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UK Personal Lending 2007 - Review Report

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Report Summary

Introduction

Following a muted performance in 2005, the consumer credit market delivered a worse performance in 2006. Indeed, after more than a decade of strong growth, the consumer credit market has now slowed. Moreover, to add to their woes, lenders are facing a number of other challenges. So, what lies ahead for unsecured lenders?

Scope

Covers unsecured personal loans, credit cards, overdrafts, motor finance and retail finance in the UK. Focus is on unsecured personal loans Provides forecasts under 3 different scenarios for the consumer credit market as a whole as well as for individual product lines Gives market share figures as at H1 2006 for leading personal loan providers and examines the latest competitor developments shaping the market Focuses on a number of hot issues in the unsecured lending market, such as student lending, customer acquisition, and pricing

Highlights

Constrained by various factors such as a weaker labor market, increasing consumer debts and low consumer confidence, gross lending amounted to £207.8 billion at the end of December 2006, representing a contraction of 4.5 per cent on the 2005 level (£217.5 billion). Overdrafts are an important income stream for banks, especially as current accounts are not particularly profitable in themselves. However, overdrafts are receiving increased regulatory. While regulation is working towards serving the consumer better, it is likely that the end result will see banks lose a part of this income stream. Going forward, the challenges being faced by unsecured personal lenders suggest that many will be willing to place more emphasis on increasing their profitability, even if that means sacrificing volume. Indeed, the lending environment is only going to get tougher and the issue of high levels of personal indebtedness is not going to disappear.

Reasons to Purchase

Gain access to the latest market sizing and forecasting data for the consumer credit market to place your performance in context to the market's Gain insight into how your competitors are responding to the various issues facing the unsecured lending sector Receive updated market share data to tell you how your company compares to your closest rivals

Table of Contents

Overview 1
Catalyst 1
Summary 1
Table of Contents 2
Table of figures 3
Table of tables 4
Introduction 5
What is this report about? 5
Who is the target reader? 5
How to use this report 5
The UK Consumer Credit Market in 2006 and its Future Outlook 7
The consumer credit market delivered a poor performance in 2006 7
Advances dropped once again, though balances grew by a small degree 7
A number of factors can be attributed to the consumer credit market's poor performance 8
Despite a well performing UK economy in 2006, the consumer credit market did not follow suit 8
Successive base rate rises had a slowing effect on borrowing over 2006 9
Despite full employment, unemployment increased slightly over 2006, contributing to the consumer credit market's contraction 10
Though the housing market outperformed expectations in 2006, the consumer credit market still faltered 10
Further analysis highlighted that most individual product lines performed badly over 2006 11
In terms of balances outstanding, most products contracted except for retail finance and personal loans 11
Fluctuations in the share of the total consumer credit market show personal loans to have gained significantly 13
In terms of gross advances, all consumer credit products contracted except for overdrafts 14
Fluctuations in performance saw credit cards and overdrafts gain more share of the total consumer credit market 16
Meanwhile, point of sale finance continued to struggle 18
Motor finance had another poor year in 2006 18
Retail finance also had another poor year in 2006 23
What's next for the consumer credit market? 26
Datamonitor's forecasting model assesses the relationship of macroeconomic factors with respect to consumer credit products 26
Under the neutral view, new lending in the consumer credit market falls in 2007 and picks up thereafter 26
The consumer credit market will reach £229.4 billion in 2011 28
In terms of individual product lines, virtually all products will suffer in 2007 but will pick up thereafter 28
Under a pessimistic view of the economy, the consumer credit market will contract significantly in 2007 before picking up again in 2008 30
The consumer credit market will dip to a low of £199.8 billion in 2007 under a pessimistic scenario 31
