CHAPTER 1 ABOUT THIS PROFILE 2
Executive summary 2
Quarterly news update 2
Company introduction 2
Company sales 2
Company financials 2
Key products and competitors 3
Data sourcing 3
Sales data 3
Analyst consensus 3
CHAPTER 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
Key findings 4
Prescription pharmaceutical sales performance, 2001-13 5
Financial performance, 2001-13 6
Forest: PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 7
Strategic insight 8
SWOT analysis 10
Strengths 10
Strong sales and high forecast operating profits to 2011 10
Weaknesses 10
Exposure to generic competition, significantly hampering growth prospects 10
Opportunities 11
Use 'search & development' business model to bolster pipeline and offset declines from currently marketed portfolio 11
Threats 11
Failure of pipeline products to reach the market 11
CHAPTER 3 QUARTERLY NEWS UPDATE 15
Product developments 15
Deals and alliances 16
Product deals 16
Technology deals 17
M&A activity 17
Company announcements 18
Future product milestones 18
CHAPTER 4 COMPANY INTRODUCTION 19
Key findings 19
Background 20
Key corporate developments 20
M&A history 20
Current corporate structure 21
Forest Pharmaceuticals 21
Inwood Laboratories 22
CHAPTER 5 COMPANY SALES 23
Key findings 23
Prescription pharmaceutical sales and growth rate analysis, 2001-13 24
Product analysis 26
Product analysis, 2001-07 26
Product analysis, 2007-13 28
Therapy area analysis 31
Therapy area analysis, 2001-07 32
Therapy area analysis, 2007-13 34
Therapy area focus, 2001-13 35
Geographic analysis 36
Geographic analysis, 2001-07 37
Geographic analysis, 2007-13 38
Geographic focus, 2001-13 40
Launch/core/expiry analysis 41
Explanation of launch/core/expiry analysis 41
Launch analysis, 2007-13 42
Core analysis, 2007-13 43
Expiry analysis, 2007-13 44
Launch/core/expiry configuration, 2007-13 45
Molecule type analysis 46
Molecule type analysis, 2001-07 47
Molecule type analysis, 2007-13 48
Externalization analysis 50
Externalization analysis, 2001-07 51
Externalization analysis, 2007-13 52
CHAPTER 6 COMPANY FINANCIALS 54
Key findings 54
Reconciliation between PharmaVitae-formatted prescription pharma sales and company-reported total sales, 2001-07 55
Financial statements, 2001-07 56
Profit and loss account, 2001-07 56
Balance sheet, 2001-07 58
Operating costs and profit analysis 60
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2001-07 61
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2001-07 62
Operating cost ratio and profit margin analysis, 2007-13 63
Operating costs and profit analysis, 2007-13 65
Return on capital employed analysis 66
Capital employed analysis, 2001-07 67
Return on capital employed (RoCE) analysis, 2001-07 69
CHAPTER 7 KEY PRODUCTS AND COMPETITORS 72
Key findings 72
Overview 73
Central nervous system 74
Lexapro 74
Overview 74
Sales forecast 75
Namenda 79
Overview 79
Sales forecast 80
milnacipran 82
Overview 82
Sales forecast 83
Cardiovascular 86
Bystolic 86
Overview 86
Sales forecast 87
Respiratory 88
aclidinium 88
Overview 88
Sales forecast 89
CHAPTER 8 APPENDIX 90
R&D pipeline 90
References 90
Abbreviations 91
Exchange rates 92
List of Tables
Table 1: Forest - PharmaVitae forecasts at a glance 7
Table 2: Forest key product developments, Q1-3 2008 15
Table 3: Forest product deals and alliances, Q1-3 2008 16
Table 4: Forest technology deals and alliances, Q1-3 2008 17
Table 5: Forest M&A activity, Q1-3 2008 17
Table 6: Forest company announcements, Q1-3 2008 18
Table 7: Forest future product milestones, 2008-10 18
Table 8: Forest product portfolio overview ($m), 2001-07 26
Table 9: Forest product portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 28
Table 10: Forest product portfolio overview ($m), 2001-07 32
Table 11: Forest product portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 34
Table 12: Forest portfolio overview by geographic region ($m), 2001-07 37
