Taiwan Oil and Gas Report Q4 2008
http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/Summary-Market-Report/taiwan-oil-and-gas-report-q4-2008-51900.asp
- Market - Energy and Utilities
- Published Date - 17/10/2008
- Report Type - Market Report
- Country - Taiwan
- Number of Pages - 84
Report Summary
The latest Taiwan Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 4.28% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2012, while making no meaningful contribution to supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.40mn b/d in 2001 reached 25.68mn b/d in 2007. It should average 26.32mn b/d in 2008 and then rise to around 28.99mn b/d by 2012. In terms of natural gas, the region in 2007 consumed 409bcm, with demand of 565bcm targeted for 2012, representing the strongest growth globally (34.40% between 2007 and 2012). Production of 336bcm in 2007 should reach 471bcm in 2012, but implies net imports rising from 85bcm per annum in 2007 to 94bcm in 2012. This is in spite of many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Taiwan’s share of gas consumption in 2007 was 2.80%, while its share of production was minimal. By 2012, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 2.51%.
In Q208, we estimate that the OPEC basket price averaged just under US$115 per barrel – up around 24% from the Q108 level. The OPEC basket price had exceeded US$127 on the 22nd of May, slipping back towards US$121/bbl later in the month. In June, we assumed an average of around US$120, to deliver our quarterly estimate of US$114.98/bbl. The estimated Q208 average prices for the main marker blends are now US$118.63 for Brent, US$119.61 for WTI and US$115.89/bbl for Russian Urals (Mediterranean delivery). Our projections for 2008 as a whole have been revised upwards from the last quarterly report.
We are now assuming an OPEC basket price average of US$106 per barrel for 2008, compared with the US$81 estimate provided by our last quarterly report. Based on recent price differentials, this implies Brent at US$109.71, WTI averaging US$110.64/bbl, and Urals at US$106.88/bbl.
Taiwanese real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is forecast by BMI at 4.1% for 2008, down from 5.7% in 2007. We are assuming 4.5% growth in 2009, 4.3% in 2010/11, followed by 4.1% in 2012. Stateowned Chinese Petroleum Corporation (CPC) is tasked with securing oil and gas supply, but has no significant domestic volumes to contribute. Oil consumption is forecast to increase by 2% per annum to 2012, implying demand of 1.24mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. Gas usage is expected to rise from the 2007 figure of 11.8bcm to 14.2bcm by 2012, supplied largely by LNG imports.
Between 2007 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Taiwan’s oil consumption from 1.12mn b/d to 1.40mn b/d (+24.3%), with the country’s refining capacity rising from 1.20mn b/d to 1.65mn b/d. Gas demand is expected to rise from around 12bcm in 2007 to a possible 17bcm by 2017/2018 (+41%), met largely by LNG imports. Details of the new BMI 10-year forecasts can be found in the Appendix of this report, which provides global, regional and country-specific projections.
