Executive Summary 7

Business Environment 8

Western Europe Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings .. 8

Western Europe Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings Q3 2008 11

France’s Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings ...... 11

Table: Global Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings – France’s Peer Group . 13

SWOT Analysis . 14

Food And Drink 14

France Food And Drink Industry SWOT .. 14

Mass Grocery Retail ...... 15

France Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT ..... 15

Macroeconomic Outlook ..... 16

Table: France – Macroeconomic Forecasts ...... 18

Food ......19

Industry Forecast Scenario . 19

Food Consumption 19

Table: France Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts .. 19

Prepared Food / Canned Food . 20

Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 20

Confectionery . 20

Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 21

Private Label . 21

Industry Developments . 21

Market Overview 24

Food Production ... 24

Organic.. 26

Prepared Food ...... 26

Drink .....28

Industry Forecast Scenario . 28

Hot Drinks . 28

Table: Hot Drink Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts ... 28

Soft Drinks . 28

Table: Soft Drink Value Sales – Historical Data & Foreca 29

Alcoholic Drinks ... 29

Table: Alcoholic Drink Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts .... 30

Industry Developments . 31

Market Overview 33

Soft Drinks . 33

Alcoholic Drinks ... 33

Agriculture At A Glance ....34

Table: France Agricultural Sub-Sector Production .... 34

Table: France Organic Agricultural Data 34

Table: France Dairy Production, Farming & Consumption 34

Agricultural Commodity Price 35

Mass Grocery Retail .36

Industry Forecast Scenario . 36

Table: France Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format (US$bn) – Historical Data & Forecasts 37
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format .... 37
Industry Developments . 38
Market Overview 40
Table: Structure Of France's MGR Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets .. 42
Table: Structure Of France MGR Market – Sales Value By Format (US$bn) ... 43
Table: Average Value Of Sales Per Outlet (US$mn) By Format 2006 43
Competitive Landscape ....44
Key Players. 44
Food And Drink 44
Table: Key Players In France's Food & Drink Sector – 2006 ... 44
Mass Grocery Retail ...... 45
Table: Key Players In France's Mass Grocery Retail Sector – 2007 45
Table: Key Players In France's Mass Grocery Retail Sector – 2007 (continued) ...... 46
Company Analysis ...... 47
Food ... 47
Groupe Danone 47
Nestlé France . 48
Drink ... 49
LVMH Group (Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton) ... 49
Pernod Ricard 50
Mass Grocery Retail ...... 51
Carrefour... 51
Groupe Auchan ..... 52
Groupe Casino ...... 53
Deep US Recession Scenario .54
Global Scenario 54
Table: World GDP Growth ..... 54
Table: US GDP Growth, Investment Growth And Private Consumption Growth ...... 55
Table: Eurozone GDP Growth 56
Table: Asia, Excluding Japan, GDP Growth ..... 57
Table: China GDP Growth ..... 58
Table: Mexico GDP Growth ... 58
Table: Africa GDP Growth ..... 59
Western Europe Recession Scenario ..... 60
Table: Impact Of Deep US Recession On Total Food Consumption In Selected Western European Markets – Cumulative Difference Between
Core And Recession Scenarios (%) .. 61
Appendix 63
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings .63
Ratings Methodology . 63
Ratings Overview 63
Ratings System ...... 63
Indicators... 63
Limits Of Potential Returns ..... 64
Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns 65
Weighting... 66
Weighting... 66
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary ..67
Food & Drink . 67
Mass Grocery Retail .. 67
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing 69 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .... 69 Sourcing ... 70