In terms of individual product lines, retail and motor finance both continue their decline, with overdrafts performing best of all 31
Under an optimistic view of the economy, the consumer credit market will begin prospering again 33
The consumer credit market will expand at an annual average rate of 3.0 per cent to reach £238.1 billion in 2011 34
In terms of individual product lines, retail finance will be the only underperforming product 34
An Overview of the Overdrafts Market in the UK 36
Overdrafts are a key part of banks' current account packages 36
Overdrafts have grown strongly over the last five years 36
Overdrafts are an important income stream for banks 37
In addition, they contribute to those who switch bank accounts 37
For example, Alliance & Leicester continues to up the ante to win current account customers through its introductory offers on overdraft fees 38
Moreover, overdrafts are forecast to continue strong growth 39
But the overdrafts market is static compared to others 40
There are four main pricing models for overdrafts 40
It is surprising that individual risk-based pricing for overdrafts is not used to a greater degree 42
Prices on overdrafts do not tend to change very often 42
Such a condition can be attributed to complex nature of current accounts, but consumer apathy to switching current accounts is also to blame 44
There has been increasing scrutiny surrounding overdrafts, which will most likely have a significant effect on banks and consumers 44
First came the OFT investigation on credit card default fees 44
Now the OFT is to investigate the overdrafts market 44
A number of banks have been removing overdraft "buffers" and raising interest rates 45
Moreover, the investigation could have large consequences for the current account industry and consumers 45
Northern Ireland has also seen its current account and overdrafts market challenged 46
The Competition Commission found a number of significant issues with overdrafts 47
It advises that a number of remedies be applied to redress the market 47
The investigation is likely to conclude in a loss of income for banks in Northern Ireland 48
In addition, there is concern that too many consumers are using overdrafts for long-term borrowing instead of other cheaper lending products 48
Student Lending in the UK: Assessing Risk in an Environment of Rising Consumer Debt 49
Students are an important customer segment for banks 49
Students as a customer segment: banking on the future via cross-selling 49
Such a strategy is understandable given the increasing number of students in the UK 49
Lending is a large part of the student portfolio 50
Many banks offer a range of products, though the acquisition focus is on the current account 50
But lending is the more profitable product to sell 51
However, students are getting into greater and greater debt 52
The cost of attending university is becoming more expensive 52
As such, student debt has increased considerably over time 53
The majority of debt is in the form of Government loans, though overdrafts and credit cards are highly important too 53
Moreover, the average student beginning their course in 2006 will be at least £15,000 in debt by the time they finish 54
Given the more difficult economic environment and the increasing number of bankruptcies and IVAs, is student lending worth the risk? 55
Consumers are experiencing a more difficult economic time now 55
Such a situation is of worry to lenders who are already dealing with significant bad debt 55
While graduates are likely to earn more than non-graduates, they are not immune to economic difficulties 57
Because of significant student debt, there are suggestions that those under 30 are not big spenders on unsecured lending products 57
Moreover, even if students are better customers in the long-run, will they be loyal to their first current account provider? 58
Students continue to be viewed as a good investment, but banks are taking a number of precautions with student lending 59
In general, lenders are sharing more data in order to reduce bad debt 59
Lenders are pushing for Student Loans Company data to be shared 59
The Student Loans Company has become involved 60
The DTI is now holding a consultation over such "hidden data" 60
More importantly, lenders must be sure to lend responsibly 61
Customer Acquisition Strategies in the UK Personal Lending Market 62
The typical personal loan customer has a number of traits 62
Personal loan holding differs by age group and income band 62
Age group segmentation highlights that customers in the 25 to 34 age bracket are those most likely to hold a personal loan 62
