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Jordan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2008

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Report Summary

In BMI’s Business Environment Ratings Table for Q408, Jordan is placed in seventh position out of the 15 markets surveyed in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, with the table now including Kenya and Algeria. Jordan’s position worsened by one spot in relation to Q308, with Saudi Arabia improving its score and rising up the table. Nevertheless, Jordan has considerable commercial potential in regional terms, which is boosted by friendly relations with the West and growing Arab regional cooperation and high drug prices. While the overall market is small in global terms (less than US$340mn in 2007), expenditure on pharmaceuticals should grow at an average of 8.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) over the forecast period (2008-2012), topping US$502mn.

Jordanian pharmaceutical producers have been suffering from rising manufacturing costs, strong competition in the unbranded generics sector and the absence of price increases for drugs. A number of them recently posted – at best - mixed financial results. The leading producer, Hikma, reported that its Q108 group revenue increased by an impressive 33.4% to US$299.9mn, while operating profit declined a disappointing 9% to US$47.1mn. Similarly, Dar Al Dawa (DAD)’s recorded sales of JOD8.4mn (US$11.8mn) in Q108, which was a 2.7% decrease on the same period last year. Meanwhile, the net profit margin was 18.4%, compared to 28.6% in Q107, which was partly blamed on a rise in the amount of recalls – specifically expired goods held by wholesalers. In July 2008, Jordanian Pharmaceutical Manufacturing (JPM) also announced disappointing net profits of JOD1.6mn (US$2.3mn) for 2007, down 22.6% on its 2006 results. The fall in profitability appears all the more concerning when contrasted against its sales performance, which improved by 30.4% y-o-y to reach JOD21.2mn (US$29.8mn).

Other healthcare sectors are also expected to record similar growth rates. For example, the value of Jordan’s medical device market – estimated at JOD53mn (US$75mn) in 2007 – is forecast to average 7.6% y-o-y, broadly in line with health expenditure trends. Growth should be driven by a strengthening private healthcare sector, which is itself being buoyed by medical tourism. As Jordan’s medical device market is almost entirely dependent on imports, foreign producers stand to benefit, as especially as the country is seen as a gateway to the East Mediterranean region. At the same time, however, domestic players will continue to struggle, with Arab Food and Medical Appliances filing for bankruptcy in January 2008.

The government set the target of carving out a share of the global medical tourism market, which reached a value US$20bn in 2005. By 2010, the government hopes that the combined value of medical tourism from the public and private sectors will be worth US$1bn a year to the Jordanian economy. This target should drive significant upgrading of equipment and supplies. In April 2008, construction of the Baqaa Basin Hospital, a 100-bed government health facility, began. The development should be completed by the end of 2009, with the government pledging more than JOD5mn (US$7mn) of medical devices and equipment for the hospital.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary .........5
Jordan Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT..... 6
Jordan Political SWOT.......................................................... 7
Jordan Economic SWOT........................................................ 8
Jordan Business Environment Industry SWOT ...................... 9
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings ....................................................10
Table: Middle East And Africa Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings ................................................................................................. 10
Limits To Potential Returns ................................................. 11
Risks To Realisation Of Returns .......................................... 11
Market Summary ............12
Regulatory Regime.........13
Intellectual Property Developments..................................... 14
Counterfeit Pharmaceuticals ............................................... 15
Pricing And Reimbursement Issues...................................... 16
International Collaboration................................................. 17
Industry Developments...........................................18
Epidemiology....................................................................... 18
Healthcare Sector ................................................................ 18
Medical Tourism.................................................................. 20
Domestic Pharmaceuticals Sector ....................................... 20
Recent Domestic Company Activities................................... 22
Foreign Companies.............................................................. 23
Retail Pharmacy Sector ....................................................... 23
Research And Development Sector ...................................... 24
Clinical Trials...................................................................... 25
Medical Devices................................................................... 25
Recent Medical Devices Market Developments ................... 26
Table: Jordan Medical Device Market ................................ 27
Industry Forecast Scenario ...........................................28
Overall Market Forecasts .................................................... 28
Table: Jordan - Drug Market Expenditure Indicators, 2004-2012 (JODmn unless otherwise indicated) ............................................................ 29
Key Growth Factors – Industry............................................ 30
Table: Jordan – Healthcare Expenditure Indicators, 2004-2012 (JODmn unless otherwise indicated) .............................................................. 30
Macroeconomic Forecast .....................................................31
Growth Slowdown And Increasing Fiscal Prudence............ 31
Table: Jordan – Economic Activity...................................... 33
Prescription Market Forecast.............................................. 34
Table: Jordan – Prescription Market Indicators, 2004-2012 (JODmn unless otherwise stated) ......................................................................... 35
OTC Market Forecast.......................................................... 36
Table: Jordan – OTC Market Indicators, 2004-2012 (JODn unless otherwise stated) ........................................................................................ 37
Patented Drugs Market Forecast......................................... 38
Table: Jordan – Patented Drugs Market Indicators, 2004-2012 (JODn unless otherwise indicated).................................................................. 38
Generics Market Forecast ................................................... 39
Table: Jordan – Generics Market Indicators, 2004-2012 (JODn unless otherwise indicated) ............................................................................ 39
Import/Export Forecasts ...................................................... 40
Table: Jordan – Pharmaceutical Trade Indicators, 2004-2012 (US$mn)............................................................................................................ 41
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts........................................ 42
Table: Other Healthcare Indicators, 2004-2012.................. 43
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecasts ............................................. 43
Competitive Landscape............................................44
Table: Top Six Drugmakers In Jordan, H107 ...................... 44
Company Profiles...........45
Multinational Companies........................................................ 45
Novartis ............................................................................... 45
Sanofi-Aventis...................................................................... 46
Pfizer ................................................................................... 47
GlaxoSmithKline.................................................................. 48
Merck & Co ......................................................................... 49
Indigenous Manufacturers ...................................................... 50
United Pharmaceutical Manufacturers................................ 50
Arab Pharmaceutical Manufacturers (APM) ....................... 51
Dar Al Dawa (DAD) ............................................................ 53
Hikma Pharmaceuticals....................................................... 56
Jordanian Pharmaceutical Manufacturing (JPM) ............... 60
Country Snapshot: Jordan Demographic Data ................................................62
Section 1: Population........................................................... 62
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030........................ 62
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ....................... 63
Section 2: Education And Healthcare.................................. 63
Table: Education, 2002-2005 .............................................. 63
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030........................................ 63
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power .................. 64
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 .......................... 64
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 . 64
BMI Forecast Modelling ............................................65
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts ... 65
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology 65
Ratings Overview................................................................. 66
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators ... 66
Weighting............................................................................. 67
Table: Weighting Of Components ........................................ 67
Sources ................................................................................... 67