Executive Summary 7

Business Environment ....8

Regional Food and Drink Business Environment Ratings .. 8

Table: Asia Pacific Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings – Q308 ...... 11

Japan’s Food and Drink Business Environment Rating 11

Table: Global Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings – Japan’s Peer Group 12

SWOT Analysis . 13

Food And Drink 13

Japan Food And Drink SWOT 13

Mass Grocery Retail ...... 14

Japan Mass Grocery Retail SWOT .. 14

Macroeconomic Outlook ..... 15

Table: Japan – Macroeconomic Forecasts . 18

Food ......19

Industry Forecast Scenario . 19

Food Consumption 19

Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts 19

Confectionery . 20

Table: Confectionery Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts 20

Canned Food . 21

Table: Canned Food Sales Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts 21

Trade .. 22

Table: Food & Drink Trade Indicators (US$mn) – Historical Data & Forecasts ..... 22

Industry Developments . 22

Market Overview 24

Food Consumption 24

Table: Japan Consumption Of Dairy Products .. 26

Confectionery . 26

Canned Food . 27

Trade .. 27

Agriculture. 28

Drink .....29

Industry Forecast Scenario . 29

Alcoholic Drinks ... 29

Table: Alcoholic Drinks Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts 30

Hot Drinks . 30

Table: Hot Drinks Indicators – Historical Data & Forecas 30

Soft Drinks . 31

Table: Soft Drinks Indicators – Historical Data & Forecas 31

Industry Developments .. 31

Market Overview 34

Alcoholic Drinks ... 34

Hot Drinks . 35

Soft Drinks . 35

Agriculture At A Glance 37

Table: Japan Agricultural Production By Sub-Sector ('000 Tonnes) 37

Table: Japan Organic Agricultural Data .. 37
Table: Japan Processed Dairy Production ('000 Tonnes, Unless Stated) 37
Agricultural Commodity Price 38
Table: Japan Rural/Urban Breakdown ..... 39
Mass Grocery Retail 40
Industry Forecast Scenario . 40
Table: Japan Mass Grocery Retail Indicators – Sales Value By Format (US$bn) – Historical Data & Forecasts . 41
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts .. 42
Industry Developments . 42
Market Overview 43
Table: Structure Of Japan’s Mass Grocery Retail Market By Estimated Number Of Outlets 46
Table: Structure Of Japan’s Mass Grocery Retail Market, Sales By Format (US$bn) 46
Table: Average Annual Sales Per Outlet By Format (US$mn) .. 46
Competitive Landscape 47
Key Players. 47
Food And Drink 47
Key Players In Japan's Food & Drink Sector – 2007 . 47
Mass Grocery Retail ...... 48
Key Players In Japan's Mass Grocery Retail Sector – 2007 48
Company Analysis ...... 49
Food ... 49
Ajinomoto .. 49
Drink ... 50
Kirin ... 50
Asahi Breweries Ltd 51
Mass Grocery Retail ...... 52
Seven & I Holdings . 52
Lawson Inc. 53
AEON .. 54
Seiyu ... 55
Deep US Recession Scenario .....56
Global Scenario 56
Table: World GDP Growth ..... 56
Table: US GDP Growth, Investment Growth And Private Consumption Growth ...... 57
Table: Eurozone GDP Growth 58
Table: Asia, Excluding Japan, GDP Growth ..... 59
Table: China GDP Growth ..... 60
Table: Mexico GDP Growth ... 60
Table: Africa GDP Growth ..... 61
Asia Pacific Food & Drink Scenario .... 62
Table: Impact of Deep US Recession On Total Food Consumption (US$bn) In Selected Asia Pacific Markets – Cumulative US$ Impact Over 5-
yr Forecast Period 64
Appendix 65
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings ..65
Ratings Methodology . 65
Ratings Overview 65
Ratings System ...... 65
Indicators... 65
Limits Of Potential Returns ..... 66
Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns 67
Weighting... 68 Weighting... 68 BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary .69 Food & Drink . 69 Mass Grocery Retail .. 69 BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing 71 How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .... 71 Sourcing ... 72