Income band segmentation highlights that low income earners are the least likely to have a personal loan 63
The typical personal loan customer is likely to take out a loan of between £5,000 and £9,999 64
Customers aged between 18 and 24 years old tend to apply for smaller ticket loans 64
Unsurprisingly, higher income groups have a higher tendency to borrow greater amounts 65
The overwhelming majority of personal loan customers have only one personal loan 66
There is no clear trend in terms of age segmentation 67
The higher the household income, the higher the probability of the personal loan customer holding more than one loan 68
The typical length of a personal loan is five years 68
It is worth highlighting that many personal loan customers do not see their loan commitment to the end 69
Unsecured personal loans are used for a vast array of purposes 70
Car purchase, home improvements and debt consolidation remain the major reasons given by customers for taking out a personal loan 70
Car purchase remains the most mentioned purpose of an unsecured personal loan 71
Home improvements and debt consolidation came second and third respectively in terms of most mentioned usage 71
Analysis by age group and income band highlights a few interesting trends in terms of usage 71
A number of lenders do design their marketing material based on the specific uses of a personal loan 73
Lloyds TSB went one step further by producing a used car buyers' guide to attract unsecured personal loan customers 74
A number of factors drive customers when choosing a particular lender 75
While the majority of customers do not shop around, a significant proportion do so before purchasing a personal loan 75
Analysis by age group highlights that those aged above 65 are the least likely to research the unsecured personal loan market 76
The wealthier customers are, the more likely they are to shop around 77
Given that a significant number of customers do shop around, it is crucial for lenders to understand the reasons why customers choose a particular lender 78
Brand awareness provides a competitive advantage in the unsecured personal loan market 81
Direct channels, other than face-to-face, are increasingly being used by customers 83
Face-to-face distribution remains the channel of choice for a significant number of customers 83
Most personal loan providers with a branch presence follow a multi-channel strategy 84
Further analysis of the data highlights that young customers and the lower income households are more likely to visit the lender 85
Young customers and the elderly are more likely to visit a branch 85
Lower income households have a higher tendency to visit a lender to take out a personal loan 85
Competitive Dynamics in the UK Personal Loan Market 87
2005 saw a subdued performance from many lenders 87
Most lenders saw a rise in balances outstanding over 2005 87
Meanwhile, the five largest banking groups strengthened their market share over 2005 in terms of gross advances 90
Moreover, 2006 was another difficult year for personal lending 92
Personal loans also experienced a tough year 92
Indeed, most lenders experienced a difficult H1 2006 92
Not all players grew their balances over the half year 92
Moreover, many lenders saw a drop in new lending volumes 95
Unsurprisingly, lenders are feeling a number of competitive pressures 95
Competition is as tough as ever 95
The top competitors are spending more on advertising in terms of share 96
Lenders are having to look at other ways to compete successfully 98
Differentiation is key 98
But ultimately, the structure of pricing will have to change in the long-run 99
Moreover, bad debt continues to be a challenge when looking to beat the competition 99
Bad debt remains an issue for lenders 99
Such a situation has impacted upon lenders' competitive strategies and results 101
Pricing Strategies in the UK Personal Loan Market 2007 102
Price remains the acquisition weapon of choice in the UK unsecured personal loan sector 102
Price is a key product differentiator for both lenders and customers 102
Consequently, the average price of an unsecured loan has fallen considerably 102
Indeed, intense price competition in the UK unsecured personal loan market has led to a significant fall in average prices 103
However, lenders are adjusting their pricing models to a difficult lending environment 106
Rising personal debt has dealt a big blow to lenders' acquisition and profitability model 106
Consumers are increasingly resorting to debt solutions as they fail to keep up with repayments 107