Taiwan still ranks 14th and last in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, thanks to a virtual absence of hydrocarbon resources. The score reflects the total control of the government over upstream oil activities and a healthy country risk profile, the latter offsetting partly the lack of reserves and output growth potential. The country also ranks last in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, although its score is somewhat closer to other regional players such as Malaysia. The poor showing reflects its high level of state involvement, relatively high retail site intensity, and modest oil and gas demand growth outlook.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary .........7
SWOT Analysis.................9
Taiwan Political SWOT ......................................................... 9
Taiwan Economic SWOT ....................................................... 9
Taiwan Business Environment SWOT.................................. 10
Taiwan Energy Market Overview ..............................................................11
Global Oil Market Overview .................................................13
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) ............................ 15
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)................................ 16
Oil Price Outlook ............17
OPEC Intransigence ................................................................. 17
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2007/08............................ 19
Revised Forecasts ..................................................................... 19
Table: Oil Price Forecasts................................................... 20
Regional Energy Market Overview .............................................................21
Oil Supply And Demand............................................................ 21
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) .................... 22
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d) ....................... 23
Oil: Downstream ...................................................................... 24
Table: Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)............. 24
Gas Supply And Demand .......................................................... 25
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) ....................... 25
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm) .......................... 26
Liquefied Natural Gas............................................................... 27
Table: Asia Pacific LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)............... 27
Business Environment Ranking.........................................................28
Asia Pacific Region................................................................... 28
Composite Scores................................................................. 28
Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating............... 29
Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating .......... 30
Upstream Scores.................................................................. 30
Downstream Scores ............................................................. 31
Taiwan Upstream Rating – Overview.................................. 31
Taiwan Upstream Rating – Potential Returns...................... 31
Taiwan Upstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns ........ 31
Taiwan Downstream Rating – Overview.............................. 32
Taiwan Downstream Rating – Potential Returns ................. 32
Taiwan Downstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns.... 32
Business Environment .................................................33
Legal Framework...................................................................... 33
Infrastructure............................................................................ 34
Labour Force............................................................................ 35
Foreign Investment Policy ........................................................ 36
Tax Regime............................................................................... 37
Industry Forecast Scenario .................................................39
Oil and Gas Reserves................................................................ 39
Oil Supply and Demand............................................................ 39
Gas Supply and Demand........................................................... 39
LNG.......................................................................................... 39
Refining and Oil Products Trade .............................................. 40
Revenues/Import Costs.............................................................. 40
Table: Taiwan Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts ... 41
Other Energy ....................................................................... 42
Table: Taiwan Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts .............................................................................................................................. 43
Key Risks to Forecast Scenario................................................. 43
Long-term Energy Outlook ....................................................... 44
Macroeconomic Outlook .................................................................45
Table: Taiwan - Economic Activity...................................... 46
Regional Case Study.................................................47
Company Profile - COSL..................................................... 47
COSL RIG FLEET ............................................................... 52
Competitive Landscape..................................................53
Executive Summary................................................................... 53
Table: Key Players Taiwan Oil & Gas Sector ..................... 54
Overview/State Role.................................................................. 54
Table: Key Upstream Player................................................ 54
Table: Key Downstream Players ......................................... 55
Company Monitor...........56
Chinese Petroleum Corporation (CPC) .................................... 56
Formosa Plastics Corporation.................................................. 61
NPC – Summary .................................................................. 63
Tung Ting Gas – Summary .................................................. 63
Shell – Summary .................................................................. 63
ExxonMobil – Summary....................................................... 63
Glossary of Terms..........64
Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology .......................................65
Introduction .............................................................................. 65
Ratings Overview...................................................................... 65
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure ....................................................................................................................... 66
Indicators.................................................................................. 66
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology................................................................................................. 67
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology ............................................................................................ 68
Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-term forecasts ....................................................70
Global Oil Demand................................................................... 70
Global Oil Demand (000b/d) ............................................... 70
Global Oil Production (000b/d)........................................... 71
Global Oil Supply ..................................................................... 71
Global Gas Demand ................................................................. 72
Global Gas Demand (bcm) .................................................. 72
Global Gas Supply.................................................................... 72
Global Gas Production (bcm).............................................. 73
Regional Oil Demand ............................................................... 73
Asia Pacific Oil Consumption (000b/d) ............................... 74
Regional Oil Supply.................................................................. 74
Asia Pacific Oil Production (000b/d)................................... 75
Regional Refining Capacity ...................................................... 75
Asia Pacific Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)........................ 76
Regional Gas Demand .............................................................. 76
Gas Supply And Demand .......................................................... 77
Asia Pacific Gas Consumption (bcm) .................................. 77
Regional Gas Supply................................................................. 77
Asia Pacific Gas Production (bcm)...................................... 78
Taiwan Country Overview ........................................................ 78
Taiwan Oil & Gas – Long-term Forecasts........................... 79
Taiwan Other Energy – Long-term Forecasts...................... 80
Methodology & Risks To Forecasts .......................................... 80
BMI Forecast Modelling ..................................................81
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ............................... 81
Energy Industry ........................................................................ 82
Cross checks ............................................................................. 82
Sources ..................................................................................... 83