Table 13: Forest portfolio overview by geographic region ($m), 2007-13 38
Table 14: Forest launch portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 42
Table 15: Forest core portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 43
Table 16: Forest expiry portfolio overview ($m), 2007-13 44
Table 17: Forest portfolio overview by molecule type ($m), 2001-07 47
Table 18: Forest product portfolio overview by molecule type ($m), 2007-13 48
Table 19: Forest product portfolio overview by source ($m), 2001-07 51
Table 20: Forest product portfolio overview by source ($m), 2007-13 52
Table 21: Total Forest sales by business unit ($m), 2001-07 55
Table 22: Forest profit and loss account ($m), 2001-07 56
Table 23: Forest balance sheet ($m), 2001-07 58
Table 24: Forest operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-07 61
Table 25: Forest operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2001-07 62
Table 26: Forest operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2007-13 63
Table 27: Forest operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2007-13 65
Table 28: Forest capital employed ($m), 2001-07 67
Table 29: Forest EBIT return on capital employed ($m), 2001-07 69
Table 30: Forest EBIT pre-tax return/Capital employed driver analysis (%), 2001-07 70
Table 31: Key products overview 73
Table 32: Lexapro: overview 74
Table 33: Lexapro: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 75
Table 34: Namenda: overview 79
Table 35: Namenda: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 80
Table 36: milnacipran: overview 82
Table 37: milnacipran: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 83
Table 38: Bystolic: overview 86
Table 39: Bystolic: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 87
Table 40: aclidinium: overview 88
Table 41: aclidinium: sales forecast ($m), 2007-13 89
Table 42: Forest's R&D pipeline (Phase I-registration) 90
Table 43: Exchange rates, 2007 92
List of Figures
Figure 1: Forest prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2001-13 5
Figure 2: Forest's financial performance ($m), 2001-13 6
Figure 3: Forest's gap to 2007-13 double-digit sales growth 9
Figure 4: Forest SWOT analysis 10
Figure 5: Current corporate structure 21
Figure 6: Forest prescription pharmaceutical performance, sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2001-13 24
Figure 7: Forest key sales growth driver & resistors ($m), 2001-07 27
Figure 8: Forest key sales growth drivers & resistors ($m), 2007-13 29
Figure 9: Forest prescription pharmaceutical sales by therapy area ($m), 2001-13 31
Figure 10: Forest prescription pharma sales by therapy area (% of total), 2001-13 35
Figure 11: Forest prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region ($m), 2001-13 36
Figure 12: Forest growth drivers and resistors by geographic region ($m), 2001-07 37
Figure 13: Forest drivers and resistors by geographic region ($m), 2007-13 39
Figure 14: Forest prescription pharmaceutical sales by geographic region (% of total), 2001-13 40
Figure 15: Forest launch/core/expiry configuration ($m), 2007-13 45
Figure 16: Forest prescription pharmaceutical sales by molecule type ($m), 2001-13 46
Figure 17: Forest growth drivers and resistors by molecule type ($m), 2007-13 49
Figure 18: Forest prescription pharmaceutical sales by source ($m), 2001-13 50
Figure 19: Forest growth drivers and resistors by source ($m), 2001-07 51
Figure 20: Forest growth drivers and resistors by source ($m), 2007-13 53
Figure 21: Forest operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-13 60
Figure 22: Forest operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2001-13 64
Figure 23: Forest return on capital employed, EBIT margin and capital turnover, 2001-07 66
Figure 24: Return on capital employed formula 70
Figure 25: The global antidepressant market, Q3 2003-Q2 2008 76