Lenders' profitability has been affected significantly, as many consumers have started to default on repayments 109
It is therefore hardly surprising that many unsecured providers are adapting their acquisition and pricing model to reflect changes in the lending environment 109
Lenders' pricing models are changing as lenders are adapting their acquisition models 110
Will we see more lenders focusing on profitability rather than just increasing market share? 113
The great majority of unsecured loan providers practice a risk-based pricing model 113
Personal pricing has emerged in the last year or so 114
Furthermore, there are other examples where lenders are designing their pricing strategies to increase profitability 116
Going forward, pricing will remain aggressive but profitability will be equally as important, if not more so 117
Trends in Affinity Partnerships and Co-branding in the UK Personal Lending Market 119
Affinity and co-branding are two types of partnership in the personal lending market 119
While sharing similarities, affinity marketing and co-branding are separate business models 119
Affinity partnerships took off during the 1990s 120
There are a number of benefits for lenders who enter affinity partnerships 120
There are a significant number of large and small affinity partnerships in the UK 120
Co-branding also developed rapidly during the 1990s 121
Issuers have a range of reasons to get involved in the co-branding credit card market 121
There are a large number of co-branded credit cards available in the UK 122
Yet each is experiencing diverging trends 122
Affinity partnerships are stagnating at best 122
Affinity credit cards are losing ground to co-branded cards 122
Moreover, affinity personal loans have been in decline for a number of years now 123
Indeed, affinity partnerships are not as competitive as other schemes because of their inherent disadvantages 124
While co-branded cards continue to expand 124
Co-branding is expanding because it allows issuers to differentiate their offering in a saturated market 124
Such trends are likely to continue in the short to medium term 125
Affinity credit cards are likely to continue to stagnate 125
Moreover, the affinity personal loan model is in danger 125
For example, HBOS is gradually streamlining its affinity program 125
MBNA is also looking to wind down its dependence upon affinity partnerships 125
Meanwhile, co-branded credit cards are likely to increase in popularity 126
Yet issuers and merchants must think critically about whether or not this is the right opportunity for them 126
Personal Lending: Successful Entry Strategies in Western Europe 127
Lenders are increasingly coming up against a saturated UK consumer credit market 127
The UK consumer credit market is contracting 127
The UK consumer credit market is also highly competitive 127
Unsurprisingly, lenders' margins are falling in the saturated consumer credit market 128
Indeed, the UK consumer credit market is the most mature of all of Western Europe 128
Consumer credit plays a more important role in the UK economy than it does in any other Western European market 128
Moreover, in terms of new lending, the UK has performed poorly in comparison to the majority of the Western European markets 129
Consequently, UK lenders should look into higher growth European markets to expand 130
A number of international players have further expanded their operations in Western Europe 130
In particular, there remain opportunities in the Spanish consumer credit market 131
The Spanish consumer credit market continues to expand 131
A number of foreign lenders have become involved 132
The market continues to hold potential 132
As an example, Barclaycard is taking advantage of this growing market 132
Barclaycard is growing successfully in Spain 132
Barclaycard entered the Spanish market directly 134
Barclaycard's product range is designed to appeal to a range of customer segments 134
Barclaycard is likely to expand further in Spain by offering a wider range of products 135
In addition, the Turkish consumer credit market remains attractive to foreign acquisition 135
Turkey is the fastest growing consumer credit market in Western Europe 135
A number of reasons can explain Turkey's phenomenal growth 136
A number of international players have developed a significant presence in the market 136
As an example, GE Money now has a 25.5 per cent stake in Garanti Bank 137
Garanti Bank is a major player in the Turkish consumer credit market 137
By making such an acquisition, GE Money now has claim to a growing business in this market 138
But there are inherent risks in entering such a market 138
APPENDIX 139
