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Israel Defence and Security Report Q3 2008

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Report Summary

At the end of June the US Congress approved a US$170mn increase in security assistance for Israel, as part of a 10-year US$30bn defence aid commitment to the country. A US-based pro-Israel lobby, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) welcomed the decision, saying it would boost US aid to Israel to US$2.55bn in fiscal 2009, up from US$2.38bn in fiscal 2008. AIPAC said the aid had added significance this year ‘as the US and Israel face new challenges from Iran’s drive to acquire nuclear weapons as well as the growing influence of radical anti-Western forces to Israel’s south in Gaza and to the north in Lebanon’ Although domestic and international relations are in trouble, BMI does not see a significant change to the level of threat to Israel’s security for the foreseeable future. Israel will continue to exist within a highly volatile region and be at risk of attacks from both internal and external parties. This is not new to Israel. It has existed under these conditions, and far worse, since its creation and has built up sophisticated and well tuned mechanisms for combating such threats. Whilst not numerically great, its armed forces are well-trained, well-armed and highly experienced. Perhaps more importantly, Israel is supported by the world’s only superpower, the US, which donates enormous quantities of military aid and equipment to the Israeli Defence Force (IDF). Israel’s armed forces are also supported by one of the world’s most advanced defence industries, which benefits from large amounts of support from the government in the form of contracts. Israeli arms exports are currently flourishing, with lucrative relationships created with major weapons purchasers such as India and Turkey. In 2006, transfers totalled some US$4.5bn, ranking Israel in the top five exporters in the world. Arms imports are also likely to be sustained at a significant level by several long-running procurement programmes and an increase in foreign military financing (FMF) from the US. BMI’s newly-released Israel Defence & Security Report concludes that the Israeli defence industry is set to thrive regardless of the immediate political or security environment in which it operates.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary .5

SWOT Analysis ..6

Israel Political SWOT ...... 6

Israel Security SWOT 6

Israel Defence Industry SWOT .. 7

Israel Economics SWOT .. 7

Israel Business Environment SWOT .. 8

Political Overview .9

External Political Outlook ...... 10

Security Risk Analysis ....13

BMI’s Security Ratings .. 13

Table: Middle East And Africa Security Ratings 13

Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index .. 14

Regional Security: The Middle East And North Africa ..14

Inter-State Conflicts 14

Internal Conflicts .. 17

Israel – Security Risk Ratings 18

Israel – Conflict Risk ..... 18

Israel – Terrorism Risk .. 19

Israel – Physical Safety Risk ... 19

Security Risk Overview..20

Table: Insurgent Groups In Israel ... 20

Latest Developments ...... 22

Internal Security: Recent Developments ... 23

External Security Situation .....24

Background Brief: Israel’s Wars ..... 26

Latest Developments ...... 28

External Security: Recent Developments .. 30

Military Structure And Defence Industry .31

Armed Forces 31

Table: Regional Armed Forces, 2007 (including conscript 31

Current Strength ... 32

Historical Strength 33

International Deployments ...... 34

Weapons Of Mass Destruction 34

Table: Israeli Nuclear-Capable Delivery Vehicles ..... 35

Market Overview .36

Arms Trade Overview .... 37

Imports 37

Exports 38

Industry Trends And Developments . 40

Table: Key Players – Israel Defence Sector 40

Procurement Trends And Developments ... 42

Latest Developments ...... 45

Defence Industry: Recent Developments ... 45

Industry Forecast Scenario .46

Table: Israel Defence Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts .... 46
Table: Israel Defence Sector – Government Expenditure .... 47
Arms Trade 48
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario ..... 49
Macroeconomic Forecast ......50
Table: Economic Activity . 52
Company Profiles ......53
General Dynamics 53
Rafael Armament Development Authority . 55
Israel Military Industries . 57
Elbit Systems 59
Elisra Group 61
BMI Forecast Modelling ..62
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 62
Defence Industry ... 62
Sources .63