CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2
Key findings 2
Historical and forecast ethical sales performance 3
Therapeutic strategy 5
Launch and expiry outlook 10
Externalization, geographic and molecule type strategies 13
Externalization strategy 14
Geographic strategy 15
Molecule type strategy 16
SWOT analysis 17
Strengths 17
Weaknesses 18
Opportunities 19
Threats 21
CHAPTER 2 CORPORATE HISTORY 24
Key findings 24
Background 25
M&A history 25
Wellcome 25
Glaxo 25
Glaxo Wellcome 26
Beecham 26
Smith Kline 26
SmithKline Beecham 27
Key historical drug launches by component GSK companies 28
M&A strategy 29
R&D overview 32
Current corporate structure 34
CHAPTER 3 HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE 35
Key findings 35
Introduction 36
Revenue and growth rate analysis, 2001-06 36
Revenue and growth rate vs. peer set 37
Product analysis, 2001-06 39
Growth drivers 39
Seretide/Advair 39
Avandia 40
Flixotide 40
Lamictal 40
Growth resistors 40
Seroxat 40
Augmentin 41
Serevent 41
Operating revenue and cost analysis, 2001-06 42
Operating revenue/cost analysis 43
CHAPTER 4 FORECAST PERFORMANCE 45
Key findings 45
Introduction 46
Revenue and growth rate, 2006-12 46
Product analysis, 2006-12 48
Growth drivers 53
Tykerb 53
Cervarix 54
Growth resistors 54
Seretide/Advair 54
Avandia 55
Wellbutrin 55
Zofran 56
Imigran 56
Therapy area analysis, 2006-12 58
Oncology 61
Urology & sexual health 61
Infectious disease 62
Respiratory 62
CNS 62
Endocrine, metabolic & genetic disorders 63
Therapy area focus 63
Launches and expiries analysis, 2006-12 68
Launch portfolio 69
Core portfolio 72
Expiry portfolio 74
Launch/core/expiry configuration 77
Externalization analysis, 2006-12 81
Geographic analysis, 2006-12 86
Molecule type analysis, 2006-12 89
CHAPTER 5 KEY PRODUCTS AND COMPETITORS 95
Key findings 95
Overview 96
Respiratory 97
Seretide/Advair 97
Overview 97
Sales forecast 98
Newsflow 98
Oncology 103
Tykerb 103
Overview 103
Sales forecast 104
Newsflow 104
Cervarix 107
Overview 107
Sales forecast 108
Newsflow 108
Zofran 112
Overview 112
Sales forecast 113
Newsflow 113
CNS 115
Lamictal 115
Overview 115
Sales forecast 116
Newsflow 116
Gepirone ER 119
Overview 119
Sales forecast 120
Newsflow 120
Trexima 122
Overview 122
Sales forecast 123
Newsflow 124
Wellbutrin 126
Overview 126
Sales forecast 127
Newsflow 127
Imigran 130
Overview 130
Sales forecast 131
Newsflow 131
Endocrine, metabolic & genetic disorders 133
Avandia 133
Overview 133
Sales forecast 134
Newsflow 135
Infectious disease 139
Rotarix 139
Overview 139
Sales forecast 140
Newsflow 140
CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX 143
IMS vs. company-reported data reconciliation 143
References 146
Datamonitor reports 146
Abbreviations 146
Exchange rates 147
List of Tables
Table 1: Peer set overview 37
Table 2: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-06 42
Table 3: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2001-06 43
Table 4: Product portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 48
Table 5: Therapy area overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 58
Table 6: Launch portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 69
Table 7: Core portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 73
Table 8: Expiry portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 75
Table 9: Externally developed portfolio ($m), 2006-12 81
Table 10: Molecule type overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 89
Table 11: Key products overview 96
Table 12: Seretide/Advair: overview 97
Table 13: Seretide/Advair: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 98
Table 14: Seretide/Advair: news flow 98
Table 15: Tykerb: overview 103
Table 16: Tykerb: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 104
Table 17: Tykerb: news flow 104
Table 18: Cervarix: overview 107
Table 19: Cervarix: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 108
Table 20: Cervarix: news flow 108
Table 21: Zofran: overview 112
Table 22: Zofran: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 113
Table 23: Zofran: news flow 113
Table 24: Lamictal: overview 115
Table 25: Lamictal: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 116
Table 26: Lamictal: news flow 116
Table 27: Gepirone ER: overview 119
Table 28: Gepirone ER: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 120
Table 29: Gepirone ER: news flow 120
Table 30: Trexima: overview 122
Table 31: Trexima: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 123
Table 32: Trexima: news flow 124
Table 33: Wellbutrin: overview 126
Table 34: Wellbutrin: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 127
Table 35: Wellbutrin: news flow 127
Table 36: Imigran: overview 130
Table 37: Imigran: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 131
Table 38: Imigran: news flow 131
Table 39: Avandia: overview 133
Table 40: Avandia: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 134
Table 41: Avandia: news flow 135
Table 42: Rotarix: overview 139
Table 43: Rotarix: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 140
Table 44: Rotarix: news flow 140
Table 45: Exchange rates, 2006 147
List of Figures
Figure 1: Historical and forecast ethical sales performance (% CAGR), GSK and Big Pharma peer set 4
Figure 2: Therapeutic focus vs. Big Pharma peer set (%), 2006 6
Figure 3: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), GSK 10
Figure 4: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), peer set 12
Figure 5: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2006 13
Figure 6: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2012 14
Figure 7: SWOT analysis of GSK 17
Figure 8: M&A/divestment history 27
Figure 9: Revenue & growth rate (ethical sales) ($m), 2001-06 36
Figure 10: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%) vs. peer set, 2001-06 38
Figure 11: Growth drivers/resistor products of historical revenue performance ($m), 2001-06 39
Figure 12: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-06 43
Figure 13: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2001-06 44
Figure 14: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%), 2006-12 46
Figure 15: Top five products by sales ($m), 2006 51
Figure 16: Top five products by sales ($m), 2012 52
Figure 17: Growth drivers and resistors by product, 2006-12 53
Figure 18: Key strategic products, sales ($m), 2006-12 57
Figure 19: Ethical sales by therapy area ($m), 2006-12 59
Figure 20: Growth drivers and resistors by therapy area (%), 2006-12 61
Figure 21: Ethical sales by therapy area ($m), 2006-12 63
Figure 22: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2006 64
Figure 23: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2012 67
Figure 24: Launch schedule, sales ($m), 2006-12 71
Figure 25: Core products sales growth ($m), 2006-12 74
Figure 26: Expiry schedule, sales ($m), 2006-12 76
Figure 27: Launch, core and expiry, sales ($m), 2006-12 78
Figure 28: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), GlaxoSmithKline 79
Figure 29: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), peer set 80
Figure 30: Externalization dependency, sales ($m), 2006-12 82
Figure 31: Growth drivers and resistors, externally vs. internally discovered products, sales ($m), 2006-12 83
Figure 32: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2006 84
Figure 33: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2012 85
Figure 34: Geographical sales breakdown ($m), 2006-12 86
Figure 35: Growth drivers and resistors by geography, sales ($m), 2006-12 87
Figure 36: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2006 88
Figure 37: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2012 89
Figure 38: Growth drivers and resistors by molecule type, sales ($m), 2006-12 91
Figure 39: Molecule type sales breakdown ($m), 2006-12 92
Figure 40: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2006 93
Figure 41: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2012 94
Figure 42: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales discrepancy ($m), 2006 144
Figure 43: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales forecast growth rates (%), 2006-12 145