Supplementary data 139
The UK Consumer Credit Market in 2006 and its Future Outlook 139
An Overview of the Overdrafts Market in the UK 140
Student Lending in the UK: Assessing Risk in an Environment of Rising Consumer Debt 141
Customer Acquisition Strategies in the UK Personal Lending Market 143
Competitive Dynamics in the UK Personal Loan Market 146
Pricing Strategies in the UK Personal Loan Market 2007 148
Trends in Affinity Partnerships and Co-branding in the UK Personal Lending Market 153
Personal Lending: Successful Entry Strategies in Western Europe 154
Definitions 156
General definitions 156
Affinity partnership 156
APR 156
Bank of England base rate 157
Balances outstanding 157
CAGR 157
CCJ 157
Co-branded card 157
Consumer credit 157
Current account 157
Gross advances 157
IVAs (Individual Voluntary Arrangements) 157
OFT 158
Overdraft 158
Student 158
Definitions of point of sale motor and retail finance products 158
Motor finance products available at the point of sale 159
Retail finance products available at the point of sale 160
Methodology 161
Forecasting methodology 162
Choice of economic variables 162
Model outputs 162
Bespoke scenario based forecasting 162
Further reading 163
European consumer credit reports 163
UK consumer credit reports 163
Relevant links 163
Ask the analyst 165
Datamonitor consulting 165
Disclaimer 165
List of Tables
Table 1: Balances outstanding and gross advances in the consumer credit market, 2002-2006 8
Table 2: Consumer credit balances outstanding by product, 2002-2006 12
Table 3: Market share of consumer credit balances outstanding by product line, 2002-2006 14
Table 4: Consumer credit gross advances split by product, 2002-2006 15
Table 5: Market share of gross advances in the consumer credit market by product line, 2002-2006 17
Table 6: New and used car POS motor finance balances outstanding, 2002-2006 19
Table 7: New and used car POS motor finance gross advances, 2002-2006 21
Table 8: New car finance gross advances by product line, 2002-2006 22
Table 9: Used car finance gross advances by product line, 2002-2006 22
Table 10: Retail finance balances outstanding by product line, 2002-2006 24
Table 11: Retail finance gross advances by product line, 2002-2006 25
Table 12: Forecast performance of the consumer credit market drivers under the neutral scenario, 2005-2011f 27
Table 13: Consumer credit forecasts under a neutral view of the economy, 2006-2011f 29
Table 14: Forecast performance of the consumer credit market drivers under the pessimistic scenario, 2005-2011f 30
Table 15: Consumer credit forecasts under a pessimistic view of the economy, 2006-2011f 32
Table 16: Forecast performance of the consumer credit market drivers under the optimistic scenario, 2005-2011f 33
Table 17: Consumer credit forecasts under an optimistic view of the economy, 2006-2011f 35
Table 18: The main banks compete for students by offering interest-free overdrafts, November 2006 51
Table 19: Value of personal loan when originally taken out, split by age group, January to June 2006 65
Table 20: Value of personal loan when originally taken out, split by income band, January to June 2006 66
Table 21: How many personal loans do you currently have?, by age group, January to June 2006 67
Table 22: How many personal loans do you currently have?, by income band, January to June 2006 68
Table 23: Usage of an unsecured personal loan, January to June 2006 70
Table 24: Usage of an unsecured personal loan, split by age group, January to June 2006 72
Table 25: Usage of an unsecured personal loan, split by income band, January to June 2006 73
Table 26: How did you actually arrange this loan?, split by age group, January to June 2006 85
Table 27: How did you actually arrange this loan?, split by income band, January to June 2006 86
Table 28: Unsecured personal loan balances outstanding and market share by group, 2004-2005 89
Table 29: Unsecured personal loan gross advances and market share by group, 2004-2005 91
Table 30: Unsecured personal loan balances outstanding and market share by group, H2 2005-H1 2006 94
Table 31: Advertising personal loan spend by the leading competitors, 2005-2006 97
Table 32: Typical interest rates offered by a sample of unsecured personal loan providers, Dec 2005 and March 2007 (Table 1 of 2) 111
Table 33: Typical interest rates offered by a sample of unsecured personal loan providers, Dec 2005 and March 2007 (Table 2 of 2) 112
Table 34: Unsecured personal loan providers' pricing strategies, March 2007 114
Table 35: Typical APR charged by a sample of lenders at branches and online, March 2007 116
