services. Yet more funds must be allocated towards infrastructure developments in the years to come, in order to avoid any significant bottlenecks in light of Côte d'Ivoire's expected economic recovery (barring a collapse in political stability).