Executive Summary 6

SWOT Analysis .8

Czech Republic Political SWOT 8

Czech Republic Economic SWOT ...... 8

Czech Republic Business Environment SWOT ..... 9

Czech Republic Energy Market Overview .10

Global Oil Market Overview ..13

Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) . 14

Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d) ..... 15

Oil Price Outlook ...16

Waiting For A Correction ... 16

Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2007/2008 ...... 17

Revised Forecasts ...... 17

Table: Oil Price Forecasts ...... 18

Regional Energy Market Overview ...19

Oil Supply And Demand ...... 19

Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) . 20

Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d)..... 21

Oil: Downstream 22

Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) 22

Gas Supply And Demand .... 23

Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) .... 23

Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm) . 24

Liquefied Natural Gas 25

Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) ( 25

Business Environment Ranking .....26

Central/Eastern Europe Region ... 26

Composite Scores .. 26

Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating.... 27

Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Ratin 28

Upstream Scores ... 28

Downstream Scores 29

Czech Republic Upstream Rating – Overview ... 29

Czech Republic Upstream Rating – Potential Returns 29

Czech Republic Upstream Rating – Risks to Potential Ret 29

Czech Republic Downstream Rating – Overview . 30

Czech Republic Downstream Rating – Potential Returns .... 30

Czech Republic Downstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns 30

Business Environment ....31

Legal Framework 31

Infrastructure.. 32

Labour Force.. 33

Foreign Investment Policy .. 34

Tax Regime . 34

Industry Forecast Scenario ....36

Oil and Gas Reserves . 36

Oil Supply and Demand ...... 36
Gas Supply and Demand ..... 36
Refining and Oil Products Trade . 37
Revenues/Import Costs . 37
Czech Republic Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts..... 38
Other Energy .. 39
Czech Republic Other Energy – Historic Data & Forecasts 41
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario .. 41
Long-term Oil & Gas Outlook ..... 41
Macroeconomic Outlook .42
Czech Republic - Economic Activity 44
Regional Case Study .....45
Gazprom In The CIS And Europe .... 45
Main Transit Countries .. 48
Competitive Landscape ...52
Key Players – Czech Oil & Gas Sector ..... 53
Overview/State Role ... 53
Key Upstream Player ..... 54
Key Downstream Players . 54
Company Monitor .55
Unipetrol .. 55
Shell Czech Republic . 57
OMV CR .. 59
Agip Praha.. 61
Moravské Naftové Doly (MND) ... 63
PKN Orlen – Summary .. 65
BP – Summary ...... 65
Cepro – Summary . 65
Slovnaft – Summary 65
Carpathian Resources – Summary ... 65
Gazprom – Summary ..... 66
Glossary of Terms 67
Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology .68
Introduction 68
Ratings Overview 68
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure 69
Indicators . 69
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology 70
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology .. 71
Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-term forecasts ..72
Global Oil Demand 72
Global Oil Demand (000b/d) .. 72
Global Oil Production (000b/d) 73
Global Oil Supply ...... 73
Global Gas Demand .. 74
Global Gas Demand (bcm) ..... 74
Global Gas Supply ..... 74
Global Gas Production (bcm) . 75
Regional Oil Demand 76
CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d) 76
Regional Oil Supply ... 76 CEE Oil Production (000b/d) . 77 Regional Refining Capacity 77 CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) . 78 Regional Gas Demand . 78 CEE Gas Consumption (bcm) . 79 Regional Gas Supply .. 79 CEE Gas Production (bcm) .... 80 Czech Republic Country Overview 80 Czech Republic Oil & Gas – Long-term Forecasts ..... 81 Czech Republic Other Energy – Long-term Forecasts 82 Methodology & Risks To Forecasts ...... 82 BMI Forecast Modelling ...83 How we generate our industry forecasts . 83 Energy Industry 84 Cross checks ... 84 Sources .... 84