Table 36: Typical APR for online loans from a sample of parent companies and their direct subsidiaries, March 2007 117
Table 37: Credit cards in issue in the UK by type, 2001-2005 123
Table 38: 12 month year-on-year change in UK house prices, January 2002-December 2006 139
Table 39: Overdrafts gross advances and balances outstanding, 1997-2006 140
Table 40: Datamonitor's overdrafts forecasts, 2006-2011f 140
Table 41: Banks' overdraft interest rates, November 2002-November 2006 141
Table 42: The number of students in the UK, 2000-2005 141
Table 43: Average student debt upon finishing a three-year university course in the UK, 2000-2006 142
Table 44: Percentage of student in debt by product, 2005 142
Table 45: Number of bankruptcies and IVAs, Q3 2005-Q3 2006 143
Table 46: How many other companies did you obtain information from before choosing your current personal loan provider?, split by age group, January to June 2006 143
Table 47: How many other companies did you obtain information from before choosing your current personal loan provider?, split by income band, January to June 2006 144
Table 48: Can you tell me why you chose this institution for this loan?, January to June 2006 145
Table 49: Half-year growth and market share in terms of balances outstanding by group, H2 2005-H1 2006 146
Table 50: Debt write-offs for unsecured lending (excluding credit cards), March 2002-December 2006 147
Table 51: End month weighted average interest rate on a £10,000 and a £3,500 unsecured personal loan and the base rate, Jan 2001 to March 2007 (Table 1 of 3) 148
Table 52: End month weighted average interest rate on a £10,000 and a £3,500 unsecured personal loan and the base rate, Jan 2001 to March 2007 (Table 2 of 3) 149
Table 53: End month weighted average interest rate on a £10,000 and a £3,500 unsecured personal loan and the base rate, Jan 2001 to March 2007 (Table 3 of 3) 150
Table 54: The differential between the base rate and the average interest rate of a £10,000 and £3,500 unsecured loan, January 2001 to March 2007 (Table 1 of 3) 150
Table 55: The differential between the base rate and the average interest rate of a £10,000 and £3,500 unsecured loan, January 2001 to March 2007 (Table 2 of 3) 151
Table 56: The differential between the base rate and the average interest rate of a £10,000 and £3,500 unsecured loan, January 2001 to March 2007 (Table 3 of 3) 152
Table 57: Number of providers split by various typical interest rate brackets, December 2005 and 2006, March 2007 153
Table 58: Number of cards and value of transactions for affinity and co-branded credit cards, 2001-2005 153
Table 59: Western European markets' consumer credit balances outstanding as a proportion of their GDP, 2005 154
Table 60: Growth in consumer credit gross advances in Western European countries, 2001-2005 155
Table 61: Consumer credit gross advances in Spain, 2001-2005 155
Table 62: Number of credit cards in Spain in issue by competitor, 2005 156
Table 63: Consumer credit gross advances in Turkey, 2001-2005 156
List of Figures
Figure 1: Advances dropped by 4.5 per cent in 2006, though balances grew by a small amount, 2002-2006 7
Figure 2: Consumer confidence continued to fall through 2006, May 2004 -December 2006 9
Figure 3: The housing market performed significantly above expectations in 2006, January 2002-December 2006 11
Figure 4: Unsecured personal loans experienced the strongest growth over the last five years, 2002-2006 12
Figure 5: Unsecured personal loans have gained an extra share of 6.8 per cent in the last five years while credit cards, motor and retail finance have all lost share, 2002-2006 13
Figure 6: Except for overdrafts, new lending on all consumer credit products suffered from a poor performance in 2006, 2002-2006 15
Figure 7: Credit cards and overdrafts have gained share while unsecured personal loans have lost share, 2002-2006 17
Figure 8: The share of used car finance within the motor finance market declined slightly in 2006, 2002-2006 19
Figure 9: Gross lending in both the new and used car finance markets declined in 2006, 2002-2006 20
Figure 10: Reversing the trend somewhat, two of three retail finance product lines saw growth in balances outstanding over 2006, 2002-2006 23
Figure 11: Gross advances for all product lines within retail finance have followed a downward trend since 2004, 2002-2006 25
Figure 12: The consumer credit market will steadily increase and reach £229.4 billion in 2011f, 2006-2011f 28
Figure 13: Under the pessimistic scenario, the consumer credit market will drop to a low of £199.8 billion in gross advances in 2007, 2006-2011f 31
