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Thailand Defence and Security Report Q3 2008

http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/Summary-Market-Report/thailand-defence-and-security-report-q3-2008-51386.asp

Report Summary

The major security threat facing Thailand is internal, arising from escalating sectarian strife in the country’s extreme south. Although some foreign observers have sought to portray threats to the country’s security as part of the wider, global terrorist movement, trouble in Thailand has its roots in cultural and territorial claims. Of increasing worry is the growth in assassinations targeted directly at schoolteachers, as the most visible and accessible government employees in the south of the country. Preoccupation with political bickering in Bangkok has taken focus away from finding a solution to the problem.

With the authoritarian Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej also taking the defence portfolio on behalf of the government, the hopes of creative solutions to the southern unrest are remote. The weak local economy and accompanying high unemployment rates are some of the main issues fuelling discontent in the south. The Thai national legislature has passed an internal security act to give the army enhanced powers to deal with national security threats. There are now concerns that the military, as well as the new government, could abuse the wide-ranging legislation. The Thai Army is one of the largest in Southeast Asia but is largely untested in battle. It has failed to restore order in the South and the upper ranks are increasingly pre-occupied with political posturing and positioning against an increasingly fractious backdrop in Bangkok. Rumours of plots another coup that would overthrow Prime Minister Samak’s government are rife but unconfirmed.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ........5
SWOT Analysis .6
Thailand Security SWOT . 6
Thailand Defence Industry SWOT .. 7
Thailand Economic SWOT......... 8
Thailand Political SWOT 8
Thailand Business Environment SWOT ........... 9
Political Overview .........10
Security Risk Analysis ........12
BMI’s Security Ratings ...... 12
Table: Asia Pacific Security Ratings.............. 12
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 13
Composite .... 13
Regional rank ............... 13
Trend ...... 13
Danger rating ............... 13
Regional Security: South East Asia Q308........... 13
Thailand Terrorism Risk .... 15
Thailand Physical Safety Risk.. 15
Thailand Conflict Risk .. 15
Security Overview ..........16
Internal Security Situation ....... 16
Recent Developments .... 17
Southern Thai Muslim Insurgency 17
BRN-K .... 18
GMIP/PULO 18
Table: Thai Muslim Insurgents 19
External Security Situation ...... 19
Drugs Trade . 20
Defence Industry .21
Armed Forces ............... 21
Table: Thailand Regional Armed Forces....... 22
International Deployments....... 23
Weapons of Mass Destruction.. 23
Market Overview and Structure .... 24
Industry Trends & Developments .25
Competitive Landscape . 25
Table: Thailand Military Key Players............ 26
Arms Trade Overview ... 26
Procurement Trends And Developments........ 27
Industry Forecast Scenario ................29
Army Enlargements ....... 29
Government Expenditure On Defence Industry ... 30
Table: Thailand Defence Sector Historical Data & Forecasts .............. 31
Macroeconomic Forecast ........32
Table: Thailand - Economic Activity ............. 34
Company Profiles .35
Loxley ..... 35
Asian Marine Services .. 36
Thai-Italian Interarms Company .. 37
Minebea .. 38
BMI Forecast Modelling .........39
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .... 39
Defence Industry ........... 39
Sources ........ 40