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Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2008 (Business Monitor International)
- Market: Energy and Utilities
- Report Title: Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Report Q3 2008
- View Report Summary: View Report Summary
- Report Type: Market Report
- Country: Kazakhstan
- Number of Pages: 101
Executive Summary ....7
SWOT Analysis .....9
Kazakhstan Political SWOT....... 9
Kazakhstan Economic SWOT... 10
Kazakhstan Energy Market Overview ................11
Global Oil Market Overview ..16
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) ...... 17
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d).......... 18
Oil Price Outlook ..19
Waiting For A Correction .. 19
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2007/2008.. 20
Revised Forecasts .............. 20
Table: Oil Price Forecasts....... 21
Regional Energy Market Overview 22
Oil Supply And Demand ..... 22
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) . 23
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d)..... 24
Oil: Downstream ............... 25
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) ............ 25
Gas Supply And Demand ... 26
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) .... 26
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm)........ 27
Liquefied Natural Gas ........ 28
Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) ( 28
Business Environment Ranking .29
Central/Eastern Europe Region .... 29
Composite Scores .......... 29
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating.... 30
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Ratin 31
Upstream Scores ........... 31
Downstream Scores ...... 32
Kazakhstan Upstream Rating – Overview...... 32
Kazakhstan Upstream Rating – Potential Returns ............... 32
Kazakhstan Upstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns.. 32
Kazakhstan Downstream Rating – Overview. 33
Kazakhstan Downstream Rating – Potential Returns........... 33
Kazakhstan Downstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns ............... 33
Risk Summary .....34
Political ....... 34
Economic ..... 34
Business Environment ........ 34
Industry Forecast Scenario ..35
Oil and Gas Reserves ......... 35
Oil Supply and Demand ..... 35
Gas Supply and Demand .... 36
Refining and Oil Products Trade .. 37
Revenues/Import Costs ....... 37
Table: Kazakhstan Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts 38
Other Energy .... 39
Table: Kazakhstan Other Energy – Historic Data & Fore 40
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario................ 40
Long-term Oil & Gas Outlook ...... 40
Macroeconomic Outlook ...............42
Table: Economic Activity......... 43
Regional Case Study ...44
Gazprom In The CIS And Europe . 44
Competitive Landscape ...51
Executive Summary ............ 51
Key Players – Kazakhstan Oil & Gas sector. 52
Overview/State Role ........... 52
Table: Key Upstream Players .. 55
Table: Key Downstream Players .. 55
Company Monitor ......56
KazMunaiGaz (KMG) ........ 56
Chevron ....... 60
Eni Kazakhstan . 63
BG Kazakhstan . 66
ExxonMobil Kazakhstan .... 69
Shell Kazakhstan ................ 71
Lukoil Kazakhstan .............. 73
PetroKazakhstan ................ 75
KNOC – Summary ........ 78
ConocoPhillips – Summary...... 78
BP – Summary .............. 78
Total – Summary ........... 78
Rosneft – Summary ....... 79
Tethys Petroleum – Summary .. 79
Roxi Petroleum – Summary...... 79
Others – Summary ........ 80
Glossary of Terms .....82
Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology ..83
Introduction . 83
Ratings Overview ............... 83
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure ......... 84
Indicators ..... 84
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology ... 85
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology ............... 86
Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-term forecasts ........88
Global Oil Demand ............ 88
Global Oil Demand (000b/d) ... 88
Global Oil Production (000b/d) .... 89
Global Oil Supply .............. 89
Global Gas Demand .......... 90
Global Gas Demand (bcm) ...... 90
Global Gas Supply ............. 90
Global Gas Production (bcm).. 91
Regional Oil Demand ........ 92
CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d) .... 92
Regional Oil Supply ........... 92
CEE Oil Production (000b/d) .. 93
Regional Refining Capacity .......... 93
CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) ............. 94
Regional Gas Demand ....... 94
CEE Gas Consumption (bcm) .. 95
Regional Gas Supply .......... 95
CEE Gas Production (bcm) ..... 96
Kazakhstan Country Overview...... 96
Kazakhstan Oil & Gas – Long-term Forecasts ... 97
Kazakhstan Other Energy – Long-term Forecasts ............... 98
