Vietnam Defence and Security Report Q4 2008
http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/Summary-Market-Report/vietnam-defence-and-security-report-q4-2008-54558.asp
- Market - Defence
- Published Date - 17/11/2008
- Report Type - Market Report
- Country - Vietnam
- Number of Pages - 37
Report Summary
Vietnam’s large – and famously battle-tested – army, strategic location and dynamic economy mean that it has the capacity to be a major regional player in terms of security and (if, for the time being, in low technology areas) defence production. Unlike most of its (near) neighbours, Vietnam does not have to contend with actual or potential internal conflict that stems from ethnic or religious disputes.
There is competition with China (and, to a certain extent, other countries) over resources in the South China Sea. Vietnam is strengthening its defence ties via alliances with traditional allies and other regional South East Asian partners. It has also strengthened military ties with India. The government’s policy is to consolidate all state owned enterprises, and as part of this, it has decreed that all military owned industries will also be managed by the government by the end of 2012.
Part of this vetting and restructuring is creating a more professional armed force in the Vietnam People’s Army. However, despite its formidable fighting history, Vietnam’s defence industry is smaller than Thailand or Singapore’s, and there is acute competition for technology from the more established regional players. That said, Vietnam is in discussions with the US in regard to two way trade on non-lethal defence systems, which will provide long-term export opportunities in small arms and light weapons.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary .........5
Vietnam Security SWOT......................................................... 5
Vietnam Defence Industry SWOT........................................... 6
Vietnam Political SWOT........................................................ 6
Vietnam Economic SWOT...................................................... 7
Vietnam Business Environment SWOT................................... 7
Political Overview.............8
Security Risk Ratings .........................................................10
BMI’s Security Ratings ............................................................. 10
Table: Asia Pacific Security Ratings.................................... 10
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 11
Composite............................................................................ 11
Regional rank...................................................................... 11
Trend................................................................................... 11
Danger rating...................................................................... 11
Regional Security: South East Asia........................................... 11
Inter-State Conflicts............................................................. 13
Internal Conflicts ................................................................. 14
Vietnam’s Security Risk ............................................................ 14
Physical Safety Risk Rating.................................................. 14
Terrorism Risk Rating.......................................................... 15
Conflict Risk Rating............................................................. 15
Security Overview..................................................................... 15
Internal Security Situation ................................................... 15
Table: Actual And Attempted Piracy Attacks, 1996-2006 .... 19
External Security Situation .................................................. 20
Bilateral Relations............................................................... 21
Defence Industry ............23
Armed Forces ...................................................................... 23
Weapons Of Mass Destruction............................................. 25
Market Overview And Structure........................................... 26
Industry Trends And Developments ..................................... 27
Arms Trade Overview.......................................................... 27
Procurement Trends And Developments.............................. 28
Industry Forecast Scenario ......................................................................30
Army And Military ............................................................... 30
Table: Vietnam’s Armed Forces, 2004-2012 (‘000 personnel) ............................................................................................................................ 30
Government Expenditure On Defence Industry.................... 31
Macroeconomic Forecast .................................................... 32
Table: Vietnam – Macroeconomic Activity, 2005-2012 ....... 34
BMI Forecast Modelling......................................................35
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .......................... 35
Defence Industry.................................................................. 35
Sources ..................................................................................... 36