Figure 14: Under an optimistic view of the economy, the consumer credit market will grow very strongly over the next five years, 2006-2011f 34
Figure 15: Overdrafts advances and balances have grown strongly, particularly over the last five years, 1997-2006 37
Figure 16: Alliance & Leicester's introductory offer on overdrafts is currently the most competitive in the market, November 2006 39
Figure 17: Datamonitor forecasts that overdrafts will continue to grow strongly, 2006-2011f 40
Figure 18: Banks use four different overdraft pricing models, November 2006 41
Figure 19: Authorized overdraft interest rates have not changed significantly over a five year period, November 2002-Novermber 2006 43
Figure 20: There are an increasing number of students in the UK, 2000/1-2004/5 50
Figure 21: Banks start by acquiring the student as a current account customer, followed by short and long-term cross-selling aims, 2006 52
Figure 22: Student debt has risen significantly since 2000, 2000-2006 53
Figure 23: The majority of student debt is in the form of Government loans, but overdrafts and credit cards are also important, 2005 54
Figure 24: Debt solutions have continued to become more popular in England and Wales, Q3 2005-Q3 2006 56
Figure 25: Customers between the age of 25 and 44 are most likely to take out a personal loan, January to June 2005 and 2006 63
Figure 26: Customers earning less than £15,499 are the least likely to hold a personal loan, January to June 2005 and 2006 64
Figure 27: Nine per cent of unsecured personal loan holders have more than one personal loan, January to June 2006 67
Figure 28: Five years is the most likely term for a typical personal loan, January to June 2006 69
Figure 29: Barclays and Northern Rock promote the specific uses of unsecured personal loans, 2006 74
Figure 30: Lloyds TSB has produced a used car buyers' guide to aid its acquisition of personal loan customers, 2006 75
Figure 31: Customers in the age bracket 65+ are the least likely to research the unsecured personal loan market before taking out an unsecured personal loan, January to June 2006 77
Figure 32: The wealthier customers are, the more likely they are to shop around, January to June 2006 78
Figure 33: Having an existing relationship remains the major reason for choosing a personal loan provider, January to June 2006 79
Figure 34: Halifax is the most mentioned lender by surveyed customers when asked about providers they would consider taking a new personal loan with, January to June 2006 82
Figure 35: Face-to-face remains the channel of choice for customers, January to June 2006 84
Figure 36: Barclays Bank and Northern Rock were the market's biggest winners over 2005 in terms of balances outstanding, 2004-2005 88
Figure 37: The top five lenders gained share over 2005 in terms of gross advances, 2004-2005 90
Figure 38: The first half of 2006 was tough on a large number of lenders, even in terms of balances outstanding, H2 2005-H1 2006 93
Figure 39: Debt write-offs on unsecured lending (except credit cards) has continued to rise, March 2002-December 2006 100
Figure 40: Interest rates in the unsecured personal loan market are dynamic, January 2001 to March 2007 103
Figure 41: The differential between the base rate and the average interest rate of an unsecured loan has fallen over the years, January 2001 to March 2007 104
Figure 42: The majority of lenders offer a typical interest rate below the seven per cent mark, December 2005 and 2006, March 2007 105
Figure 43: The average UK adult owed £4,522 in unsecured personal debt as at the end of 2006, 2002-2006 107
Figure 44: Both the number of IVAs approved and bankruptcy orders have risen significantly since 2005, 2002 and 2006 108
Figure 45: General characteristics of affinity partnerships and co-branding, 2007 119
Figure 46: Co-branded credit cards continue to expand while affinity credit cards have stagnated recently, 2001-2005 123
Figure 47: The UK is the most mature of Western European consumer credit markets as a proportion of GDP, 2005 129
Figure 48: From 2001 to 2005, new lending in the UK has been slower than most European consumer credit markets, 2001-2005 130
Figure 49: Consumer credit in Spain has witnessed a solid expansion, 2001-2005 131
Figure 50: La Caixa and BBVA dominate the Spanish credit card market, but Barclaycard is now fourth in terms of number of cards in issue, 2005 133
Figure 51: Barclaycard Spain now offers a range of credit cards in order to appeal to different customer segments, October 2006 135
Figure 52: Consumer credit gross advances are rising rapidly in Turkey, 2001-2005 136
Figure 53: Point of sale product aggregations used within this report 159