Methodology & Risks To Forecasts ... 98
BMI Forecast Modelling ...99
How we generate our industry forecasts ............. 99
Energy Industry ............... 100
Cross checks ... 100
Sources ...... 100
SWOT Analysis .....9
Kazakhstan Political SWOT....... 9
Kazakhstan Economic SWOT... 10
Kazakhstan Energy Market Overview ................11
Global Oil Market Overview ..16
Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d) ...... 17
Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d).......... 18
Oil Price Outlook ..19
Waiting For A Correction .. 19
Table: Crude Price Assumptions 2007/2008.. 20
Revised Forecasts .............. 20
Table: Oil Price Forecasts....... 21
Regional Energy Market Overview 22
Oil Supply And Demand ..... 22
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Consumption (000b/d) . 23
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Production (000b/d)..... 24
Oil: Downstream ............... 25
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) ............ 25
Gas Supply And Demand ... 26
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Consumption (bcm) .... 26
Table: Central/Eastern Europe Gas Production (bcm)........ 27
Liquefied Natural Gas ........ 28
Table: Central/Eastern Europe LNG Exports/(Imports) ( 28
Business Environment Ranking .29
Central/Eastern Europe Region .... 29
Composite Scores .......... 29
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating.... 30
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Ratin 31
Upstream Scores ........... 31
Downstream Scores ...... 32
Kazakhstan Upstream Rating – Overview...... 32
Kazakhstan Upstream Rating – Potential Returns ............... 32
Kazakhstan Upstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns.. 32
Kazakhstan Downstream Rating – Overview. 33
Kazakhstan Downstream Rating – Potential Returns........... 33
Kazakhstan Downstream Rating – Risks to Potential Returns ............... 33
Risk Summary .....34
Political ....... 34
Economic ..... 34
Business Environment ........ 34
Industry Forecast Scenario ..35
Oil and Gas Reserves ......... 35
Oil Supply and Demand ..... 35
Gas Supply and Demand .... 36
Refining and Oil Products Trade .. 37
Revenues/Import Costs ....... 37
Table: Kazakhstan Oil & Gas – Historic Data & Forecasts 38
Other Energy .... 39
Table: Kazakhstan Other Energy – Historic Data & Fore 40
Key Risks to BMI’s Forecast Scenario................ 40
Long-term Oil & Gas Outlook ...... 40
Macroeconomic Outlook ...............42
Table: Economic Activity......... 43
Regional Case Study ...44
Gazprom In The CIS And Europe . 44
Competitive Landscape ...51
Executive Summary ............ 51
Key Players – Kazakhstan Oil & Gas sector. 52
Overview/State Role ........... 52
Table: Key Upstream Players .. 55
Table: Key Downstream Players .. 55
Company Monitor ......56
KazMunaiGaz (KMG) ........ 56
Chevron ....... 60
Eni Kazakhstan . 63
BG Kazakhstan . 66
ExxonMobil Kazakhstan .... 69
Shell Kazakhstan ................ 71
Lukoil Kazakhstan .............. 73
PetroKazakhstan ................ 75
KNOC – Summary ........ 78
ConocoPhillips – Summary...... 78
BP – Summary .............. 78
Total – Summary ........... 78
Rosneft – Summary ....... 79
Tethys Petroleum – Summary .. 79
Roxi Petroleum – Summary...... 79
Others – Summary ........ 80
Glossary of Terms .....82
Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology ..83
Introduction . 83
Ratings Overview ............... 83
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure ......... 84
Indicators ..... 84
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology ... 85
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology ............... 86
Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-term forecasts ........88
Global Oil Demand ............ 88
Global Oil Demand (000b/d) ... 88
Global Oil Production (000b/d) .... 89
Global Oil Supply .............. 89
Global Gas Demand .......... 90
Global Gas Demand (bcm) ...... 90
Global Gas Supply ............. 90
Global Gas Production (bcm).. 91
Regional Oil Demand ........ 92
CEE Oil Consumption (000b/d) .... 92
Regional Oil Supply ........... 92
CEE Oil Production (000b/d) .. 93
Regional Refining Capacity .......... 93
CEE Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d) ............. 94
Regional Gas Demand ....... 94
CEE Gas Consumption (bcm) .. 95
Regional Gas Supply .......... 95
CEE Gas Production (bcm) ..... 96
Kazakhstan Country Overview...... 96
Kazakhstan Oil & Gas – Long-term Forecasts ... 97
Kazakhstan Other Energy – Long-term Forecasts ............... 98
Methodology & Risks To Forecasts ... 98
BMI Forecast Modelling ...99
How we generate our industry forecasts ............. 99
Energy Industry ............... 100
Cross checks ... 100
Sources ...... 100
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